The lines are always too high. They are often a heavy favorite and Vegas gets tons of action from idiots vacationing that have no idea what is going on, thus I believe they make the lines a bit higher than the true line should be. Has anyone ever run a study to see how you would do betting AGAINST the Yankees every game of the season for ONE unit. I would almost guarantee it would net you a profit. I am quite certain it would have last year, being only 16 or so games over .500. Anyone agree with me? Think I am crazy?
Well this is somewhat true and somewhat a fallacy. In the begging of the season, when all teams are healthy, i find it hard to bet against CC, A.J, Wang, Becket, Lester, Dice-K, and Zambrano. The Yanks were somewhat hurt in pitching last year, that certainly helped afirm their 16 games above .500 record.
This info is available for all teams at covers (searchable by year)
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pa...2009/teammoneystatistics_mlb_regular.html&t=0
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pa...2009/teammoneystatistics_mlb_regular.html&t=0
This idea has been brought up before. I don't know if it was on here or on another site. If you look hard enough, you'll be able to find it I'm sure. Maybe try google. Either way, the strategy and payoff for this are obviously highly dependent on how many games they win. Some Simple Math...assuming you BET $100 on the ML regardless of how much it is (remember this is BET $100, not win $100) And the AVG ML to break EVEN on your bets would have to be in games the Yanks lose. It doesn't matter what the ML is when the yanks win, because you are losing $100 either way.
Yanks Wins....Net Loss.......Net Wins........AVG ML when Yanks LOSE
81.................$8100.............81........................EVEN
85.................$8500.............77.......................+130
90.................$9000.............72.......................+139
95.................$9500.............67.......................+150
100...............$10000............62.......................+162
So, lets assume they win 95 games (which was their regular season win total line on most sportsbooks). Every game that you bet a flat $100. They are going to win 95 games, so you lose a flat $9500. They are going to lose 67 games...and to just break EVEN on your money, for every game the Yankees lose, you would have to be the dog on average of +150. That means the Yanks are going to have to be favs of about -160.
Remember, thats to break even. I just don't think the ROI is there. You'd be better off just betting the Yanks regular season win total as under.
Yanks Wins....Net Loss.......Net Wins........AVG ML when Yanks LOSE
81.................$8100.............81........................EVEN
85.................$8500.............77.......................+130
90.................$9000.............72.......................+139
95.................$9500.............67.......................+150
100...............$10000............62.......................+162
So, lets assume they win 95 games (which was their regular season win total line on most sportsbooks). Every game that you bet a flat $100. They are going to win 95 games, so you lose a flat $9500. They are going to lose 67 games...and to just break EVEN on your money, for every game the Yankees lose, you would have to be the dog on average of +150. That means the Yanks are going to have to be favs of about -160.
Remember, thats to break even. I just don't think the ROI is there. You'd be better off just betting the Yanks regular season win total as under.
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