**Randizzle's Week 13 NCAAF**(70-22-4)(76%)(+96.9 Units)

[Randizzle14]

Alright. Here we are again in, and fortunately I can say,"We had another GREAT WEEK last week". Started the week games off slow going 0-2-0, but hit the Friday game and Swept the Board on Saturday to finish 5-2-0.

As I have said, this late in the season, the lines are getting Sharp. Becoming more and more difficult to find value in these lines. But, I will attempt to bring atleast 5-7 plays this week. Lines just came out, and I will analyze the games and give a play if I have one this early.

Let's have ANOTHER good week and try and beat the books yet again.

Week by Week Breakdown:

Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) .........................5-1-0
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)


Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ..................5-1-1
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)


Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units) ................5-0-0
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)

Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units) .................13-5-1
Opinions: 8-2-1

Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units) ................10-3-0
Opinions: 3-0-0

Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ...................4-3-0
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)

Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units) ..................5-5-0
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)

Week 9:
Premium Play:0-0-0
Regular Plays: 11-1-0 (+19.6 Units) ..............11-1-0

Week 10:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Plays: 5-0-1 (+13 Units).....................5-0-1

Week 11:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Play: 2-1-0 (+1.4 Units).....................2-1-0

Week 12:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Plays: 5-2-0 (+3.4 Units).....................5-2-0



OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 54-19-3 (75%) (+77.4 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-1 (85%)

Season YTD= 70-22-4 (76.1%) (+96.9 Units)

GL, Dizz :toast:

 

[wilheim]

NOTICE: to all visitors to this thread....

This thread is only for Randizzle14 to post his plays in. Please post any remarks, questions or comments in the discussion thread right beside this thread.


http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=631433


Violaters will be banned from this particular forum.


Thank you, wilheim.

 

[Randizzle14]

First Play

Tuesday
No. Illinois (-3.5) (3 Units) :toast:

I will have a writ-up possiblt tomorrow, but don't hold me to it. Have 4 tests this week.

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

No. Illinois (-3) (3 Units) *Now available at most books.

GL,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Game

Tuesday Game
--------------
N ILLINOIS (5 - 5) at KENT ST (3 - 7)
Week 13 Tuesday, 11/18/2008 7:00 PM

Kent is coming into this game off of three straight explosive offensive performances. They have looked better as of late and I will not take that away from them. But if you look closely, it's not like they are just running up and down the field on everyone. In their last 3 games, their defense has produced 12 takeaways which undoubtedly has lead to their recent success. Will this trend continue?? I don't believe so. Their previous 7 games combined they managed only 9 Takeaways. Additionally, I feel N. Illinois has not got a fair shake for their two recent losses. Ball St. and CMU are both solid football teams this year. The fact remains that statistically overall, this N. Illinois team is still the better team, and coming off back to back losses will be hungry for that 6th win this week against Kent. I lost with N. Illinois last week, but believe you must view each game for what the current situation is. Also, I lost 2 of 3 weekday games last week. But I am confident to place my own money on this side, so play it, fade it, or don't wager.

Trends:
KENT ST is 1-11 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 4-14 ATS in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 4-1 against the spread versus KENT ST
Northern Illinois Huskies are 10-4-0 ATS After 2 Losses (3 -> 6.5)
Kent Golden Flashes are 35-51-1 ATS After 1 Home (All Lines)

I am Taking No. Illinois -3 (-120)* (3 Units) :toast:

*Is availabe for all of your for -3 (-110), I got bad juice due to predicting this line to go other way.

Anyway,

Good Luck,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Game
--------------
N ILLINOIS (5 - 5) at KENT ST (3 - 7)
Week 13 Tuesday, 11/18/2008 7:00 PM

Kent is coming into this game off of three straight explosive offensive performances. They have looked better as of late and I will not take that away from them. But if you look closely, it's not like they are just running up and down the field on everyone. In their last 3 games, their defense has produced 12 takeaways which undoubtedly has lead to their recent success. Will this trend continue?? I don't believe so. Their previous 7 games combined they managed only 9 Takeaways. Additionally, I feel N. Illinois has not got a fair shake for their two recent losses. Ball St. and CMU are both solid football teams this year. The fact remains that statistically overall, this N. Illinois team is still the better team, and coming off back to back losses will be hungry for that 6th win this week against Kent. I lost with N. Illinois last week, but believe you must view each game for what the current situation is. Also, I lost 2 of 3 weekday games last week. But I am confident to place my own money on this side, so play it, fade it, or don't wager.

