QUIZ--Is this a profitable middle in CBB?

[Fishhead]

-3.5 -105
+4.5 -105

Looking forward to the responses on this one.

Thanks

PS- remember, speaking about NCAA baskets here, not the NBA.

 

[jeffksu]

no way....one number only.....not profitiable to say the least...even at -105....stay away far, far away...jeffksu

 

[Journeyman]

 

[mj23]

I played a 36 37 on the Eagles game so anything is possible!!

 

[Halifax]

no way....one number only.....not profitiable to say the least...even at -105....stay away far, far away...jeffksu

A 1 point middle at -105 is basically the same as having a 2 point middle at -110 .... marginally profitable in theory ... highly frustrating in reality because those little 1 point bastards never hit.

 

[Journeyman]

I would not waste my time with it...but, I'm not a grinder...

 

[Rainbow]

anything is possible, but the bottom line if you lay 3.5 -05 and take +4.5 -05. you better off donating all your money to charity, because you have no chance. I could book them kind of bets with a cigar box with no money in it.

 

[wantitall4moi]

In the NBA it might be alittle better because 4 is a fairly common differential when the line is posted 4 or 5.


Not sure in college hoops. Only way to know is to know the results. I have them somewhere, but not all put into where I can do a search.
But at 5 cents a side you only need a 3% occurance to make money. So would be marginal I suppose.

 

[PanchoSanza]

A 1 point middle at -105 is basically the same as having a 2 point middle at -110 .... marginally profitable in theory ... highly frustrating in reality because those little 1 point bastards never hit.

LOL, think again snoboy.

 

[Halifax]

LOL, think again snoboy.

Well, when I say "never", I don't really mean "never" ... it just seems that way sometimes.

 

[PanchoSanza]

Well, when I say "never", I don't really mean "never" ... it just seems that way sometimes.

I meant your point about them being the same.

They are NOT the same, not close.:nono5:

 

[Rainbow]

In the NBA it might be alittle better because 4 is a fairly common differential when the line is posted 4 or 5.


Not sure in college hoops. Only way to know is to know the results. I have them somewhere, but not all put into where I can do a search.
But at 5 cents a side you only need a 3% occurance to make money. So would be marginal I suppose.

Now you are really getting into a frying pan, its alot worst in the NBA. to me in the NBA 4 is nothing. 2 is a little stronger than 7 and than 3. not many games fall 4 in the NBA.

 

[GreenDoberman]

Would need the statistical data on the frequency of how often a margin of 4 comes up in a CBB game. Subtract the times the dog wins by 4 from the fave winning by 4. Then if that % is greater than the % needed to hit it is profitable.

The % of time it is needed to hit is 1 in 40 or 2.5%. That is because every time it doesn't land on 4 you lose $5. Every time it does land on 4 you win $200. If your probability of this happening is greater than 1 in 40 or 2.5%, then it is a profitable bet to make.

 

[Fishhead]

Now you are really getting into a frying pan, its alot worst in the NBA. to me in the NBA 4 is nothing. 2 is a little stronger than 7 and than 3. not many games fall 4 in the NBA.

RAINBOW-- THIS IS A WIN IN THE NBA, CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT.

Alot worse in the NBA??????????????

If so, you best be answering YES to the question in this thread!

 

[wantitall4moi]

Rainbow, when I get the stats I will post them. I have some but nowhere near up to date. I think I have up until 2002 season.

 

[Rainbow]

RAINBOW-- THIS IS A WIN IN THE NBA, CAN ASSURE YOU OF THAT.

Alot worse in the NBA??????????????

If so, you best be answering YES to the question in this thread!

thats what makes the world go around and around. in the NBA 2 is the strongest followed by 7 and than 3 and 5. I would book that bet 7-days a week in college and in the NBA.

 

[wantitall4moi]

Rainbow, I think you are looking at apples and oranges. 2 might have the highest occurance ( I am not sure even that is right).


What we are talking about is the PUSH rate at that spread.

Not many games are lined -4, but when they are lined -3 or -5 then a four point differential is not uncommon.

That is the basis for this question, not how many games come out at that differential to bgin with.

Like I said, I have the numbers somewhere, but not up to date, and defiantely not something I can pull up like I can the NFL numbers.

I quit betting the NBA a couple years ago so I don't keep current. I have the number available, just not clean.

 

[wantitall4moi]

I wil say this. The NBA is a pain in the ass to figure stats out for.


If you look at results and closing numbers. The expectation for a push in the nba is only about 2% (1.87) accrding to my numbers.

THOSE numbers ARE current... since 1995 there have been 10652 games played, 200 of which have pushed.

The problem is that the lines fluctaute a lot, so the closing lines can sometime be off 2 or even 3 points. So hard to gauge when you want to predict middling expectations.

That is why you need to look at ranges. SO a games closes -2. It could have started at a PK or -4. That is why it is hard to use stats to figure it out. Not to mention that there are about 40 times as many games in the NBA as there are in the NFL. So alot more data to prcoess.

So anyone that can figure it out and know all the openers and clsoers has done a lot of work.Even I cannot look at allthat stuff with what I use. So in the hoops stuf my numbers are an educated guess, and not a concrete results.

But I do know that 4 is an anomoly, as it 6 or 8. Those "oddball" numbers that you do not think are significant, but actually offer spot bets...

 

[Fishhead]

RAINBOW--So your saying that a -4 favorite in the NBA wins by exactly 4 points LESS than 2.5% of the time.

Furhermore, you are going to book my action and allow me to lay -3.5 -105 and take +4.5 -105 all day long in the NBA, is that correct?


Wow, that is a very strong and confident statement!

 

[Halifax]

I meant your point about them being the same.

They are NOT the same, not close.:nono5:

I think you're splitting mathematical hairs here.

Having -3.5 -110 and +5.5 -110 is probably a bit better than -3.5 -105 and +4.5 -105, since you're getting two numbers instead of one but you're not quite paying double the amount of vig (you're paying about 1.9 times as much vig as you would on the -3.5 -105 and +4.5 -105).

But I don't think that's enough to make one play a lot better than the other long-term. They're either somewhat profitable (both of them), or they're both not profitable.

Correct me if I'm wrong.