Question about totals for NBA bettors

[HinesWard86]

Is a 4 point middle at -110 on each side profitable long-term? I'm positive it is, but am hoping someone who knows the numbers can tell me the percentages.



I'm sure someone like Fish or Iceman could answer. Would love to know.

 

[whalewager]

4 pt is unbelievably profitable...

at -110

 

[whalewager]

bet as much as you can afford

 

[HinesWard86]

bet as much as you can afford

I pretty much emptied out one of my accounts doing it.

It was the Utah/Orlando game. I have Over 202 and Under 205.

Do you know any numbers of how profitable it is ww?

 

[HacheMan]

Have always heard it is

But then you have guys contradict themselves & say you should never middle/hedge at halftime WITH THE SAME OR USUALLY BIGGER OPPORTUNITIES TO MIDDLE and stick with your original wager......#%()

 

[whalewager]

I pretty much emptied out one of my accounts doing it.

It was the Utah/Orlando game. I have Over 202 and Under 205.

Do you know any numbers of how profitable it is ww?

no I dont know the exact %....

I just know you can play as much as you can afford and win...4 pt middles in NBA is strong

who were u getting the bad number with? or was it overnights?

 

[HinesWard86]

no I dont know the exact %....

I just know you can play as much as you can afford and win...4 pt middles in NBA is strong

who were u getting the bad number with? or was it overnights?

Caught a book napping and then caught 202 at another book before it bounced back

 

[whalewager]

goodcall d2bets fish...many others could tell you probably exact %

but that is a huge advantage if you are a middler

 

[Santo]

Have always heard it is

But then you have guys contradict themselves & say you should never middle/hedge at halftime WITH THE SAME OR USUALLY BIGGER OPPORTUNITIES TO MIDDLE and stick with your original wager......#%()

It's not a contradiction, it's to do with your relative EV at pre-game and halftime

 

[royboy_3831]

Have always heard it is

But then you have guys contradict themselves & say you should never middle/hedge at halftime WITH THE SAME OR USUALLY BIGGER OPPORTUNITIES TO MIDDLE and stick with your original wager......#%()

different situation like santo already explained...

 

[HacheMan]

I'm not sure how you guys think it's a different situation......???


Option 1
A regular middle as Hines asks about in this thread

Lets use a 4pt middle

We take New York +7.5 vs Orlando
Rashard Lewis & Hedo Turkoglu are then scratched from the lineup & the line drops to Orlando -3.5, so we take the other side, Orlando -3.5.

That gives up a legitimate 4points to land inbetween & to hit 2 winners.
We have NO IDEA ahead of time how it will end up, we are simply rolling the dice hoping it lands in the middle to hit both wagers.


Option 2
We take Phoenix/Golden State Under 244

Only 110 pts are scored in the 1st half

2nd half line is 115

We now have the option to either sit on our original wager, or play the over 115 WITH THE OPPORTUNTIY FOR A 19 POINT MIDDLE.

Once again, just like a regular middle, in most cases we have no idea how it will end up, but just like that regular middle, we now have a chance to win 2 WAGERS instead of one at no risk except juice.......JUST LIKE A REGULAR MIDDLE

Now which is a better bargain in your opinion......a 4 point middle, which is unheard of usually anyhow, or a 19 point middle in which the exact same risks, circumstances, and outcomes are the same?

I'm not arguing guys, just having good discussion........:toast:

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

I doubt it hits enough to make up for all the juice you'll lose if you do this all the time.

 

[HinesWard86]

I doubt it hits enough to make up for all the juice you'll lose if you do this all the time.

That's why I want the numbers if someone has them.

Has to hit 1 in every 13ish times to be profitable. I think it will hit once in every 13 times but I want to make sure

 

[totalsquare]

I'm not sure how you guys think it's a different situation......???


Option 1
A regular middle as Hines asks about in this thread

Lets use a 4pt middle

We take New York +7.5 vs Orlando
Rashard Lewis & Hedo Turkoglu are then scratched from the lineup & the line drops to Orlando -3.5, so we take the other side, Orlando -3.5.

That gives up a legitimate 4points to land inbetween & to hit 2 winners.
We have NO IDEA ahead of time how it will end up, we are simply rolling the dice hoping it lands in the middle to hit both wagers.


Option 2
We take Phoenix/Golden State Under 244

Only 110 pts are scored in the 1st half

2nd half line is 115

We now have the option to either sit on our original wager, or play the over 115 WITH THE OPPORTUNTIY FOR A 19 POINT MIDDLE.

Once again, just like a regular middle, in most cases we have no idea how it will end up, but just like that regular middle, we now have a chance to win 2 WAGERS instead of one at no risk except juice.......JUST LIKE A REGULAR MIDDLE

Now which is a better bargain in your opinion......a 4 point middle, which is unheard of usually anyhow, or a 19 point middle in which the exact same risks, circumstances, and outcomes are the same?

I'm not arguing guys, just having good discussion........:toast:

Option 2 is just 2 independent bets

 

[Santo]

"at no risk except juice" is your fallacy. In the second case your original investment of $1000 or whatever is now worth substantially more than it was pre-game.

 

[onemwtheone]

Rule of thumb I use -- 1/2 point on totals for NBA is worth about 1.2%, so a full point is worth 2.4%. So 4 points is worth almost 10%.

Of course, more than likely one side is right, so why play that one. Take the one that's out to lunch and have a 60% rate of return.

Another reason not to middle is the bad line might null the bet since they were so out of whack.

 

[whalewager]

you are either a middler or u aint...

its profitable

 

[punter]

I try and middle every chance I get, unfortunately, I aint smart enough to get a lot of good chances.

 

[HinesWard86]

Rule of thumb I use -- 1/2 point on totals for NBA is worth about 1.2%, so a full point is worth 2.4%. So 4 points is worth almost 10%.

Of course, more than likely one side is right, so why play that one. Take the one that's out to lunch and have a 60% rate of return.

Another reason not to middle is the bad line might null the bet since they were so out of whack.

Me and Iceman got into a discussion about this last time I posted about middles.

I did some looking and I didn't find statistically significant evidence to just bet the side at one book rather than scalp or middle.

Tested it over a decent amount of games but just didn't find the evidence there. Now, if I'm finding 2-3 point differences on a regular basis that's one thing, but I'm not.

 

[NorthernStar]

I don't think middling totals is a good strategy. You only get once chance to hit your middle.....unlike a side middle where it can move back and forth. Also middles on large numbers seem less likely to hit...a 3-5 middle is more likely to hit than say 28-30 middle.