**Randizzle's** Week 11 NCAAF **(63-19-4)(77%)(+92.1 Units)**

[Randizzle14]

Hello Everyone....Another Great Week last week achieving a Sweep at 5-0-1. The lines will be out within the next hour, and I should have my plays/leans out by Midnight CST. Every week I emphasize that the "law of averages" has to atleast slow me down a little. So again I will say, whatever I produce this week will not compare to last week. To all new comers to my thread understand that NOTHING is GUARANTEED and to never have too much confidence in a play. So practice PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT and enjoy what we have made already this season. I have noticed that week to week, the lines have gotten sharper and more difficult to breakdown. I will attempt to only play 5-7 games again this week. Good Luck to All of you and let's finish the regular season off strong. :toast:

Week by Week Breakdown:

Week 2:
Weekly Record:
Premium: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) .........................5-1-0
Regular Plays: 4-1-0 (+8.8 Units)


Week 3:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ..................5-1-1
Regular Plays: 4-1-1 (+7.8 Units)


Week 4:
Weekly Record:
Premium Plays: 2-0-0 (+10 Units) ................5-0-0
Regular Plays: 3-0-0 (+9 Units)

Week 5:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Plays: 5-3-0 (+5.1 Units) .................13-5-1
Opinions: 8-2-1

Week 6:
Weekly Record:
Premium Play: None
Regular Play: 7-3-0 (+12.3 Units) ................10-3-0
Opinions: 3-0-0

Week 7:
Weekly Records:
Premium Play: 1-0-0 (+5 Units) ...................4-3-0
Regular Plays: 3-3-0 (-1.8 Units)

Week 8
Premium Play: 0-1-0 (-5.5 Units) ..................5-5-0
Regular Plays : 5-4-0 (-2 Units)

Week 9:
Premium Play:0-0-0
Regular Plays: 11-1-0 (+19.6 Units) ..............11-1-0

Week 10:
Premium Play: 0-0-0
Regular Plays: 5-0-1 (+13 Units).....................5-0-1

OVERALL YTD:
--------------
Premium Plays: 5-1-0 (83%) (+19.5 Units)
Regular Plays: 47-16-3 (75%) (+71.4 Units)
Opinions: 11-2-1 (85%)

Season YTD= 63-19-4 (76.8%) (+92.1 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Early Plays/Leans

Plays:
Buffalo (-7) (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
Oregon St. (-7) (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]


Leans:
Minnesota (-7)
Houston (-14)
Rice (-9.5)
Duke (-4.5)
Oklahoma (-25)
Wake Forest (-3.5)
Arkansas St. (-3)
S. Carolina (-10)

Will have write-ups later this week. Also, will end up adding 3-4 plays this week.

GL, Dizz :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Game

Tuesday Game
--------------
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (4 - 4)
Week 11 Tuesday, 11/4/2008 7:30 PM

Buffalo is coming into this game off back to back wins. Miami is coming off a huge loss against a Kent St. team that they were favored over. In my opinion, Miami (OH) has given up this season. They now sit at 2-6 on the season with one of thos wins coming from a D1-aa school. Buffalo is looking to get above .500 here in front of a Home Crowd. Again, my favorite stat too look at comes into play again tonight. Turnovers!! Miami (OH) has 18 Giveaways and just 10 Takeaways this season. That's nearly a 2to1 negative ratio. On the other side, Buffalo has just 9 Giveaways and has managed to achieve 18 Takeaways this season. That's a 2to1 positive ratio. I believe this will result in Buffalo having atleast 2 more possessions than than Miami (OH).

Trends:
MIAMI OHIO is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons.

Line Movement Trends: (For those of you who believe in Line movement)

Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:Opening Line = -8, Closing Line = -9Since 1992, the home favorite has covered the spread 53 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 35 times.Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 13 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 3 times.
Edge against the spread=BUFFALO

Team Trends Pertaining to Current Line:

Buffalo Bulls are 9-3-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 7-15-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 0-5-0 ATS After 1 Overs (7 -> 9.5)

MY POWER RANKINGS:
Buffalo: 85th
Miami (OH): 117th

My Effiency Ratings:
Buffalo: 84th
Miami (OH): 118th

I am Taking Buffalo Bulls -7 (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] :toast:

