How do you determine moneyline value in football and/or basketball? I think the huge emphasis on pointspread on these high-volatility scoring games may be misguided and the underdog advantage may be a myth. In these games, whether you bet on the fav or the dog, you're still faced with the same -110 liability and must hit around 53% or better either way to show a profit. I personally find it a challenge to hit over 53% in ANY sport over thousands of picks - I know some people do it but it's difficult. In games like tennis and soccer, I emphasize on dog plays to win straight up and tend to show a profit over time even when I hit less than 50%. I'm thinking of trying the same thing in basketball and football from now on - determining when an underdog has a good chance to win, betting them outright at nice +moneylines and shooting for 50% over time. What I would like to find out, though, is how often does a football/basketball underdog who covers the spread also win outright, categorized according to the size of the spread (I'm sure the percentage changes with a 14 pt. spread as opposed to a 3 pt. one). Do you know of anywhere from which I could gather this information? I want to find out whether, historically at least, betting underdog moneylines would have been more profitable than betting the spread. Thanks.