Quacks bowl thread...57-41 ats during regular season. Happy holidays

[Addicted2quack]

Im just going to carry over my last updated record from my previous thread to this final thread for the college football season.

my final regular season record was 57-41 ATS (58.1%) not quite 60% so hoping to get there after these final games
my final regular season record on my total plays was 20-20....totals are not my forte and i admit i'm very streaky with my selections.

*This thread is simply here for me to post my picks and encourage healthy discussions about each game and or selection. If you want to provide valuable insight or ask questions please do so in a constructive manner

My bowl game picks are made based upon more than statistics. we all have our own way of capping, so please understand my methods before you choose to disagree. The criteria I use to make my picks are listed below:
Motivation
coaching changes
bowl proximity/travel
bowl magnitude(some are more prestigious than others)
momentum coming into the game
impact players
strength of schedule
strength of conference
common opponents
previous matchups vs that opponent
weather
Injuries


My picks:

12/20

Nevada vs UL Lafayette(New orleans bowl)
these two teams are basically identical in terms of statistics, so you have to look past that. nevada played a much stronger schedule and played in a better conference overall. nevada almost beat arizona, colorado state, air force and boise state...their key wins were washignton state, byu and san diego state. ULL's key win was arkansas state...this game should be good and is essentially a home game for the ragin cajuns but i see nevada winning.

Nevada -1

Utah state vs utep(new mexico bowl)
Travel isnt an issue here for either team and utah state plays the better defense. utep doesnt have one key win all year while utah state beat air force and byu. a lot of people will like the points in this matchup because utah state is on its fourth qb, but utah state has the most explosive player on the field in Natson who is mismatch for anyone on UTEP, ANYONE...defense will trump this game.

Utah State -10

western michigan vs air force (Idaho potato bowl)
western michigans only key win was against central michigan who is fairly average. air force beat colorado state and boise state and this game is fairly close for them, their fans will travel well. i usually dont like picking triple option teams when the other team has had more than a week to prepare for them but in this case i feel like air force is the much better team and played the tougher schedule.. western michigan is brand new to success and although they will be motivated to play in this game they lost a huge mac game against norhtern illinois to play in the mac championship. air force at a pick'em is a steal in my opinion. they will grind this game out.

air force- pick

Utah vs colorado state(las vegas bowl)
travel shouldnt be an issue here at all for either team.the biggest keys here are colorado state losing their head coach and losing their chance at the MWC champiionship game because of a loss to air force at the end of the season. this is a huge disappointment for colorado state to be playing in this bowl. same could be said for utah, but utah played in the second best conference in the nation and plays exceptional defense against some of the most explosive offense in the country. i really think utah will control this game. colorado state throws the football a lot which will be difficult to do against this utah front 7. they flat out alter the other teams passing game by getting to the qb. weather isnt an issue and utah still has their head coach. look for convincing win from utah.

utah -2.5

* im not even thinking about a play between south alabama and bowling green....but if you're looking for some degen action, gun to my head, id lean bowling green +2.5 but its a no play for me!

Bol everyone. i will update each day with games im playing

:anichamp4

 

[Addicted2quack]

3-1 so far, completely wiffed on the nevada game.... Thats why these bowl games are so unpredictable.... Tomorrows selection:

Miami beach bowl:

Byu vs memphis -

This may seem like a mundane bowl game and the only one on tomorrow but I think this will be one of the more physical matchups and I'll explain why. The line came out as a pickem which I agree with, but has now moved to -2 in favor of memphis, which I don't agree with. BYU comes into this game with a 4 game win streak including a win against cal who is arguably one of the top 10 most explosive offenses in the country. Memphis is on a six game win streak coming in. Memphis is going to get a physical beat down. Memphis plays in what I believe is one of the weaker conferences in the fbs. Memphis's six game win streak included the 6 weakest teams in the conference and they barely won two of those games. They don't have one signature win all season and when it comes to common opponents byu and Memphis both played Uconn and houston, byu beat both convincingly while Memphis lost to houston.

