Question for Rolltide

outhousetim · Nov 17, 2015

Interesting situation related to Boise.

They lost outright as about a 31 point favorite.

What do you show on teams that lost outright as perhaps a 21.5 or more point favorite and how they fare the very next week?
Does it matter if they lost at home or on road, if they are next at home or on road, etc?

Probably not a large sample size, but let me know if you have anything related on this. Thanks.

rivercitybirdie · Nov 17, 2015

i see 45% ATS on 80 games since january 2009.., 52.5% since jan 2011

not sure my query was exact what u asked but shud be helpful

op:line<=-21.5 and op

oints+op:line+21.5<=opo

oints and 20110101<=date

killersports.com... now that i look at syntax it might be wrong... fyi, i usually set up criteria with nba matrix and cut/paste to ncaa query ( no matrix for ncaaf)

rivercitybirdie · Nov 17, 2015

last 2 years 28+ point miss (any point spread tho) = 57 or 58% win rate (sorry don't have exact number on computer anymore)

rivercitybirdie · Nov 17, 2015

problem with small sample size is 60% can swing to 60% with no real significance

i will say lines seem to move violently on extreme recent performance. i'd say more fading horrible performances (SMU comes to mind first)

rolltide · Nov 17, 2015

outhouse tim said:
Interesting situation related to Boise.

They lost outright as about a 31 point favorite.

What do you show on teams that lost outright as perhaps a 21.5 or more point favorite and how they fare the very next week?
Does it matter if they lost at home or on road, if they are next at home or on road, etc?

Probably not a large sample size, but let me know if you have anything related on this. Thanks.

not a big sample size but not very good if losing as >3 TD fav especially on normal rest. site doesn't matter...almost exact percentage whether home or away. you can even peel it back to -19 and get more games in there and still not a 40% cover. worst spot would be like this week with home game after the home upset loss

p:FL and p:line <= -19 and game type = RS and rest < 8

SU:	83-70-0 (2.14, 54.2%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	58-90-5 (-2.79, 39.2%)	avg line: -4.9	+6: 98-54-1 (64.5%)	-6: 38-113-2 (25.2%)	+10: 112-40-1 (73.7%)	-10: 29-118-6 (19.7%)
O/U:	18-28-2 (-0.18, 39.1%)	avg total: 55.5	+6: 13-35-0 (27.1%)	-6: 29-19-0 (60.4%)	+10: 10-38-0 (20.8%)	-10: 33-14-1 (70.2%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	37.1	171.0	31.3	18.1	218.1	1.7	5.8	7.8	5.5	8.0	26.0
Opp	36.6	163.2	31.7	19.7	226.2	1.8	6.3	9.0	6.1	6.6	23.8

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 20, 2015		Friday	12	2015	BOIS	AIR	home						-12.0	56.5

p:HFL and p:line <= -19 and game type = RS and rest < 8 and H

SU:	22-21-0 (0.28, 51.2%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	12-31-0 (-5.20, 27.9%)	avg line: -5.5	+6: 21-21-1 (50.0%)	-6: 6-37-0 (14.0%)	+10: 31-11-1 (73.8%)	-10: 6-37-0 (14.0%)
O/U:	7-10-0 (1.85, 41.2%)	avg total: 55.0	+6: 5-12-0 (29.4%)	-6: 12-5-0 (70.6%)	+10: 4-13-0 (23.5%)	-10: 13-4-0 (76.5%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Comp	Pass Yds	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	37.5	169.5	33.2	19.3	231.9	1.6	5.1	9.1	6.7	9.8	25.1
Opp	34.6	143.2	33.8	20.8	239.1	1.7	5.6	8.1	5.5	6.1	24.8

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Nov 20, 2015		Friday	12	2015	BOIS	AIR	home						-12.0	56.5

and gets worse if the upset occurred after first month of season and opponent doesn't totally stink

p:FL and p:line <= -18 and game type = RS and rest < 8 and week > 3 and H and o:WP >= 20

SU:	33-32-0 (2.52, 50.8%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	18-47-0 (-4.62, 27.7%)	avg line: -7.1	+6: 33-31-1 (51.6%)	-6: 12-53-0 (18.5%)	+10: 44-20-1 (68.8%)	-10: 11-53-1 (17.2%)
O/U:	5-9-0 (-2.57, 35.7%)	avg total: 54.9	+6: 3-11-0 (21.4%)	-6: 8-6-0 (57.1%)	+10: 2-12-0 (14.3%)	-10: 8-6-0 (57.1%)