Question for you numbers nerds....

[olemiss33]

kidding about the nerd part, but wondered if any of you could figure out a way to get some info. Is there a way to find out how many games stayed within 6 points of the closing line? Im arguing to a buddy of mine that teasers should be a rare play. My argument is that probably less than 25% of teams that cover a teaser, don't cover the actual number. Im not a person that is completely against teasers, but I think they have their spots. I had a big teaser on AL and TN yesterday, and Bama falls into the 25% or less number Im trying to talk to him about.

If this isn't easy to come by, no problem. Just curious if one of you may have that info.

 

[GoSooners]

kidding about the nerd part, but wondered if any of you could figure out a way to get some info. Is there a way to find out how many games stayed within 6 points of the closing line? Im arguing to a buddy of mine that teasers should be a rare play. My argument is that probably less than 25% of teams that cover a teaser, don't cover the actual number. Im not a person that is completely against teasers, but I think they have their spots. I had a big teaser on AL and TN yesterday, and Bama falls into the 25% or less number Im trying to talk to him about.

If this isn't easy to come by, no problem. Just curious if one of you may have that info.

I'm not a numbers guy by any means. But it stands to reason that teasers in college football would probably be better to play in November than they would Sept or even most of October. The reason is because the linesmakers have 2 months worth of data to work with for each team in setting the lines, and are more likely to set their lines closer to the final outcome of the game. This is where a 6 or 7 point teaser might have a better chance of hitting than earlier in the year. Otherwise, I don't usually bother with them unless I'm playing for example two bad offensive teams with good defenses playing each other. Those results would be most likely to play out like an NFL type of score than your typical college score..I'm sure with this data your going to get mixed results. But I think it is important to break it down to how close these lines are by month, and not the season as a whole to get a better idea on it.

 

[Greenbacks]

With the rise in popularity of teaser bets, I thought it would be a good idea to see what the best odds are college football teasers. The table below shows the data for college football home underdogs from 1989 to 2013.
You’ll find the how many games had each line, how many times those games would have won with a 6, 7 or 10 point teaser (and how many would have resulted in pushes), as well as the win rates for each teaser.
I then compared those win rates with the required win percentage to turn a profit with the typical odds for teasers – two team 6 and 7 point teasers and three team 10 point teasers.
The goal is to find the best numbers (historically speaking) for college football teasers. This should give us a lot of insight into what situations will continue to be profitable teaser situations in the future.




[h=6]Home Underdogs[/h] Updated 7-9-2014

Line	6 Point Win %	7 Point Win %	10 Point Win %
+0.5	68.97%	75.86%	82.76%
+1	70.29%	72.38%	77.85%
+1.5	70.06%	71.19%	77.40%
+2	72.12%	72.38%	76.19%
+2.5	70.29%	72.10%	79.71%
+3	67.60%	69.77%	73.55%
+3.5	67.86%	71.43%	75.00%
+4	66.05%	68.84%	71.49%
+4.5	59.09%	60.80%	70.45%
+5	64.94%	66.48%	69.10%
+5.5	71.98%	73.08%	79.12%
+6	68.86%	70.09%	75.00%
+6.5	64.13%	65.58%	72.46%
+7	66.67%	69.02%	73.81%
+7.5	63.37%	67.82%	74.26%
+8	64.80%	65.76%	70.11%
+8.5	72.18%	72.93%	79.70%
+9	63.49%	64.52%	71.43%
+9.5	62.71%	64.41%	69.49%
+10	66.30%	69.44%	75.94%
+10.5	64.75%	67.21%	73.77%
+11	58.91%	61.07%	66.17%
+11.5	61.33%	62.67%	69.33%
+12	62.77%	64.13%	71.28%
+12.5	60.23%	62.50%	69.32%
+13	75.57%	76.34%	80.30%
+13.5	58.54%	63.41%	69.92%
+14	58.55%	61.33%	64.52%
+14.5	75.29%	76.47%	82.35%
+15	62.20%	63.53%	67.06%
% Needed	70.71%	73.85%	81.70%

What the numbers show is that teasing home underdogs in college football is very rarely a profitable venture. For example, 7 point teasers at +2.5, +5.5, +13 and +14.5 (teased to +9.5, +12.5, +20, and +21.5) have consistently shown a profit. This follows some solid logic as each of those teases crosses key numbers in college football. What you can use this data for is to find the right situations to tease home underdogs.
By no means should any tease be a blind wager, however, as you can see, there are certain situations where you can increase your advantage.

