**Randizzle's Week 12 NCAAF**(65-20-4)(76%)(+93.5 Units)**

[Randizzle14]

Hello All. Well last week was interesting to say the least. Between dealing with DRAMA, Being Impersonated, Sharp Lines, and taking heat because of the new Forum, I needed a break, So I took one. Ended up keeping Original Wagers early in the week and not adding any additional Plays. Went 2-1-0 (66%). I understand I WILL be criticized dramatically. Many will praise me when I'm up, but if I have one bad week, all the jealous haters and/or "Non Money Management" victims will be bashing. All I will say is that I am not concerned with you and it will not affect me in the slightest. I will not respond individually to any such comments, so if you think im horrible, fade me and you can win 24% of your games.

That being said, that's 10 straight Weeks at .500 or above. Not once this season have I lost more games in a week than I won. While there are still a couple weeks left and the possibility does exist, I am not concerned. It can, and May happen, but I am confident in my Handicapping and believe each week presents a new and equal opportunity. Let's plan on continued success, keep things in perspective, and continue "Money Management".

Week by Week Breakdown:

Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) .........................5-1-0
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)


Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ..................5-1-1
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)


Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units) ................5-0-0
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)

Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units) .................13-5-1
Opinions: 8-2-1

Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units) ................10-3-0
Opinions: 3-0-0

Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ...................4-3-0
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)

Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units) ..................5-5-0
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)

Week 9:
Premium Play:0-0-0
Regular Plays: 11-1-0 (+19.6 Units) ..............11-1-0

Week 10:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Plays: 5-0-1 (+13 Units).....................5-0-1

Week 11:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Play: 2-1-0 (+1.4 Units).....................2-1-0

OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 49-17-3 (74%) (+72.8 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-1 (85%)

Season YTD= 65-20-4 (76.1%) (+93.5 Units) :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Early Plays:

Plays:
1. Ball St. -16 (3 Units)
2. N. Illinois -3 (3 Units)

Leans:
Not posting Leans this week. By the time I decide on them, they have moved 2-3 points out of my favor. So, will update when they become plays. Will put out all initial leans by Thursday afternoon.

Note*: Will have Write-ups on these games Tomorrow. :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Game

Tuesday Game
-------------------------------------
BALL ST (9 - 0) at MIAMI OHIO (2 - 7)
Week 12 Tuesday, 11/11/2008 7:00 PM

Ball St. is coming off probably their most impressive victory of the season beating up on N. Illinois 45-14(Giving up a meaningless score in the final 2 minutes of the 4th qtr.) When I first saw the line to this game, I took a double take. -16?? It was obvious, Ball St. was undervalued by the linesmakers in this game. Ball St. is undefeated this season and thrashing EVERY opponent they face(Granted its weak competition, but so is Miami (OH)). Ball St. have an underrated Qb in Nate Davis who completed an impressive 18-22 for 300 yards and 4TDs last week vs N. Illinois. Everyone knows they have an explosive offense this season, but I have been impressed with their Defense of late. I can only assume the linesmakers were thinking this could be a look ahead situation for Ball St. when releasing this line as they face C. Michigan next week for what could determine the outcome of the MAC. In regards to this situation, Ball State coach Brady Hoke said, "No question, you are always worried and concerned," "That is where the leadership of our seniors and guys that have played a lot of football comes in." Miami, which is coming off a 37-17 loss at Buffalo, also will have to contend with Ball State running back MiQuale Lewis, the fifth-leading rusher in the FBS with 1,108 yards and 15 touchdowns. The Cardinals will be aimed for revenge as the Red Hawks edged out Ball State, 14 to 13, in Muncie last season on Brandon Murphy's 6-yard TD run with 17 seconds remaining. Ball St. takes care of the football giving up just 8 turnovers all season and managing 17 Takeaways. Miami has 20 Giveaways, and just 10 Takeaways. Fact is Ball St. dominates every aspect of this game. All these key catergories are not only in Ball St. favor, but absolutely dominated by the Cardinals: YPR,YPA, TO Ratio, and Turnovers. I can only imagaine a 21+ point victory, but that is just speculation.