Byu played a real schedule with some of the better defensive teams in the nation including ucf, houston, utah state as well as two great offensive teams in cal and boise state. When taysom hill broke his leg byu was in the meat of their schedule and they struggled to find an identity without him. They lost to Utah state, UCF and boise state. Now they've got an identity, a run game, and they can throw the ball. Their defense is always good and extremely physical. Memphis's defensive stats are extremely inflated and I don't think they will be able to consistently stop byu's offensive scheme. Along with that, Memphis relies heavily on the run and read option to open up their passing game..... Byu is one of the best in the country at shutting down a rushingn attack. They are big in the middle and nasty. Memphis will be excited to play in this bowl, but they won't be excited after the first half when their getting beat up at the point of attack on both lines of scrimmage... I expect byu to win this game convincingly. It probably won't be a blow out by any means but I'm looking for a 34-20 win where Memphis struggles to move the ball against a stout defensive front 7.

My pick: byu +2 but I'll wait till tomorrow because I might be able to get it at +3... Either way it shouldn't matter.
bol and Merry Christmas

 

[indiana]

A2Q.......good luck with your action today...........you and your family have a great holiday...........indy

 

[Addicted2quack]

Same to u Indy! Thank u very much

 

[Addicted2quack]

Crazy game, good one tho... Tough loss for byu... I really thought they had it at the end..what a melee at the end

 

[Addicted2quack]

Marshall vs NIU...

I personally dont don't like this game at all and might not even play it... The only thing I would consider is the over at 68... I don't think niu is fast enough to hang with the speed and tempo that Marshall possesses, but I also think Marshall is God awful defensively... 68 points is a lot but I think this will go over. Both teams have bruising running back and mobile QBs so expect a lot of the run game. I think Marshall wins but not sure they win by 10

my play is the over 68.
my pick ATS is Marshall -10 but I probably won't play it, just a hunch.


navy vs San diego state -

san Diego state has a RB with 1600+ yards and all navy does is run it out of the option. Navy played the better schedule but never had a key win. Sdsu beat Air Force and New Mexico, both triple option teams... I think navy has the best playmaker in am qb Keenan Reynolds and he will be able to keep this thing close. Sdsu has a very good defense and will stop the option a lot but I don't think their offense is good enough to run away from anybody... I like navy to stay within the number and I kind of like the over as well... Here's why... Navy struggles to keep people from scoring giving up quite a few points in a lot of their games. Sdsu has scored 29+ in their last four games and navy can surprisingly hang in these types of shootouts even as an option team.... This is just a hunch! Not a play!

my pick, navy+3

bol everyone

 

[Addicted2quack]

Ao far 5-2 on my plays for the bowl games.... Here we go

fresno state vs rice....

How this game total is at 59.5 is beyond me... Fresno state can score and rice can too... They both give up 30+ a game????....Bowl game are notorious for offensive explosions in my opinion. Fresno state can hang with boise as shown twice... Fresno also had 3 defensive players suspended this game including two back up Mlbs and a startig defensive end. That won't help the cause. My main play here is on the over with a lean to Fresno state

My pick: over 59.5
lean : Fresno state +2.5

central Michigan vs western kentucky :

plain and simple western kentucky has a legit offense. Don't let the hype of central michigans defense drive you off western kentucky. They are an average Mac team which is a bad conference with not a lot of offense this year, and none anywhere near the likes of western kentucky. The total here is high at 68 right now and seems to be going up becaus weatern Kentucky can score a ton and doesn't play defense.... But I don't like the over at all because I couldn't see myself trusting CMU to score 24+ points... It might happen but I see western Kentucky winning 35-24.

my pick: western kentucky -4
Very light lean: under 68

 

[thecruncher]

Good job so far, Quack. I wouldn't say that Fresno "hung" with Boise in their second match-up. Boise was up 28-0 in the 2nd half and shut it down super early. Fresno got a couple of touchdowns after that, one of which came on a drive where they converted a 4th and very long, if I recall. I do recall being pissed that Boise didn't cover the -17 play I had on them after the line got as high as -23 and -24. Fresno does not have a very good offense -- or defense, for that matter. I was not surprised to see the line swing all the way over to Rice being favored, as that jived with my line. That being said, Fresno has played a tougher schedule in a tougher conference and has been competitive against better teams than Rice has. Rice plays a very slow run-heavy offense, they've typically been an Under type team. Seems like a tough one to call.

