Queen of Hearts Exploiting the NFL week #4 2015

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LADY LUCK
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Moving right along into week#4 coming off of an 8-0 week (including two double downs at different odds and spread) feels great. I’ve always said that it means nothing if you cannot follow it up with an outstanding performance the next week. It means nothing. Not a dam thing unless you can follow up. The real money and the time to get down and dirty is weeks # 5 - 12. Right now is a time to get your feet wet, get your tools polished, and develop a focus that cannot be broken. There is absolutely no reason for making large wagers this early. Those opportunities will come as the season goes along. Leave those kinds of wagers to the salesmen and those who dream of fool’s gold. Trust me, Ive been there and done that. It does not work.

I believe that in order to become successful at this thing that we all do here that you have to pay the price more than once. You have to pay your dues and learn from your mistakes. Ive been playing the NFL lines for 19 years now and Ive made more than my fair share of mistakes and I have lost boat loads of $$ along the way. I have a ton of friends via these forums. Literally hundreds and hundreds and hundreds that I can call upon at the drop of a dime. Ive had the cream of the crop teach me things in the middle of the night, in the middle of a game, and from some asshole out of nowhere drop into my threads talking shit. I thought they were talking shit at the time but little did I know that years later, what they told me was true. You have to learn from your mistakes. You have to listen when people try to help you. You cannot just keep making the same mistakes over and over and over and expect the outcome to be different. It does not work.

I was taught the art of capping the NFL to be a stat-capper. That was my first mistake. Not a total mistake but a mistake to rely upon stats as sole basis for taking a position upon any given spread. Stats alone will get you absolutely no where. You have to learn to read between the lines. You have to learn to devote time and repetition each and every week the old fashion way with a pencil and a piece of paper to utilize stats in the proper way to beat the NFL. If you do not, then you will lose your ass. No question about it. Don’t know where to start? I would suggest DPR. As a matter of fact, if I were on a deserted island with no contact to the outside world and asked to pick 5 games on any given NFL week and I could only use one statistical fact, I would ask for DPR. PRD would even be better but let’s not get greedy. Did you get that Cwissy ? Pay attention to the situation and watch those stats that matter change each and every week without any distractions and a beautiful picture will be painted for you right before your very eyes. I guarantee you that.

Week # 4 on the table and I am ready to make my move. My card this week looks very similar to last weeks card. I did not plan it that way. It just so happened to reflect very closely of what I did last week. I play what the odds maker deals me each week. Last week I felt that I was dealt a royal flush the moment that I submitted my action. I feel the exact same way this week.


I am going to go after week #4 just like this:

Arizona Cardinals -6 (-115) $300

Atlanta Falcons -5' (-114) $300

Buffalo Bills -5' $300

Cincinnati Bengals -4 $300

New York Jets -1’ (-109) $300


4 team 6’ pt teaser ties win (+250) $100
Green Bay -3
Arizona-1
Atlanta –‘
Cincinnati +2’

Now , of those five sides that I took, they have a combine ATS record of 13-2. Only Buffalo and the J-E-T-S have failed to cover one game each. Buffalo failed to cover against the Patriots and the Jets failed to cover against the Eagles.


PRD – This is what I would take if I could only see one statistical fact.

Arizona +51 Rams -20
Buffalo +34 New York +5
Cincinnati +31 Kansa City-13
Jets +24 Miami -24
Atlanta +10 Houston -21



Looks like $$ to me.…

Thank you for reading ,
Queen of Hearts
 

"Calling All The Shots"
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PRD – This is what I would take if I could only see one statistical fact.

Arizona +51 Rams -20
Buffalo +34 New York +5
Cincinnati +31 Kansa City-13
Jets +24 Miami -24
Atlanta +10 Houston -21


What exactly is this?
I don't understand this.