Trends:
BALL ST is 11-2 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 10-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs over the last 3 seasons.
BALL ST is 6-0 ATS in road games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
Hoke is 14-2 ATS off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of BALL ST.
Montgomery is 4-13 ATS off 1 or more straight overs as the coach of MIAMI OHIO.

Trends Pertaining to the Line:
Ball State Cardinals are 6-1-0 ATS As Favorite (14 -> 16.5)
Ball State Cardinals are 9-2-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Ball State Cardinals are 12-4-0 ATS After 2 Home (All Lines)

My Power Rankings:
Ball St.: 27th
Miami (OH): 117th

My Effiency Ratings:
Ball St.: 26th
Miami (OH): 118th

I am Taking Ball St. -16 (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -20] :toast:

GL,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Plays:
1. Ball St. -16 (3 Units) (loss)
2. N. Illinois -3 (3 Units) (Pending)

GL,
Dizz

 

[wilheim]

Notice to all visitors to this thread.

This thread is only for Randizzle14 to post his plays in. Please post any remarks, questions or comments in the discussion thread right beside this thread.


http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=631433


Violaters will be banned from this particular forum.


Thank you, wilheim.

 

[Randizzle14]

Alright. This is getting ridiculous. Allow me to clear things up.

I have always told each and every one of you i'm a straight up and honest guy, nothing changes here. In regards to The write-up I had on Ball St.

First of all, I find it hilarious that someone is actually making a big deal over a write-up when the only thing with relevance is the PICK itself. Secondly, the way I handicap games is mathematical, situational, and on a "Value" system I created.
The write-ups are researched information that I think is useful in gaining knowledge of each individual game. I came upon a good preview of the game for Tuesday night and decided to incooperate and "SHARE" that information with this forum. Do you really expect me to see EVERY D1 school game, record the stats by hand, and have a unique write-up on each game? GET REAL. All Handicapping write-ups are FILLED with information from other sources. Do I need to post in MLA or APA with sources on a sports forum??

I ADMIT it. YOU GOT ME. I am 100% guilty of being a scumbag who does research and breaks down games to pick Winners at OVER 75% and then I have the Audacity to share that information with "strangers" on a forum that don't pay me squat, but instead find ANY possible reason to complain and get under my skin. Damn, you pegged me. I feel like such a Loser.

Jealousy everywhere I go, and the funny thing is it's usually the guys with 15,000+ posts who are rarely in the Sports Forums contributing to anyone. Instead, they "Hang Out" in the "off-Topic" areas all day every day and get jealous when others get the attention.

All I will say in ending is this:

Anyone who wants to "Hate", Gripe, or complain about how my work is done do the following and I will listen:

1. Post 85 consecutive plays, of which rouglhy 80% have detailed write-ups. And Hit 75+%. (Good Luck)
2. If you cannot achieve step 1 do this. If you can FIND ANYONE who has posted 85 consecutive plays, of which rouglhy 80% have detailed write-ups. And Hit 75+%. (Tout, non-tout, Anyone).

I doubt either of those things EVER happen. So until it does I'm done with the Pricks on this website.

 

[Randizzle14]

Wednesday Game

Wednesday Game
-----------------
C MICHIGAN (7 - 2) at N ILLINOIS (5 - 4)
Week 12 Wednesday, 11/12/2008 8:00 PM

I believe C. Michigan is going to be looking ahead this game. Sure it would be great for them to go into the Ball St. game next week undefeated in the MAC, but it really doesn't matter. If they lose this game and then beat Ball St. head to head, then they have the advantage with both having one conference loss. That aside, I feel N. Illinois is the better team anyway. Ground game is important, and the Huskies definitly have the edge at Home averaging 5.4 YPR and CMU gaining just over 2.5 YPR on the road. Also, one must factor in that this is CMU's 3rd straight game on the road and they won their previous two by a total of 4 points. Yes N.Illinois got destroyed by Ball St. last week, but they need another win to become bowl eligible. The Huskies have owned this matchup in the past going 9-1 SU, and 8-2 ATS. At home they are 5-0 ATS in last 5. C. Michigan does have a favorable trend in their favor tonight, and that is that they are 15-2 after playing their last game on the road and 8-1 ATS if it was a victory over the last three years. The one thing to look out for is Dan Lefavour, CMU's starting QB. He leads the team in rushing and averages 235 yards passing per game. He has been injured, but is expected to be back this week. I'm anticipating him not being 100%, and possibly not playing up to his potential tonight. Either way I like the Huskies tonight.

Trends Favoring N. Illinois:
Play On - Any team (N ILLINOIS) - off a blowout loss by 21 points or more to a conference rival, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team.
(39-13 over the last 10 seasons.) (75%)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-6).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (21-8).

N ILLINOIS is 12-3 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread.
N ILLINOIS is 10-2 ATS in home games after allowing 37 points or more last game.

All games played at N ILLINOIS since 1992:
N ILLINOIS is 5-0 against the spread versus C MICHIGAN
N ILLINOIS is 5-0 straight up against C MICHIGAN

My Power Rankings:
N. Illinois: 64th
C. Michiigan: 84th

My Efficiency Ratings:
N. Illinois: 38th
C. Michigan: 91st

I am Taking N. Illinois -3 (3 Units)* :toast:

*Note: I posted this play Sunday evening for anyone and everyone to get at this line. If it has moved, decide for yourself if the value is still there.

Look, play who you like and what you like. This is who I am playing, and in no way am forcing anyone to wager this side. I Guarantee no exact outcome, this is just how I perceive this game playing out based on their past performances. If it wins, GREAT! If not, I will look at my mistakes and hope to improve on my Handicapping.

GL, Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Plays:
1. Ball St. -16 (3 Units) (loss)
2. N. Illinois -3 (3 Units) (loss)


Looking for a good weekend.

GL, Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Friday Night Play

Guys, I'm off to the "Chili Cook Off" for the evening, been waiting for line to drop, but it looks like it won't hit -3. So I'm buying the half point, and taking Cincinatti -3 (-120)(1 Unit).

No Write-up, but there are plenty of reasons I like this game. Hope to turn it around tonight and have a good weekend. But ya never know. Lost the last 2 plays by a total of 4 points. Hoping this is an easy winner.

Gl tonight guys, win or lose let's lighten up a bit and focus on the season, not just one week.

Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Friday Update

Cincinatti -3 (-120)(1 Unit) (WINNER) :toast:

Ok, hopefully we are back on track for the weekend.

Well the Chili was good tonight. Nothing like coming home and seeing a victory. Will have tomorrows plays up tonight at some point.

GL,
Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Saturday Card

Well I have narrowed it down. Sorry no write-ups, but by this point it should be apparent, that win or lose, I have put ALOT of time in analyzing and breaking down these games in order to find the most "Value". Started the week 1-2, so beware. I have not had a losing week this season but it is definitly possible. Just remember proper money management and its no big deal win or lose in comparison to the season thus far.

All Lines are available at reputable sportsbooks at the time of posting.
Plays:
1. Minnesota +14 (3 Units)
2. Alabama -22 (2 Units)
3. Florida -21 (-120) (2 Units)
4. Troy +17 (2 Units)

GL,
Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Overall Weekly Performance

Ball St. -16 (3 Units) (loss)
N. Illinois -3 (3 Units) (loss)
Cincinatti -3 (1 Unit) (WINNER)
Minnesota +14 (3 Units) (WINNER)
Alabama -22 (2 Units) (WINNER)
Florida -21 (-120) (2 Units) (WINNER)
Troy +17 (2 Units) (WINNER)

Well had a rough start, but finished well.

Weekly: 5-2-0 +3.4 Units :toast:

YTD Record: (70-22-4)(76%)(+96.9 Units):toast:

 

[wilheim]

Fyi

Notice to all visitors to this thread.
This thread is only for Randizzle14 to post his plays in. Please post any remarks, questions or comments in the discussion thread right beside this thread.


http://64.40.117.4/showthread.php?t=631433


Violaters will be banned from this particular forum.


Thank you, wilheim.

Congrats Randizzle14 on a profitable week. wil..