Trends:
KENT ST is 1-11 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
KENT ST is 4-14 ATS in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
N ILLINOIS is 4-1 against the spread versus KENT ST
Northern Illinois Huskies are 10-4-0 ATS After 2 Losses (3 -> 6.5)
Kent Golden Flashes are 35-51-1 ATS After 1 Home (All Lines)

I am Taking No. Illinois -3 (-120)* (3 Units) :toast:

*Is availabe for all of your for -3 (-110), I got bad juice due to predicting this line to go other way.

Anyway,

Good Luck,
Dizz

(WINNER) +3 Units :toast:

A Great way to start off this week. Congrats to all who followed. Glad we ALL made money.

Good Luck the rest of the week,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Plays

Will have write-ups later in week, but i'm wagering these now. May add a couple more.

North Carolina -11 (3 Units)
Mississippi +4.5 (3 Units)
Clemson -2.5 (2 Units)

Good Luck,
Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Wednesday Game

Possibly forcing one here, as I really want some action tonight. But from what I have researched, I believe Ball St. has a very good chance of covering -6.5 points. Playing it small.

I'm Taking Ball St. -6.5 (1 Unit) :toast:

Maybe a write-up later, but maybe not tonight. Too much time.

GL,
Dizz

 

[wilheim]

Fyi

NOTICE: to all visitors to this thread....
This thread is only for Randizzle14 to post his plays in. Please post any remarks, questions or comments in the discussion thread right beside this thread.


http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=631433


Violaters will be banned from this particular forum.


Thank you, wilheim.

 

[Randizzle14]

Weekday Update

No. Illinois -3 (-120)* (3 Units) (WINNER)
I'm Taking Ball St. -6.5 (1 Unit) (WINNER)

This week: (2-0-0) +4 Units :toast:

Pulled that one out by the hair of our chinny chin chin. Congrats to all who made some cash again tonight.
This week has started off rather well.

Having a bit of a run right now:
Last 7 Games: (7-0-0) 100%
Last 17 Games: (14-3-1) 82%
Last 33 Games: (29-4-1) 88%

Hope the run continues, but do not forget about Money Management. I'm sure you are all tired of seeing me say this, but you can lose all your winnings in just a few games by becoming over confident.

Good Luck,
Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Ok, again I told myself to wait for this weekend. But I feel that after thorough research that there is enough value to play for 1 Unit again.

I will be playing Georgia Tech -3 (1 Unit)

Good Luck, and tread lightly.

Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Thursday Update

No. Illinois -3 (-120)* (3 Units) (WINNER)
I'm Taking Ball St. -6.5 (1 Unit) (WINNER)
Georgia Tech -3 (1 Unit) (WINNER)

This week: (3-0-0) +5 Units :toast:

Georgia Tech turned out to be an easy winner. Wish I had a couple more units on it, but oh well. Cannot be greedy. I'll take another win. Week has been great so far. I can only hope this weekends games finish it strong. "Money Management", don't forget.

The run continues:
Last 8 Games: (8-0-0) 100%
Last 18 Games: (15-3-1) 83%
Last 34 Games: (30-4-1) 88%

