question for sports book operators (or anyone else) on the blance of betting for the SB

DavidMatthews · Jan 25, 2004

Last Sunday, right when the teams were decided, everyone said people would load up on the Patriots.

It now seems that every person I talk to likes the Panthers and the Under. It doesn't matter, sharp or square, big bettor (5 dimes a game or more), or $10 parlay bettor.

Panthers and under.

My question is, is there a decent balance of money coming in on both sides? Also, is there a decent balance of money on the toal.

Based on what I've seen, I would expect the books to have a large exposure on Panthers and under (which has me a little worried actually).

Are there people out there keeping the balance even?

wilheim · Jan 25, 2004

This is a situation where an operating model such as the one Pinnacle uses is perfect. No one wants to go back and forth from 6.5 to 7 as money comes in. Naturally by moving the juice one way or another according to what side you need is preferable for most bookmakers. Do I like the practice as a player, of course not, unfortunately it is the way things are these days. My guess is any book using this juice movement method will have a fairly even chart on both side and total.

wil.

Fishhead · Jan 25, 2004

WIL- EXACTLY!!!

I would go so far to say that 85% of the books should be in a WIN-WIN situaton on the side!!!

Probably the total too, but honestly havent given it much thought.

The books just DO NOT want to see a 7 point NE victory and wash everything out and plus pay the players that took less than -7.

This should be a very good Superbowl for the books...........one in which they deserve(did I really say that?).

DavidMatthews · Jan 25, 2004

There's another big reason to put 6.5 on the game and move the money rather than put 7 up there.

I think the Mirage has had 7 since it opened. If the game lands with Pats by 7, the Mirage makes no money on the side. They have to refund a bunch of tickets.

Pinnacle will get a decision on the game, and will collect their juice.

wilheim · Jan 25, 2004

Not to mention the Mirage will have to pay all buys plus or minus. If the game falls 7 there will be a lot of long faces in the bookmaking business.

wil.

DavidMatthews · Jan 25, 2004

Good point... and the more I think about it, Pinnacle is perfect (no surprise there I guess).

They get a decision on the game win or lose, and they probably have Carolina action since they are +102 on the Panthers

Books with 6.5 -110 probably won't get much Panthers action because everybody will take +7 at another shop. Books with 7 will probably not get that much Patriots action because people will bet -6.5 at another place.

Pinnacle probably makes more money (with less risk) with their line with 10 cents vig, than many places will make with 20 cents vig.

RIOSHILL · Jan 25, 2004

This game is pretty balanced right now. This game should be very good for all books no matter who wins if it doesn't land on 6 or 7.

Fishhead · Jan 26, 2004

I think this game will have the bookmakers sweating the 7 heading into the 4th quarter.

A good chance I think that NE will be leading by 3-14 points heading into the final quarter.