Rainman's Picks

[RainmanTrail]

YTD (4-3) Sides, (3-3) Totals +0.088 Bet Units


Week 7 Early Picks:
NE -9.5 @ +100
ARI -3.5 @+100

Warning: The sharps may bet against me this week on the Pats game. I think they'll probably be on NYJ here. Will post more on Sat night or Sunday morning depending on the lines.
Also, will post Totals tonight or tomorrow as I like to get those in early.

 

[RainmanTrail]

This ARI bet almost seems too good to be true. And in the world of statistics, if something seems too good to be true, it often/usually is. I have ARI as about an -8 point favorite. Normally, I'd bet 2 bet units on something like this, but since it's an early play and seems too good to be true, I'm only placing one unit on this game. However, I think this is a pretty good play. I think this line moves against us by gameday, so I'm playing it early. And yes, I'm fully aware of the injuries ARI is dealing with. But I don't think it matters. They are a much better team than this line suggests.

 

[RainmanTrail]

My bets are always one unit unless otherwise posted. I will usually post picks in bold if they are for more than one unit.

 

[RainmanTrail]

NYJ have yet to cover a spread this season. I don't see this being their first time either. Vegas seems like their too afraid of giving out big spreads for some reason. It's somewhat unprecedented with the number of terrible teams this year. NYJ, WAS, OAK, JAX, TEN, TB. There's a lot of shitty teams and it seems to be skewing the odds. If the line were at -12, I wouldn't touch it. But at -9.5 even money? I can't resist. I'd take NYJ if I got +13.5, but no way would I take them at +9.5 in NE. Do you really think NE is only a 6.5 point favorite against the Jets on a neutral field? I sure as hell don't. NE is still one of the top 5 teams and NYJ are one of the bottom 5. Giving them less than a TD difference in strength is a mistake. People like to play double digit dogs, and that's probably what pushed this line below 10, but this isn't the time to make that play. NE will cover this line >60% of the time IMO.

Good luck guys

 

[RainmanTrail]

The Jets against the spread this year:
Week 1: lost by 1.5
Week 2: push
Week 3: lost by 10.5
Week 4: lost by 9
Week 5: lost by 24
Week 6: lost by 4

 

[cvachon84]

I know the sharps will like the raiders. I also like the Giants at +7. I like the Under total in the Saints/Lions game. Again BOL to you!! Let me know on you o/u picks this week.

 

[RainmanTrail]

My Over/Under bets for Week 7 are as follows:

NYJ/NE Under 44.5 @ -110
SF/DEN Under 50 @ -115
KC/SD Over 45 @ -105
CIN/IND Over 49.5 @ -110
MIA/CHI Under 48 @ -105

All bets are 1 unit

 

[cvachon84]

I love the KC/SD over play. Thanks I will play this!!

 

[RainmanTrail]

Adding these picks in for Week 7. Bold picks are for 2 bet units:

NO +2 @ -105
KC +3.5 @ -110
HOU +3.5 @ -121
CHI -3 @ -102
CAR +7 @ -120

 

[cvachon84]

Adding NO/DET Under 47.5

 

[RainmanTrail]

(7-7) YTD Sides + 0.046 Bet Units

Week 8 Picks:
NO -1.5 @-105
IND -3.5 @ +102
PHI +3 @ -135
CHI +6 @ -110
KC -6.5 @ -121
HOU -3 @ -114

 

[cvachon84]

(7-7) YTD Sides + 0.046 Bet Units

Week 8 Picks:
NO -1.5 @-105
IND -3.5 @ +102
PHI +3 @ -135
CHI +6 @ -110
KC -6.5 @ -121
HOU -3 @ -114

Love chicago!! I like the Saints but Drew Brees has 7 interceptions vs. Aaron Rodgers 1 and that was against Seattle back in week 1. Brees seems off to me. BOL to you. I like the over in the Pats Bears Game do you??

 

[TonyQuotes]

like the card this week except for HOU....they scare the heck outta me...BOL