Question for Sharp Baseball Bettors

[SportSavant]

5 Dimes Currently has this alternative Line available

Mar-30 2981 NYY M MUSSINA -R -2½+165
5:05 AM 2982 TAM V ZAMBRANO-R +2½-190

This line is available at Pinny:

Tue 3/30 981 New York Yankees
M. Mussina -1.5 -137 -241 M. Mussina must start OVER 9.5 +101
02:05 AM 982 Tampa Bay Devil Ray
V. Zambrano +1.5 +127 +223 V. Zambrano must start UNDER 9.5 -111


MY LOCAL HAS TBAY + 2 -130.

How much roughly is the 1/2 run worth in Baseball...Is the line I have with my local of any value? Seems to be about 60 cents difference in either case...

 

[Mosi]

Don't know if there is an exact answer, but looking at it in pure numbers:

Tampa is +1- +127
Tampa is is +2- -190

So the difference of one run here is laying 117 dollars, divided by two would 58.5 dollars. You could deduce reasonably that Tampa +2 should be the middle of +127 and -190 or in other words Tampa +2 -131.5. Your local would appear to be right with his number in this case.

Personally I do not play run lines. If I do not think the team can win outright, I do not play. Would hate to lay lumber with the D Rays just to get some runs.

 

[SSI]

you playing tomorrow SS, im not starting until next week at earliest.. would possibly play the over.. doing a little womens bb tonight..

 

[truelyhandicapping]

IT SEEMS LIKE TO PICK A WINNER IN BASEBALL IS HARD ENOUGH, TO GIVE RUNS I ALWAYS GET SCREWED.

THAT -2 AT +160 IS +160 FOR A REASON, IT'S A SUCKER BET.

I ALWAYS SEEMED TO GET SCREWED AT GIVING RUNS.

PLAYED BALL THROUGH COLLEGE, AND GIVING TWO RUNS IN BASEBALL I THINK IS LIKE GIVING 14 IN FOOTBALL, OR 10 IN BASKETBALL.


BASEBALL IS THE ONLY SPORT THAT ONE PERSON CAN WIN A GAME BY HIMSELF. NO OTHER SPORT CAN SAY THAT, WELL TENNIS OR GOLF.
BEST OF LUCK

 

[SportSavant]

SSI, if I do decide to bet the first week it will be simply taking advantage of what I beleive to be mathematically sound, probably UNDERDOG plays...

 

[SSI]

same here savant, i played the first game over, didnt like either side but expect some offense for the Japaneese folks.. will try to pick my spots until each team has about 10-15 games in the books, im still going to take the stance of "less is more", in the number of plays.. big cards daily and we will be forced to cut down on the plays..