 

[Greenbacks]

It’s becoming more and more common to bet teasers in college football, so I wanted to do some due diligence to see what the best odds are to tease.
I looked at every college football game from 1989 to 2013 and broke it down into different situations.
The table below shows only road underdogs, how many games landed on each spread, how many times a 6, 7, or 10 point tease would have resulted in a win or push, and the overall win rate for those teases. I then compared the win rate to the required win rate needed to show a profit based on typical teaser odds.
I’ve highlighted the only consistent winning rate below for your convenience. The 6 and 7 point teasers uses odds for two-team wagers, while the 10 point teaser is for three teams.



[h=6]Road Underdogs[/h] Updated on 7-9-2014

Line	6 Point Win %	7 Point Win %	10 Point Win %
+0.5	75.86%	75.86%	75.86%
+1	69.17%	71.17%	78.83%
+1.5	73.20%	74.23%	76.29%
+2	71.43%	73.14%	78.19%
+2.5	71.90%	72.51%	77.95%
+3	70.79%	73.17%	78.10%
+3.5	62.44%	66.32%	71.50%
+4	71.08%	73.20%	79.17%
+4.5	67.83%	70.43%	76.09%
+5	69.23%	69.96%	73.54%
+5.5	65.07%	65.94%	72.05%
+6	63.79%	65.77%	71.85%
+6.5	66.57%	68.78%	74.86%
+7	62.39%	65.29%	70.41%
+7.5	63.67%	66.44%	72.32%
+8	63.78%	65.77%	71.21%
+8.5	65.66%	66.16%	73.23%
+9	64.81%	65.95%	70.39%
+9.5	59.24%	60.33%	66.30%
+10	61.97%	64.86%	71.33%
+10.5	65.88%	67.77%	73.46%
+11	67.79%	70.05%	76.21%
+11.5	68.09%	69.50%	76.60%
+12	73.87%	74.75%	80.10%
+12.5	59.14%	60.22%	68.28%
+13	67.28%	68.66%	75.76%
+13.5	61.00%	63.49%	69.71%
+14	58.13%	61.71%	69.62%
+14.5	62.16%	65.32%	72.07%
+15	64.92%	66.33%	78.31%
% Needed	70.71%	73.85%	81.70%

As you can see from the data, there are only a few situations that have been consistent profitable for teasing road underdogs. For example, teasing road underdogs of 1.5 points by 7 points has been profitable historically. This makes sense because an underdog of only 1.5 points is most likely the better team, they just happen to be on the road. Teasing them up to 8.5 points gets you past several key numbers (3,4 and 7) and makes it impossible to result in a push.
Maybe the most surprising information comes on 14-point road underdogs. Teasing them from 14 to 20 or even 21 has resulted in the worst odds in this particular situation. Apparently if a team is bad enough to be two touchdown underdogs, they are bad enough to lose by three touchdowns or more at a pretty consistent rate.
Be sure to check this table to see if you are getting good odds before you tease a road underdog in college football.

 

[Greenbacks]

Teasers are pretty popular bets for college football, but I’m more interested in getting the best possible odds. So, I went back through all road favorites in all college football games from 1989 to 2013 and looked at how many games had each line, how many times 6, 7, and 10 point teasers would have resulted in a win at that line (as well as pushes), and the win rate for each number.
Then I compared the required win rate for profitability based on typical odds for each teaser. The odds used are for two teams for 6 and 7 pointers, three teams for 10 pointers.
We can use this information to show us the best situations to be college football teasers when the team we want to wager on is a road favorite.



