Question for Vegas Vic

[ewitty]

What is the advantage of always (usually?) taking the opening overnight lines in the betjam contest?

Is it that you think you're a better capper than the bookmaker and can anticipate line movement? I feel like if I tried that I'd guess wrong just as often as I'd guess right, and it would even out.

At least it gives me an opportunity to review your plays before making mine

 

[VegasVic]

There is no question in my mind that I can predict a line move better than I can pick a winner. I figure in the long run I have a better chance to win this thing if I pick early, go with my gut, and pray no crazy shit happens in the mean time like Sean Avery's drama.

 

[ewitty]

Very interesting. I just noticed you got SJS/TOR o5.5 at -130 where I got it for -120. I feel like if I tried your strategy, that would happen a lot.

Assuming I could predict line movement correctly 100% of the time, why wouldn't I just take the opposite side right before game time? Wouldn't it be the same thing?

Whatever you're doing it's obviously working. I'm just trying to learn from it, so don't think I'm criticizing in any way.

 

[VegasVic]

Generally I'm taking the dogs and I find most of the smart money that comes in on overnights does as well. The trade off is I have to make all my bets at the same time so I know I'm not going to get the best of the number in all games. I knew that -130 was too much but I liked the total over so I lumped it in with the other plays.


From what I've noticed this year on sides....dogs, (especially quality teams), are being bet down early. Most of this money is wise money IMO. On the next day and especially just before game time there is much money coming in on the favorite, (this is particularly obvious in a venue such as Matchbook). I do believe the bulk of this money is coming from squares and action junkies were they just go with the obvious side. The rest is from sharps buying back perhaps.

In truth I could be scalping most of my plays but I'm not a big player and have no interest in working for a few assured dollars here and there.I must rather lose big money on a consistent basis.

 

[VegasVic]

Assuming I could predict line movement correctly 100% of the time, why wouldn't I just take the opposite side right before game time? Wouldn't it be the same thing?

Because I don't necessarily like that side. I mean I do have some sort of an opinion on these games. However sometimes it is just simply getting what I think is value in the number.

 

[ewitty]

Ah, cool. Thanks a lot for your insight. I liked the over a lot too (had nothing to do with you taking them at -130).

I'm trying to bet late and only take games that moved in my favor, basically the opposite strategy as you, but it's not working so well yet.

 

[dirtymoose]

I must rather lose big money on a consistent basis.

i had to read that 3 times
that gave me a good laugh.

 

[VegasVic]

Just looked up what I took this afternoon.

1 Pittsburgh Penguins +110
3 Atlanta Thrashers +165
7 Anaheim Ducks +125

Pens are still at +110 but the Thrashers moved to +150 and Ducks to +115. In the long run all those nickel and dimes add up.

 

[VegasVic]

i had to read that 3 times
that gave me a good laugh.

Kind of like British jokes. You have to really pay attention to get all that witty dry humor.

 

[ewitty]

In the long run all those nickel and dimes add up.

Oh for sure, nickels and dimes are how this contest (or any similar one) will be won. I just don't think I could compete with you on the level of anticipating line movement, so I have to try and get the best of it another way.

It would be interesting to go back and see what % of the the time people make picks and the line improves vs stays the same or gets worse.

 

[VegasVic]

Another case. The Leafs opened high. I can't remember the number but it was way too high. I knew it would get some action and the number would lower. Still I couldn't make a case for Toronto so why would I take it on the contest?

However it did move down and if I wanted to make some money I'm sure I could have scalped it for a few pennies.

Hold on I'm looking up the line movement.

 

[VegasVic]

Here's Pinny numbers. Toronto opens +265...gets bet down to +250 a couple times during the day and closes right back at +265.

MONEYLINES
12/01 01:51PM: +265 / -28512/01 02:43PM: +258 / -27812/01 04:09PM: +250 / -27012/02 07:07AM: +260 / -28012/02 09:36AM: +270 / -30012/02 11:51AM: +265 / -28512/02 11:55AM: +270 / -30012/02 03:04PM: +265 / -28512/02 03:12PM: +260 / -28012/02 03:16PM: +253 / -27312/02 03:50PM: +250 / -27012/02 03:56PM: +258 / -27812/02 04:44PM: +260 / -28012/02 06:19PM: +256 / -27612/02 06:36PM: +265 / -285

 

[VegasVic]

MONEYLINES
12/01 01:37PM: +250 / -300
12/02 04:04PM: +260 / -310
12/02 06:53PM: +250 / -300

I was wrong! It went up at Olympic then back down to the original number. The opposite of what happened at Pinny. So much for that theory


never mind

 

[ewitty]

I'll try to run some numbers on it, but I might be too busy tomorrow. We'll see. Anyway thanks for your help, good luck with the over!

 

[ntfixa]

hey vic, since you like pittsburgh tonite, does that mean you also like the over....i remember a post you made like a week or so ago that where you posted numbers for when pittsburgh wins the game usually goes over and when they lose it goes under....actually that nite you posted, i think pittsburgh lost 2-1 to minny

 

[SportSavant]

I can definatly forecast better than pick in CFL, NFL and NCAAF, probably NHL as well.

Havent had as much time lately... but if you could actually BET on which way the line will move, I would love to make those wagers.

 

[VegasVic]

hey vic, since you like pittsburgh tonite, does that mean you also like the over....i remember a post you made like a week or so ago that where you posted numbers for when pittsburgh wins the game usually goes over and when they lose it goes under....actually that nite you posted, i think pittsburgh lost 2-1 to minny

Sorry I haven't responded earlier.

If I was to answer this yesterday, before the game was played, I would have honestly said no. Despite the recent correlation between Penguins victories to the over, last night didn't set up well for it. How it did set up was for what happened. A low scoring game with OT likely.

I liked Pittsburgh but wanted nothing to do with betting against the Rangers in OT/SO. How I played it was taking Pittsburgh in regulation for 3/4 of a unit at +179. My insurance policy was putting the last 1/4 unit on the draw line at +280. The only way I could lose money on this game was a Ranger victory in regulation. I considered breaking even in this game a bad beat. Pens should have won it in 60 minutes.

I'm not a big believer of the Rangers in regulation, or once the playoffs begin. The only thing they excel at is the shootout and in net. Take OT decisions away and they are a ordinary 11-8. Very overrated team in my opinion. Unless they pick up some scoring, (Sundin would be a perfect fit for this team providing they can create cap space for him). Without additional scoring they will be a early out come post season.

 

[ewitty]

Have we considered the possibility that being forced to risk 1 unit on a dog yet play to win 1 unit on a fav (the default option on most sportsbooks since they love making money) is what's screwing us up, moreso than the early/late line movement?