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Tuesday Update

Tuesday Game
--------------
MIAMI OHIO (2 - 6) at BUFFALO (4 - 4)
Week 11 Tuesday, 11/4/2008 7:30 PM

Buffalo is coming into this game off back to back wins. Miami is coming off a huge loss against a Kent St. team that they were favored over. In my opinion, Miami (OH) has given up this season. They now sit at 2-6 on the season with one of thos wins coming from a D1-aa school. Buffalo is looking to get above .500 here in front of a Home Crowd. Again, my favorite stat too look at comes into play again tonight. Turnovers!! Miami (OH) has 18 Giveaways and just 10 Takeaways this season. That's nearly a 2to1 negative ratio. On the other side, Buffalo has just 9 Giveaways and has managed to achieve 18 Takeaways this season. That's a 2to1 positive ratio. I believe this will result in Buffalo having atleast 2 more possessions than than Miami (OH).

Trends:
MIAMI OHIO is 0-7 ATS after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI OHIO over the last 3 seasons.

Line Movement Trends: (For those of you who believe in Line movement)

Here is a summary of past results against the spread in games where the line movement was similar to:Opening Line = -8, Closing Line = -9Since 1992, the home favorite has covered the spread 53 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 35 times.Over the last 3 seasons, the home favorite has covered the spread 13 times, while the road underdog covered the spread 3 times.
Edge against the spread=BUFFALO

Team Trends Pertaining to Current Line:

Buffalo Bulls are 9-3-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 7-15-0 ATS After 1 Overs (All Lines)
Miami of Ohio Redskins are 0-5-0 ATS After 1 Overs (7 -> 9.5)

MY POWER RANKINGS:
Buffalo: 85th
Miami (OH): 117th

My Effiency Ratings:
Buffalo: 84th
Miami (OH): 118th

I am Taking Buffalo Bulls -7 (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] :toast:

GL, Dizz

(WINNER) +2 Units!! :toast:

Another Great start to the week.....hoping to keep up this 17-1-0 run. I am confident in my capping, but this is just getting out of hand. Hope to stay on the positive side this weekend. Some sharp lines this week.

Remember, MONEY MANAGEMENT.......GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Plays So Far

Plays:
Buffalo (-7) (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] (WINNER)
Oregon St. (-7) (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -10]
Minnesota (-7) (-120) (3 Units)*

*If drops to -7 (-110) I will add a Unit.


Leans:
Houston (-14) Still looking at a few angles.
Rice (-9.5) Down to -9...if value increases I will pull trigger.
Duke (-4.5)
Oklahoma (-25) My favorite team (don't like playing ON or Against them)
Wake Forest (-3.5) Hoping it drops to -3
Arkansas St. (-3)
S. Carolina (-10)

 

[Randizzle14]

Game 2

Game 2
----------
OREGON ST (5 - 3) at UCLA (3 - 5)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/8/2008 6:00 PM
-------------------------------------------------
Here is how I view this game. Oregon St. is coming into this game with the realization that they have an opportunity to win the Pac-10 Championship. That sparks motivation, and motivation in all aspects of life creates results. The players know, as well as the media that this opportunity will not come again for a long time. The Bruins are on the other side. Having only won 3 games this season, and needing 3 more with 4 left to be bowl eligible, I don't see them playing with the same passion. I understand alot of Home Doggie trends favor UCLA here, but I just believe Oregon St. to be the superior team this year. It looks like Canfield may get the start this weeks as Moevao is still questionable. Many of you may disagree, (in fact I know alot of you do) But I believe this kid will do just fine and produce well enough to cover the 7. UCLA has struggled all year with pass protection allowing 24 sacks YTD and have struggled to establish a run game. It looks as if things will only go downhill this weekend. 3 players are OUT for suspension. 2 Offensive Lineman and a Defensive Tackle. The 3 combined play a significant role in the rotation the Bruins use. Additionally, Jeff Baca (Freshman Starting OL) missed last game due to a Hammy injury, and is listed as "Questionable". Most people consider "Skill positions" to be the most important on the team. Example:QB,WR,RB,TE. But as all knowledgeable football followers know, WITHOUT PROTECTION, all of those positions are useless.
Oh yeah, and I nearly forgot "My favorite Stat" to look at when analyzing a game favors Oregon St. here again. "Turnovers!!" The Beavers have 11 Giveaways this season and 14 Takeaways. The Bruins are terrible in thos catergory managing to give the ball away 17 times and forcing just 9 Takeaways. That looks like: Advantage Oregon St.