[h=6]Road Favorites[/h] Updated on 7-9-2014

Line	6 Point Win %	7 Point Win %	10 Point Win %
-0.5	68.97%	75.86%	79.31%
-1	65.60%	68.09%	75.09%
-1.5	69.49%	70.62%	79.10%
-2	68.47%	70.19%	75.73%
-2.5	70.65%	74.64%	81.88%
-3	64.10%	67.70%	75.00%
-3.5	65.48%	69.94%	77.08%
-4	68.20%	70.70%	77.88%
-4.5	73.30%	74.43%	85.80%
-5	64.33%	66.86%	76.97%
-5.5	62.64%	63.19%	77.47%
-6	66.82%	68.14%	79.20%
-6.5	73.19%	74.28%	80.80%
-7	69.38%	71.47%	78.64%
-7.5	68.32%	70.79%	78.22%
-8	70.33%	72.22%	76.24%
-8.5	66.92%	67.67%	70.68%
-9	66.10%	69.92%	72.80%
-9.5	68.64%	72.88%	77.12%
-10	64.25%	69.49%	76.22%
-10.5	59.84%	64.75%	71.31%
-11	65.89%	69.53%	77.86%
-11.5	65.33%	73.33%	80.00%
-12	62.37%	65.56%	80.22%
-12.5	73.86%	77.27%	81.82%
-13	52.42%	57.03%	72.27%
-13.5	58.54%	65.04%	69.92%
-14	65.79%	69.59%	75.16%
-14.5	58.82%	60.00%	70.59%
-15	63.53%	63.53%	75.90%
% Needed	70.71%	73.85%	81.70%

Looking at the numbers in this table tells us several things. First, that the majority of teases on road favorites in college football have not been historically profitable. It also tells us that certain numbers have historically been much better than others to tease. For example, looking at road favorites of exactly 12.5 points, you’ll see that 6, 7 and 10 point teasers have been profitable.
It makes sense. If a team is favored by that much on the road to begin with, it’s pretty obvious they are the superior team. With a tease you are getting a team favored by almost two touchdowns for less than a touchdown. Remember to check this table before you take any road favorites in 6, 7, or 10 point college football teasers.

 

[Greenbacks]

Teasers are popular bets in college football, but I am more interested in whether or not they are profitable bets. So, I took a look at every college football game from 1989 to 2013. I started with home favorites.
The table below shows home teams, how many points they were favored by, how many times since 1989 a home team has been favored by that amount, and then how many times would have covered if given the extra points.
The win rate is then compared to the win rate needed to show a profit at the typical juice at online sportsbooks. Six and seven point teasers are two teams, while a 10 point teaser includes three teams.
We can use this information to recognize what the best situations are for teasing teams that are home favorites in college football.


[h=6]Home Favorites[/h] Updated on 7-9-2014

Line	6 Point Win %	7 Point Win %	10 Point Win %
-0.5	62.07%	65.52%	68.97%
-1	68.01%	69.85%	74.73%
-1.5	65.46%	68.56%	75.77%
-2	68.75%	70.78%	77.55%
-2.5	62.24%	64.05%	71.90%
-3	65.42%	68.10%	75.81%
-3.5	68.65%	73.06%	77.98%
-4	61.51%	65.95%	72.47%
-4.5	63.32%	67.69%	78.60%
-5	63.64%	64.57%	77.06%
-5.5	70.31%	72.05%	79.04%
-6	68.75%	70.47%	80.60%
-6.5	63.81%	65.19%	74.31%
-7	68.87%	70.73%	78.63%
-7.5	71.28%	74.05%	77.16%
-8	69.77%	73.12%	76.72%
-8.5	66.16%	67.68%	74.24%
-9	67.57%	71.49%	77.35%
-9.5	66.85%	71.74%	78.80%
-10	66.23%	69.36%	77.12%
-10.5	61.14%	64.45%	74.88%
-11	62.20%	64.88%	75.36%
-11.5	59.57%	61.70%	75.18%
-12	54.31%	58.25%	72.86%
-12.5	66.13%	68.28%	75.81%
-13	61.13%	63.20%	73.26%
-13.5	66.39%	70.95%	77.59%
-14	66.56%	71.43%	77.33%
-14.5	64.86%	65.32%	75.23%
-15	60.42%	62.05%	69.59%
% Needed	70.71%	73.85%	81.70%

