First off, thanks for asking Lawerence.
Love both quarterbacks in this game and this should be another bowl game that is a shootout.
I believe a couple of the strong keys to handicapping this game is in favor of CONN.............and that is they were snubbed by the bowls last year after losing only 3 games and the fact that this is their first bowl game ever.
They should play with great motivation.
They opened up +3 and know are at +3.5 and may go higher.
I would think if you get +4 with a motivated team with an excellent coach, you have to take that side.
Also, the secondary for Toledo reminds me a little of the PACKERS secondary when i watched them during the year......non-existant and bad tacklers.
One negative is the fact this bowl game is going to be played in familar terriotory for Toledo, on a field they have played at before..............plus they should have a small advantage in the home crowd.............but also am expecting CONN to send quite a few fans since this is their first bowl game.
So anyway, my lean is towards CONN, possibly +4