A few Trends Favoring Oregon St:
-------------------------------------------
OREGON ST is 8-1 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging <=120 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons.

OREGON ST is 12-3 ATS versus poor offensive teams - averaging <=310 yards/game.

OREGON ST is 7-0 ATS off a close win by 7 points or less over a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.

UCLA is 2-11 ATS after gaining 40 or less rushing yards last game

Riley is 9-1 ATS vs. poor teams - outscored by 10+ points per game on the season as the coach of OREGON ST.

My Team Power Rankings:
----------------------------------
Oregon St: 17th
UCLA: 81st


My Team Effiency Ratings:
---------------------------------
Oregon St: 35th
UCLA: 101st

All things considered I believe Oregon St. Should win by 10-17 points. As always, I believe this to be the Correct Side. But the correct side is not always the winning side. If we continue to be disciplined and practice Money Management, it won't matter in the long run. We will WIN $$ at end of EVERY season.

I am Taking Oregon St. -7 (3 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

 

[Randizzle14]

Game 3

Game 3
--------
MICHIGAN (2 - 7) at MINNESOTA (7 - 2)
Week 11 Saturday, 11/8/2008 12:00 PM

A similar situation in this game as Game 2. Minnesota is 7-2 and looking to improve on an already fantastic season thus far. Michigan is playing for.......exactly, they have nothing else to fight for. Fading Michigan this year has been very profitable, if in fact you have, you would be 8-1-0 ATS (80%)...That's a nice number. At the same time if you were riding Minnesota all season you 6-2-0 ATS. Michigan turns the ball over more ALOT. They have 25 Giveaways This season!!! While Minnesota has 26 Takeways!! That formula looks good for the Gophers. Additionally, Michigan QB won't start this week due to a concussion suffered in the 4th quarter of Saturday's game. Why is this important? Because his replacement options are Sophomore Nick Sheridan—a former walk-on who didn’t even have Division-II scholarship offers out of high school.
And freshman Justin Feagin—a slot receiver who played his first college snaps on special teams in the Wolverines’ loss at Purdue last Saturday. This in and of itself tells me Michigan will struggle offensively and produce more Turnovers than they Already average.

Trends:
MICHIGAN is 1-8 ATS in all games this season.
MICHIGAN is 0-7 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
Minnesota Golden Gophers are 18-8-0 ATS As Home (7 -> 9.5)
Michigan Wolverines are 4-12-0 ATS As Away (7 -> 9.5)

My Power Ratings:
Michigan: 90th
Minnesota: 36th

My Effiency Ratings:
Michigan: 83rd
Minnesota: 30th

I am Taking Minnesota -7 (-120) (3 Units) :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Considering one more play, but its late and I just got in and need to go to bed. Heading to the UT Baylor game in the morning. (Exciting) haha. Nothing like going to a game where the spread is 3TD+ and not having money on it. Almost boring, but none the less I will be there.

GL, Dizz

 

[TTinCO]

Reminder for the new guys here-please read the guidelines for this room at http://forum.therx.com/showthread.php?t=631433

Thanks & welcome to TheRx :toast:

 

[Randizzle14]

Week 11 Update

Plays:
Buffalo (-7) (2 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] (WINNER)
Oregon St. (-7) (3 Units) [1 Unit up to -10] (WINNER)
Minnesota (-7) (-120) (3 Units) (loss)


(2-1-0 +1.4 Units):toast:

Well, only ended up playing 3 games this week, a few reasons contributed to that. The lines seemed extremely sharp this week, and wanted to Only play games with legitimate value. Minnesota REALLY suprised me. One of the few games this season I have been Completely off about. No matter, not an average week for me, but still made some cash. 66% is MORE than acceptable in my book.

I will try and provide atleast 5 games next week, but I cannot Guarantee anything. The way I see it, as long as money is being made SURELY there will not be any complaints. Also (alothough not on a cold streak) I spent alot of time with the girl this weekend and didn't even watch much football. I Will be sure and devote more time on Capping this week.

Not certain I will release my plays early as usual this upcoming week. Many reasons for this as well. But who knows, I have not decided yet. Either way, I will post my plays/leans by Wednesday at the latest.

GL Guys.

Updated YTD Record

(65-20-4)(76%)(+93.5 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz