Rainman's Picks for Week 6

[RainmanTrail]

When I first signed up here last week, I said I wouldn't post my picks. However, I've changed my mind after receiving a few PM's. My NFL plays for week 6 are below. I will post the line and the price I paid. I bought back one bet from early in the week (the Pats), so I'll be posting that as well. I'm an honest guy. Don't want to cover anything up here. That doesn't help anyone. I'm up 5 bet units so far this season but will not post those in my record here since I just joined.

My background: I'm a data scientist for a tech company in Silicon Valley and a former professional poker player (you can find many of my instructional poker videos on a few sites if you are interested. I won't list them, not here to advertise. Just giving some background info since I'm new here). Now, I've decided to pursue my PhD in Statistics/Data Science and play poker for travel money. Today, I build predictive models for a living while attending grad school. Sports betting is a hobby. I make money at it, but I'm no god. Most of my picks are based on statistical machine learning models that I've built. I watch games, but not a ton as I have homework like every grad student. There are many others here with much more insight and knowledge into team strategies and matchups than I have. They are worth listening to. I am but one voice.

That said: Here are my picks. Good luck everyone! Bold picks are 2 bet units. The rest are 1 bet unit.

MIA +3.5 @ -130
BUF +3 @ -120
CAR +7 @ -120
SEA -8 @ +100
BAL -3.5 @ +102
PIT +1.5 @ -102
ARI -3.5 @ -102

NE -2.5 @ -106 --> BUF +3 @ -120 ...I bought this pick off with a 3rd bet unit on BUF. So I now have 3 units on BUF and 1 unit on NE for a total of 2 Units on BUF.

I will post my O/U bets later tonight. Usually I prefer to play those much earlier in the week, but I didn't have time this week.

 

[uscmd]

Like: mia, buf, car

don't like: bal

neutral: sea, arz, pit


Welcome, and BOL.

 

[indiana]

RM/T..............welcome to the RX..........many good cappers here, sure you will enjoy...........good luck with your plays...........indy

 

[cvachon84]

I love the Seattle,Buffalo,and Especially Pittsburgh, I am liking Atlanta too

 

[RainmanTrail]

OK, finally finished my Over/Unders for Week 6. As I said, I got these done much later than I hoped, so I had to buy down two of these lines a half point, but I still like them at the prices I got. My picks are as follows:

DEN/NYJ Over 47.5 @ -115
JAX/TEN Under 43 @ -110
BAL/TB Under 44 @ -110
NYG/PHI Over 49.5 @ -114

Warning: The sharps are against me on BAL/TB, but my model still really likes this line so I went with it. Might be wrong here though. All plays are for 1 bet unit.

 

[RainmanTrail]

RM/T..............welcome to the RX..........many good cappers here, sure you will enjoy...........good luck with your plays...........indy

Thx Indy. Any recommendations for who to follow in NCAAF?

 

[What_if]

Oh no! I am on all the opposites of your picks. Gl anyway though.

 

[cvachon84]

Thank you Rainman!! I will bet the over in the Philly game. Why do you like the over just curious!!

 

[cvachon84]

Both Philly and New York can stop each other's run game!!

 

[RainmanTrail]

I have the Giants DEF as being pretty neutral in both passing and rushing. The PHI def is pretty bad though after adjusting for strength of schedule. These two offenses are both capable of scoring though. This game should be a shootout.

 

[RainmanTrail]

MIA +3.5 @ -130
BUF +3 @ -120
CAR +7 @ -120
SEA -8 @ +100
BAL -3.5 @ +102
PIT +1.5 @ -102
ARI -3.5 @ -102

Week 1 Sides:
(3-3) -0.672 Units

 

[RainmanTrail]

Week 1 Sides:
(3-3) -0.672 Units

I meant to write Week 6 Sides

 

[RainmanTrail]

DEN/NYJ Over 47.5 @ -115
JAX/TEN Under 43 @ -110
BAL/TB Under 44 @ -110
NYG/PHI Over 49.5 @ -114

Week 6 Totals:
(2-2) -0.24 Bet Units

 

[RainmanTrail]

Sorry, should have read as follows...

MIA +3.5 @ -130
BUF +3 @ -120
CAR +7 @ -120
SEA -8 @ +100
BAL -3.5 @ +102
PIT +1.5 @ -102
ARI -3.5 @ -102

Week 6 Sides:
(4-3) +0.328 Bet Units

 

[cvachon84]

I feel like your disappointed with your results this week!! The Sharps got killed this week too except for the Raiders and Cowboys. Let's kick some ass next week!!

 

[cvachon84]

I did have a hunch that the philly/giants game would go under. BOL to next week Rainmaker!!

 

[RainmanTrail]

I feel like your disappointed with your results this week!! The Sharps got killed this week too except for the Raiders and Cowboys. Let's kick some ass next week!!

Ya, was slightly upset with myself. Mostly for going back on my New England pick. That was my favorite pick of the week early on. Was the only bet I placed when the lines first came out. Then I bought off it because a lot of people I highly respect said BUF was their favorite pick of the week. They know better than I do usually, so I trusted them and bought in on BUF for 2 bet units on top of the buy out. Would have had a nice week had I gone with my instincts instead. Oh well. You win some you lose some. It's a long haul game Still booked a small profit though, so can't complain too much.