Good Luck,
Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Games

NC STATE (4 - 6) at N CAROLINA (7 - 3)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/22/2008 12:00 PM
----------------------------------------------
I'm sure alot of you are wondering why on earth anyone would lay this much wood on a In-State rivalry. Especially when NC State is coming off of back to back wins and UNC ending up on the short end of the stick last week against Maryland. Frankly, I had some concerns but I feel that the research I have seen justifies this play. I have been capping these games the same way all year and it has worked for me very well. Should not steer away just because of small intangibles. UNC's "?" in this game is wheather or not T.J. Yates gets the start, and if he does how will he perform? I believe he will start and will play very well. If Sexton gets the start I am still comfortable with this game. He has proven he can manage this football team going 4-2 as the starter. He had a poor outing last week, but nothing to worry about. Defense wins games, and UNC definitly has the advantage in this catergory. Allowing just 18PPG to NCST's 28PPG, and also having the advantage in nearly every major defensive statictical catergory. Also,(and you knew I would point this out) Turnovers is a huge key in this game and ALL games. NCST has vaey close to a 1:1 ratio, and UNC is right at a 2:1 Ratio. BIG difference this late into season. I'm not big on revenge or anything, but UNC will be looking to get back at the Wolfpack for last year losing 27-31.

Trends:
N CAROLINA is 11-5 against the spread versus NC STATE
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss
Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than
100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Wolfpack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Wolfpack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings against UNC.

I am Taking North Carolina -11 (3 Units) :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Games

OLE MISS (6 - 4) at LSU (7 - 3)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/22/2008 3:30 PM
------------------------------------------
Ok. While watching last weeks game against Troy, I told myself if LSU is giving any more than 3 points to Ole Miss next week Im on it. And it happened. So here I am. The fact is, the key position to every offense (after the O-Line) is th QB. And we have an absolute mismatch. Jevan Snead (transfer from Texas) may not be a Colt Mccoy, but he does know how to manage an effiecent offense and most importantly, smarter with the football. Jarrett Lee, (QB for LSU) on the other hand has thrown 13 TD passes and 15 INT, of which i'm not sure how many went back for TD's. Plus, even if LSU pulls this game out, the Rebels will be right there as they have proven throughout the course of this season. They are currently 6-4-0, but has anyone watched this team? They are scrappy, their biggest loss this season was by 7 Pts. That's one possession. Let me show you.

At Wake Forest: 28-30 L
Host Vanderbilt: 17-23 L
Host S.Carolina: 24-31 L
At Alabama Tide:20-24L

There are their four losses on the season. See what I mean?? They play with EVERYONE they face. Plus, when the Rebels go to Tiger Stadium they either win, or lose by 3 points or less over the last 10 years. Also, (and some may disagree) I believe Ole Miss have a coaching advantage as well. Houston Nutt has proven that he can take a program and turn them into winners. Les Miles on the other hand was GIVEN a Grade A+ program by Nick Saban, and although he did cash in on it, I feel it is now on the downswing as I thought it would be at some point with him at the reigns. Both teams have exceptional rush defense. Mississippi is ranked 13th allowing 103.4 RYPG, and LSU is 15th allowing 105 RYPG. That tells me that both of these teams are going to have to rely on their QB in this game, and we have already establised the advantage there. I'll gladly take the points.

Trends:
LSU is 0-9 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 4-14 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.9 yards/play
LSU is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
OLE MISS is 11-5 against the spread versus LSU.

Coaching Trends:
Miles is 0-10 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record as the coach of LSU.
Nutt is 19-7 ATS as a road underdog in all games he has coached.

I am Taking Ole Miss +4.5 (4 Units) :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Games

TEXAS TECH (10 - 0) at OKLAHOMA (9 - 1)
Week 13 Saturday, 11/22/2008 8:00 PM
--------------------------------------------

"Game Notes:Their may be encounters that will mean more this weekend to fans of particular teams, but no game will have greater importance on the national scope than this Big 12 battle. Texas Tech can end some the drama by taking down once-beaten Oklahoma and essentially winning the Big 12 South. The Red Raiders are 5-4 ATS on the road versus ranked teams the last decade. Oklahoma can make a mess of the Big 12 South with a win and are 7-3 ATS against ranked teams. The Oklahoma offense has been boiling hot having averaged 47.3 points per game in the first half! The Sooners are 20-12 ATS in home finales at Norman."

My Take: Oklahoma IS the Superior team here. (yes I am a fan, but a realistic one) for example, Florida is a Superior team to OU right now. Just showing you all I am a realist. Not just a fan. Anyway, back to the game at hand. Texas Tech is having by far their best season in Red Raider history. They have proven they are one of the TOP teams in the country and deserve all the recognition they have been getting. Unfortunately for them, they are 3rd best team in possibly what may be the best conference in D-1 football History.(Big XII South). The road they have traveled to be where they are has not been too challenging. Their only two noteable wins are: 1.Texas, who they beat last second IN LUBBOCK. 2. OK. State, which they also played in the black hole. I'm not taking anything away from this team, plain and simple, they are a great football team. But they have not had to play this caliber of an offense OR play in this type of an environment ALL season. I don't think they are up to the challenge. Oh yeah, I didn't say this because everyone knows the whole stoops being 59-2 as Head Coach in Norman. WOW!!

Honestly, I see this game one of two ways. Either a close shootout with OU winning by 7-10, or a potential Blowout with OU cleaning up and getting a 17-20 Point victory. Call me crazy, and I probably am, but this is my opinion and am entitled to it.

(To all who follow me: Although I am trying to be realistic, this could be somewhat of a Homer play. My thoughts and analysis could be skewed by emotional wants. I usually do not wager on an Oklahoma game. I think I have once all year. But I could not resist here due to the magnitude of this game.)

Trends:
Play Against - A road team (TEXAS TECH) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (>=34 PPG), after scoring 37 points or more last game.
(48-18 since 1992.) (72.7%)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (17-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (23-9).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (37-14).

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (OKLAHOMA) - after gaining >6 and allowing <2 rush yards/attempt last game.
(26-6 since 1992.) (81.2%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-2).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-2).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (16-3).

OKLAHOMA is 7-0 ATS after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 7-0 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in 3 consecutive games
OKLAHOMA is 14-4 ATS after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA is 9-5 against the spread versus TEXAS TECH

I am Taking Oklahoma Sooners -6.5 (4 Units) :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Games

It's Late, and do not want too do anymore write-ups. Most people do not read them anyway, I'm pretty sure they just want the play.

I am Taking Clemson -2.5 (2 Units):toast:

Note*: All lines posted were lines I got on Tuesday Night. If you scroll up you can see when I posted these.
To Clarify on Oklahoma/TTech game (because I thought it was obvious but I want too make sure). I bought Oklahoma from -7 to -6.5 (-120). It is your choice wheather you play it at -7 or -6.5.

GL this weekend,
Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Update

Halfway through the day, and UNC layed an egg that I did not expect. However, Clemson performed well.
Clemson -2.5 (2 Units) (WINNER)
UNC -11 (3 Units) (loss)

Pending:
Ole Miss +4.5 (4 Units)
Oklahoma -6.5 (4 Units)

GL,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Adding One Play

I am Taking Florida St. -1.5 (2 Units) :toast:

Tread lightly here.

Am taking the lady out to eat. Will be back for OU/Tech.

Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Week 13 Update

No. Illinois -3 (-120)* (3 Units) (WINNER)
Ball St. -6.5 (1 Unit) (WINNER)
Georgia Tech -3 (1 Unit) (WINNER)
Clemson -2.5 (2 Units) (WINNER)
UNC -11 (3 Units) (loss)
Ole Miss +4.5 (4 Units) (WINNER)
Florida St. -1.5 (2 Units)(WINNER)
Oklahoma -6.5 (4 Units)(WINNER)

Week 13: (7-1-0) +13.7 Units :toast:

YTD Record: (77-23-4) (77%)(+110.6 Units) :toast:

Note*: That's 100 official plays this season and 77 Winners. That feels nice. Congrats to all who followed this week.

The Run Continues:
Last 13 Games: (12-1-0) 92%:toast:
Last 23 Games: (19-4-1) 83%:toast:
Last 39 Games: (34-5-1) 87%:toast:

Just one week left in the regular season. Hope to finish strong.

Good Luck,
Dizz

Oh Yeah....SOONERS ARE HANDS DOWN BEST TEAM IN THE NATION!!!!! BOOOOMMEEERRRR!!!!!! :aktion033