Question for our Scandinavian friends (Duckstabber at least)

[acw]

What makes these Euro finals so interesting is that ordinary math will not always give you the right answer.

I only made two proposition bets, one on Sweden and one on Denmark to win the tournament. Best would be if indeed Italy gets kicked out during these group stages and both teams go to the next stage. I think it is not impossible. Denmark can win against Bulgaria and Italy is not odds on against Sweden.

What if Sweden wins against Italy and Denmark draws Bulgaria, will Sweden help the Danes allowing them to win against them?
Or what if Sweden wins against Italy and Denmark wins narrowly against Bulgaria, will Sweden not give Denmark at least a draw to secure their place for the next round?

If Holland would have to help its neighbor Germany, this will never happen!
Holland and Belgium are not best friends, especially Belgians do not like the Dutch, but I think both teams will do the right thing in this situation, so I need some nationalistic advice from the Scandinavians on board.

 

[JackDee]

hmm, i like your style there acw, the old diplomatic, nation state, co-operation or not factor, you do look ahead.

 

[matahari]

Same goes for Spain and Portugal.

 

[Duckstabber]

It's definitely not impossible that the Swedes would help us if they had to. The relations between Sweden and Denmark are pretty good and friendly - much more so than Holland/Belgium etc. E.g. when Denmark played against Germany in the 1992 final (in Göteborg, Sweden) the vast mojority of Swedes rooted for Denmark. On top of that many Swedes play in the Danish Superleague.

I wish Sweden the best of luck in the tournament but if they beat us on Tuesday I'll never forgive them

 

[JackDee]

btw, a really good display by your team there duck, with italy, italians should be thanking boofon.

 

[acw]

If Denmark has brains, they will settle for the 1-1 draw (Come on! Why help Italy? Those Italians will fvck you whenever they can. Everyone knows that) and let Italy do the hard work of beating Bulgary with at least 3-0, not easy at all!

Anyhow just had a look at the draw for Sweden-Denmark on BetFair 2.46. Is this a gift?

 

[JackDee]

you are missing something out here acw, as i posted earlier the ranking criteria are, in order of importance:

"1. the result when one faced the other (for two teams) 2. the goal difference each has in their in between games (for three or more teams) 3.The team with the better offense in their in between games (three teams or more) 4. their total goal difference, those scored minus those accepted 5. the best overall offence 6. the points each team won in the past euro and world cup qualifying rounds 7. the team with the highest points in fair play (bookings). 8. ultimately there's a pk."

Accordingly, the italians have to win bulgarians even by the odd goal. The goal difference, or better offense IN THEIR IN BETWEEN GAMES is what matters. Thus, with two draws at 1-1, and 0-0, so far, if the end result for Sweden - Denmark is a 2-2 or higher draw, then that would live italy at 1-1, with Sweden at 3-3 (or higher) and Denmark at 2-2 (or higher) and thus Danish and Swedish go though having better offenses in those 3 in between games (goal difference being the same). But, in case you where to bet the over or italy to score a lot of goals v. Bulgaria, the score of this game is irrelevant, only italy's victory will matter for the italians. And you can thank you good buddy jack for this piece of advice later, just joking.

What are the odds for a 2-2 draw then? D:

 

[acw]

Jack,

If those rules are right, then they can even make it a certainty! Fvck he! Italy still being 9.0 on BetFair to win the tournament is unbelievably under the odds.

 

[JackDee]

at 9.0, they are indeed way, way, underpriced, if sweds and danish want too, yeah sure they can make sure italians dont go through but it's easier to set up a goal-less draw than a 2-2 one, but the rules are right for sure, i ve got them from various sources, including the official euro website.

 

[acw]

Thanks guys!

 

[Mr NJ Sports]

I watched that game...no conspiracy...just a 2-2 draw. both teams had good chances all game...mostly denmark

perhaps italy shouldve played the 1st 2 games like they did their last 45 minutes of the tourney

 

[Antonioli]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> I watched that game...no conspiracy...just a 2-2 draw. both teams had good chances all game...mostly denmark <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


i watched the game too, but the score does make you wonder. correct score @2-2 were priced at @4.50 at most places, draw were priced @2.20 at most places.

 

[JackDee]

good to see you here antonio.

imo it was indeed a set up, after all the scandinavian empty talk on uprightness, and italians being the sole ones perpetreating such dishonesties, and that they were going to play for the victory, the 2-2 comes in. I am not saying that they got together and preplanned it, although they might have, but that a tacit alliance was formed during the game, a good buddy of mine who's way older than me and has been watching football for like the past 40 years believes it was a set up, and one of the most masterful ones for that matter, i believe him, kinda like a eurovision song contest scenario where the scandinavians give each other 12 points. But you know, i d expected greece to have done the same thing, why not, italians would, and actually did in the previous world cup for the past ten minutes with the mexicans (if my memory serves me well) they were playing passes in their own half, like in the end of yesterdays game, because the result served both the mexicans and the italians. Let's face it boys, set ups happen everyday, there are a part of football.

 

[acw]

Another setup coming!

If Switserland beats Togo, then if Korea and Switserland draw 2-2, France will be out!

 

[Antonioli]

Next round of matches: Wednesday 6 December
Hamburg v CSKA Moscow
Porto v Arsenal
<!-- S IBOX --><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=208 align=right border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=5>

</TD><TD class=sibtbgf>Arsenal .......Pts 10 F7 A3
Porto ...........Pts 10 F9 A4
CSKA ...........Pts 8 F2 A2
Hamburg .....Pts 0 F4 A13

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- E IBOX -->
The competition's complicated count-back rules may come into play in this tightest of groups if the top three finish level on points. CSKA must win in Hamburg but will not go through if the game in Porto ends level. Arsenal and Porto would qualify in the 'mini-table' of results of games involving the trio.

 

[acw]

Those Italians, the masters in fixing matches, will get fixed out again! I love it!