Thanks, ShotDoc
 

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QOH.........nicely done last week............solid looking card this week.............lov Arz and Cinn..............continued success.............indy
 
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Season: 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Date:

RankTeam2015Last 3Last 1HomeAway2014
1Arizona58.658.616.750.775.185.8
2Denver59.059.074.538.268.681.9
3Carolina66.366.389.771.354.589.8
4NY Jets66.566.573.274.952.8101.5
5Buffalo78.178.159.786.559.774.5
6Green Bay79.279.280.285.267.582.0
7Dallas81.781.7109.189.965.690.4
8Philadelphia81.781.762.6106.072.891.6
9Houston85.485.469.392.971.380.4
10Minnesota85.485.494.786.183.092.9
11Tennessee85.585.582.682.687.393.6
12San Diego87.687.650.983.590.091.3
13NY Giants90.090.069.882.7103.389.4
14New England90.290.283.189.793.382.3
15Atlanta90.490.487.877.1100.888.9
16Baltimore92.892.8122.3122.381.891.3
17St Louis94.094.084.787.9110.391.8
18Cincinnati94.794.792.4113.189.377.7
19Indianapolis95.195.184.293.396.187.1
20Washington96.396.3119.185.2119.1108.3
21Oakland98.998.983.8108.383.896.9
22Tampa Bay100.3100.375.6158.378.097.2
23Miami101.8101.8136.7136.786.089.7
24Kansas City101.9101.9138.586.9110.286.4
25Jacksonville102.2102.2118.192.9118.199.1
26Cleveland102.9102.9115.9105.495.774.1
27Seattle104.3104.361.661.6116.480.6
28Detroit106.7106.7101.7101.7108.184.6
29Pittsburgh108.8108.870.6106.7110.399.2
30San Francisco111.6111.6102.579.0129.279.5
31New Orleans119.6119.6119.7114.6121.392.9
32Chicago123.8123.8101.4128.0101.4101.8



Can you gives us all a little FYI on DPR?
 

LADY LUCK
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Can you gives us all a little FYI on DPR?

an FYI......hmmmm

Well .....its obvious what DPR is Grindstone. Its a measurement of the defenses ability to stop the passing game/ the exact opposite of Passer rating. calculated the exact same from the defensive view.

An FYI would be something like.....let me dig for a minute and Ill give you an FYI.



FINAL 2007 DEFENSIVE PASSER RATING (playoff teams in BOLD italics)

Team
Att.
Comp.
Pct
YPA
TD
INT
RATING
1
San Diego
555
338
60.9
6.64
20
30
70.0
2
Seattle
568
333
58.6
6.70
15
20
73.0
3
Indianapolis
498
325
65.3
5.88
16
22
73.3
4
Tennessee
569
349
61.3
6.03
21
22
74.5
5
Dallas
581
342
58.9
6.42
19
19
75.1
6
Green Bay
534
295
55.2
6.71
23
19
75.6
7
Jacksonville
543
319
58.7
6.74
20
20
76.1
8
Tampa Bay
490
297
60.6
5.99
18
16
76.2
9
Pittsburgh
536
292
54.5
5.72
22
11
76.5
10
Washington
602
351
58.3
6.02
20
14
77.1
11
New England
526
314
59.7
6.43
23
19
78.1
12
Oakland​
439​
261​
59.5​
7.56​
17​
18​
78.9​
13
Philadelphia​
539​
312​
57.9​
6.85​
16​
11​
80.3​
14
Kansas City​
462​
276​
59.7​
7.09​
17​
14​
81.0​
15
Buffalo​
567​
354​
62.4​
6.98​
19​
18​
81.1​
16
NY Jets​
470​
289​
61.5​
7.15​
18​
15​
82.6​
17
NY Giants
523
306
58.5
7.01
24
15
83.4
18
Cleveland​
578​
340​
58.8​
6.69​
29​
17​
83.4​
19
Chicago​
541​
343​
63.4​
7.31​
19​
16​
84.7​
20
St. Louis​
523​
318​
60.8​
7.36​
25​
18​
85.0​
21
Carolina​
537​
337​
62.8​
6.71​
22​
14​
85.1​
22
Arizona​
570​
361​
63.3​
6.94​
26​
18​
85.8​
23
Minnesota​
646​
415​
64.2​
6.97​
22​
15​
86.3​
24
Baltimore​
490​
293​
59.8​
7.63​
27​
17​
87.6​
25
Atlanta​
536​
336​
62.7​
7.09​
27​
16​
88.2​
26
Denver​
458​
279​
60.9​
7.20​
25​
14​
88.3​
27
Cincinnati​
540​
353​
65.4​
7.07​
29​
19​
89.2​
28
San Francisco​
543​
345​
63.5​
7.05​
24​
12​
89.9​
29
Miami​
409​
242​
59.2​
7.79​
28​
14​
92.4​
30
Houston​
546​
361​
66.1​
7.10​
25​
11​
93.6​
31
Detroit​
602​
422​
70.1​
7.29​
32​
17​
96.8​
32
New Orleans​
524​
327​
62.4​
7.87​
32​
13​
96.9​






