Questions about run line

[slidewilly]

Relative baseball newbie here. I'm a bit mystified by the run line and would like some perspective from the veterans here. What I don't quite "get" is why the odds change so dramatically from the ML to the run line. The only thing I can think of is that in a very substantial percentage of games the winning team wins by a single run. Is that the explanation? And do you vets consider the run line a sucker bet?

To me, unburdened by any actual statistics to disabuse me of the notion, it seems awfully appealing to forsake the ML for the run line in many games.

Your thoughts/advice please?

Thanks and GL.

 

[KennyB]

Consistently trying to beat the runline is probably a suckers play but I pick my spots to do it. Yes indeed, many games are decided by 1 run so if you lay the 1' you will often get burned. Remember, if the home team is either up by a run or can pick up a run in the last couple of innings that may be all you get. And if the home team is up by 1 run they don't come back up in the 9th.

 

[RPM]

good post and explanation by kenny b.

would probably be a losing proposition to try to beat the run line consistently, but if you pick your spots, you can do well.

also, take a look at the reverse runlines. you can do well with them on occasion.

 

[wannabewhale]

They wouldn't be out there if they were easy.

 

[Texas-Winners]

dont play them. I had to learn the hard way.

tw

 

[RPM]

i like them when they turn a small fav into a decent sized dog.

 

[SportSavant]

playing them is not a problem at all, ridiculous to think otherwise.

it is the 20 cent vig that will kill you however, MANSION & PINNY however have a dimeline,

furthermore, if you use Pinny as a Guide & shop around, you will find that smaller shops can offer tremendous value on the run line dogs by not moving em as quick.

 

[RPM]

sportsavant,

have you tried wagerweb? they have a dimeline up to like -190 and ive been hearing good things about them.

just looking for feedback.

 

[RPM]

today would have been a good day for run line plays. only 2 of 14 games finished with a 1 run difference. (angels still pending)

 

[Omni]

To me, unburdened by any actual statistics to disabuse me of the notion, it seems awfully appealing to forsake the ML for the run line in many games.QUOTE]

That of course is the whole trap. That RL looks so good, and it's so easy to take a favorite team at a higher price than you want to pay and kick them down to a lower juice laying level. It's not really a bargin, trust me. Long term it's a killer.

Very few teams at the end of the year manage to put up a good record against the -1 1/2 RL in games where they were favored. (as for the underdog's records against -1 1/2 Alt RL's I have no idea.)