As you can see from the table above, almost no situations are good ones for teasing home favorites. An example of a consistently profitable tease would be taking a -7.5 point favorite and teasing them down 7 points to a -0.5 favorite. This actually makes sense since you are taking a home team that’s favored by more than a touchdown and making it so they only have to win the game, but you should also take note that even these numbers just barely break the 73.85% threshold needed to profit for 7 point teasers.
So, what’s the takeaway from all of this? Basically, you should mostly avoid trying to tease college home favorites and, if you do, they should probably fall into one of the profitable situations above and only when you can get the typical odds I’ve listed or better.

 

[russ1945]

Never do teasers. I am an old racing handicapper used to exactas, trifectas,etc. My goal is to bet a little to win a lot. Last week I was informed that I can no long bet anything more than a 3 teamer. Have you ever heard of that one before. I am basically limited to 2 team round robins with a 3 team kicker. Teasers have never appealed to me. Power to you if you do them and win but I prefer to risk less to win more. It has me in a temporary bind at the moment. I never in my wildest dreams thought I would get cut off on bigger parlays. Depressing.

 

[rolltide]

kidding about the nerd part, but wondered if any of you could figure out a way to get some info. Is there a way to find out how many games stayed within 6 points of the closing line? Im arguing to a buddy of mine that teasers should be a rare play. My argument is that probably less than 25% of teams that cover a teaser, don't cover the actual number. Im not a person that is completely against teasers, but I think they have their spots. I had a big teaser on AL and TN yesterday, and Bama falls into the 25% or less number Im trying to talk to him about.

If this isn't easy to come by, no problem. Just curious if one of you may have that info.

pretty simple. here is ncaaf 2014

(ats margin < -6 or ats margin > 6) and season = 2014 and (site = neutral or site = home)

SU:	271-192-0 (6.80, 58.5%)

6 >= ats margin >= -6 and season = 2014 and (site = neutral or site = home)

SU:	170-81-0 (7.98, 67.7%)

 

[rolltide]

so 251 games have stayed within 6 points of the line while 463 were outside of 6 points

aka 35% of games this year where 6-point teaser would come into play

 

[olemiss33]

so 251 games have stayed within 6 points of the line while 463 were outside of 6 points

aka 35% of games this year where 6-point teaser would come into play

Great info. Really appreciate it. Actually more games than I expected to fall within the 6. Still not enough to make teasers a reg part of my bets.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Russ is kind of close, but I was fortunate enough to learn all kinds of gaming from the best in the business. The one constant is this. Win as much as you can while risking as little as you can. As I am sure all of you know, the odds in Vegas are carefully calibrated and follow a very strict pattern. They stick to the bottom line which tells them that over a series of wagers (1000 or more) at the same price, the casino is going to show an overall profit. The object of the game is to hit and run. Take them for a little and bail out. The longer you play (Consecutively speaking) the bigger your chance of losing is. Also wager on a small amount of games. You will never win a lot wagering on every game on the board, but you sure can lose a lot. So far this season, I am hitting at about 55 1/2%. I am sure that others are doing better. In the past 30 years, I have hit on a 58.42% basis. I do not know how many people can say that. If they can, then they know how much money can be won by taking it slow and easy. If you know what you are doing, it is not much more of a gamble than some of those 401K's out there. Look what happened to them thanks to Mr. Obama and Company.

 

[phantom888]

HOME DOG	home underdogs in college football is very rarely a profitable venture
HOME FAV	almost no situations are good ones for teasing home favorites
ROAD FAV	teases on road favorites in college football have not been profitable
ROAD FAV	road favorites of exactly 12.5 points, you’ll see that 6, 7 and 10 point teasers have been profitable
ROAD DOG	teasing road underdogs of 1.5 points by 7 points has been profitable historically
ROLLTIDE	35% of games this year where 6-point teaser would come into play