2008 Defensive Passer Rating (through Week 17) ( PLAYOFF TEAMS IN BOLD ITALICS)

Team
Att.
Comp.
Pct.
Yards
YPA
TD
INT
Rating
1
Ravens*
528
276
52.3
3132
5.93
17
26
60.6
2
Steelers*
533
301
56.5
2862
5.37
12
20
63.4
3
Titans*
576
343
59.5
3460
6.01
12
20
69.2
4
Packers
518
287
55.4
3384
6.53
22
22
71.9
5
Eagles*
525
284
54.1
3225
6.14
19
15
72.9
6
Buccaneers
475
276
58.1
3187
6.71
23
22
75.3
7
Redskins
511
290
56.8
3236
6.33
16
13
75.6
8
Giants*
503
296
58.8
3427
6.81
17
17
76.7
9
Dolphins*
551
320
58.1
3862
7.01
18
18
77.0
10
Bears
622
383
61.6
4076
6.55
21
22
77.2
11
Colts*
482
330
68.5
3213
6.67
6
15
78.1
12
Raiders
471
266
56.5
3408
7.24
20
16
79.3
13
Browns
446
286
64.1
3363
7.54
19
23
79.7
14
Saints
526
299
56.8
3708
7.05
21
15
80.3
15
Panthers*
557
333
59.8
3617
6.49
19
12
81.4
16
Vikings*
530
324
61.1
3753
7.08
15
12
82.5
17
Bills
494
302
61.1
3441
6.97
14
10
83.1
18
Falcons*
549
325
59.2
3771
6.87
20
10
84.6
19
49ers
545
331
60.7
3666
6.73
22
12
85.0
20
Cowboys
508
308
60.6
3377
6.65
19
8
86.2
21
Bengals
506
315
62.3
3413
6.75
23
12
87.3
22
Jets
572
368
64.3
4005
7.0
23
14
88.1
23
Patriots
474
288
60.8
3458
7.3
27
14
89.8
24
Chargers*
605
411
67.9
4090
6.76
25
15
90.3
25
Chiefs
522
348
66.7
3810
7.3
21
13
91.1
26
Texans
471
294
62.4
3598
7.64
24
12
92.3
27
Rams
446
280
62.8
3672
8.23
20
12
92.4
28
Jaguars
465
297
63.9
3777
8.12
25
13
95.4
29
Seahawks
566
366
64.7
4342
7.67
25
9
96.0
30
Cardinals*
517
323
62.5
3731
7.22
36
13
96.9
31
Broncos
495
333
67.3
3797
7.67
20
6
98.5
32
Lions
444
304
68.5
3903
8.79
25
4
110.8


005 defensive passer ratings (playoff teams in bold italics)
Team
%
Yards
YPP
TDs
INTs
Rating
Chicago
56.9
3,147
5.72
10
24
61.2
Carolina
57.8
3,351
6.35
15
23
68.0
Washington
54.4
3,318
6.20
15
16
70.1
Denver
56.1
3,833
6.25
20
20
72.2
Cincinnati
62.4
3,749
7.22
21
31
72.8
N.Y. Jets
61.3
2,948
6.37
17
21
73.1
Tampa Bay
57.8
3,158
6.63
15
17
73.5
Pittsburgh
57.4
3,480
6.34
15
15
74.0
Dallas
54.7
3,319
6.71
18
15
75.1
Minnesota
59.8
3,539
6.64
23
24
75.2
N.Y. Giants
56.7
3,852
6.64
20
17
76.3
Baltimore
56.3
3,228
6.14
18
12
76.4
Seattle
58.0
3,861
6.76
18
16
77.4
Detroit
60.6
3,305
6.79
19
19
77.6
Jacksonville
59.1
3,223
6.69
22
19
78.0
Cleveland
59.2
3,009
6.39
19
15
78.2
Atlanta
60.8
3,394
6.45
18
16
78.4
Arizona
61.8
3,314
6.78
17
15
80.6
Buffalo
62.4
3,560
7.08
19
17
82.1
Philadelphia
59.0
3,507
6.97
24
17
82.2
Kansas City
58.1
3,862
6.91
25
16
82.3
Miami
58.8
3,682
6.71
23
14
82.4
Indianapolis
67.4
3,469
6.82
17
18
83.0
San Diego
59.6
3,888
6.86
20
10
84.7
New Orleans
57.7
3,014
7.21
20
10
86.2
Green Bay
58.6
2,876
6.69
22
10
87.8
New England
56.2
3,929
7.45
25
10
87.8
St. Louis
61.9
3,619
7.14
26
13
89.8
Oakland
60.9
3,481
7.16
18
5
90.7
San Francisco
64.9
4,620
8.02
28
16
94.2
Houston
64.8
3,727
7.95
24
7
100.0
Tennessee
63.0
3,462
7.37
33
9
100.7

 

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Messages
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Queen,

I am really interested in this DPR and PRD, would you mind if i create a thread to track this statistic in relation to some other stuff? I am just asking because I don't want to take credit for your idea, just want to crunch the data on it.
 

LADY LUCK
Joined
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Messages
6,923
Tokens
Queen,

I am really interested in this DPR and PRD, would you mind if i create a thread to track this statistic in relation to some other stuff? I am just asking because I don't want to take credit for your idea, just want to crunch the data on it.


First of all,
My name is Monica and its a pleasure to meet you. I would love for you to do that. I think its a great idea. Ill even help you get started. Have you ever heard of Kerry Byrne ? He has an outstanding arsenal of stats and his DPR sheet updates every Tuesday. You should check him out.

Ill get you started for week #4,
look closely ....


QUALITY STATS
WeekRPYPA/DRPYPASCOR/BENDORR/DRRTTY/TTYAOPR/DPRQBR/DQBR
Week 113-213-20-150-1515-014-1
Week 214-215-10-160-1613-315-1
Week 312-415-10-160-1614-216-0
Regular Season39-843-40-470-4742-545-2
Rate83.0%91.5%0.0%0.0%89.4%95.7%

COMMONLY USED STATS
WeekPYdsRYdsRY/A
Week 15-109-66-9
Week 27-910-67-9
Week 39-714-211-5
Regular Season21-2633-1424-23
Rate
 

New member
Joined
Oct 29, 2014
Messages
840
Tokens
Cool, I am going to start by ranking PRD and tie it in to ATS record, start building from there.
 

New member
Joined
Sep 3, 2013
Messages
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Great run! Always good to see you share the love with your capping insights. It's more useful than you realize.

I'm hoping on your Zona train and I LOVE the J-E-T-S this week.

BOL, CC
 

LADY LUCK
Joined
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Messages
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Arizona Cardinals -6 (-115) $300

Atlanta Falcons -5' (-114) $300

Buffalo Bills -5' $300

Cincinnati Bengals -4 $300

New York Jets -1’ (-109) $300


4 team 6’ pt teaser ties win (+250) $100
Green Bay -3
Arizona-1
Atlanta –‘
Cincinnati +2’

I am adding two more:

Green Bay Packers -7 (-108) $300
Carolina Panthers -3 $300
 
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I give you A+ for your opening act. You are some writer. May I ask what do you do in real life? You have a good imagination. Good Luck !
 

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