BOL!

 

[Addicted2quack]

6-2 on my picks/plays so far


cruncher great input. Never really looked at the rice fresno game from the standpoint of rices offense... I just know I like Fresno state because they played better compettion and faired well. I think both defenses give up points and the linemakers are usually spot on this time of year. I just think the offenses in this game will Fire up.... It's hard to fix bad defenses this time of year, even with 3 weeks to prepare... Can't change personnel lol... Usually the defensive trends hold and the offensives have the advantage.... At least in my opinion... BOL crunch and happy holidays

 

[DChosta]

Yikes, WKU with the biggest bad beat of 2014. I'm still in absolutely disbelief at what I just witnessed.

 

[Addicted2quack]

Yeah unreal lol! I didn't have any money on the game because I forgot to bet lol... I've had a horrible week, been in a bad rut lately.... Got lucky I missed the kickoff and didn't playb wku.... It's been the best break I've got in a week lol!!

 

[thecruncher]

After looking at the Fresno/Rice game in more depth I don't see any value on the Under any more -- if anything, the Over. I still think either team could win the game, but hey, that's what the small spread indicates, I guess.

 

[Addicted2quack]

After looking at the Fresno/Rice game in more depth I don't see any value on the Under any more -- if anything, the Over. I still think either team could win the game, but hey, that's what the small spread indicates, I guess.

My local has the line dropping but ill be playing the over... I won't play a side at all... I've got a 12 team parlay on bovada that I took fresno +2 so ill be hoping they win lol... The payout would be 21 k... I'm 2 teams down and need 10 more... Fresno hitting would leave me with 9 to go

 

[thecruncher]

Lol, do you start hedging at about 8 wins in?

 

[Addicted2quack]

Nope ! Bovada gave me 10$ free for their bowl game promotion lol.... So I figured let the whole thing ride on their biggest parlay possible.... Come on fresno lol

 

[Addicted2quack]

Rice/fresno over 58
100$


Fresno state pick'em
50$

Heres my plays

 

[Addicted2quack]

6-4 on my bow plays and picks...

im shutting down the betting for a while until i can rebuild my bankroll. i'm in a tough place right now with my fiance and i moving our family to paducah kentucky, using most of my bankroll for the deopist and rent of the new apartment and then losing the rest to my local. the last two weeks ive been crushed in college bball and football. not a good week for me overall. I;ll be making picks, but no money will be wagered at all until i can repay my debt, find new work and rebuild a bankroll...probably a month away at least. sucks but its life. i wish you all the best and tread lightly if you choose to follow my plays since ive been rather cold lately. Typically, whenever i make picks without a wager attached to them i do well, as soon as i put money on games i tend to lose a lot more frequently, ive always been a very unlucky person lol. Bol guys!!! i hope you all do better than me

 

[DChosta]

Best of luck in your future travels quack. Good to see you've got the right mindset about all this gambling stuff and know what are the important priorities going forward. Hope everything works out for you sooner than later and interested to hear your thoughts on the rest of the bowl games when you have time.

 

[DC.]

good luck with the move quack (

 

[Addicted2quack]

thanks gentleman, really do appreciate your kind words in these tougher times. not exactly the worst lol, but still tough...here are my outlooks on the heavy card today.


va tech vs cincy Military Bowl:

cincy is the much hotter team right now but only because they play in a lesser conference and their schedule concluded with smu, s. florida, tulane, e. carolina, uconn, temple, and houston in that order.....my point is, dont look to deep into their 7 game win streak. most of those offensives are tragic, and cincys defenseive stats were inflated during that 7 game win streak. they struggled a little against e. carolina and could have easily lost both games against temple and houston who are both good defensive teams. Now they are a favorite against a good defensive team from a better conference who played a much better SOS.

va tech and cincy both played ohio state and we all know va tech won that game, but im not putting to much weight of that gane into this scenario. va tech has faced some incredibly tough defenses from miami, wake forest, virginia, ohio state, pitt and boston college. whether you like it or not those defenses are good. cincy does not possess a good defense, although theyve improved its been against weaker competition. i think the line is currently cincy -2.....

my pick: va tech +2 and the under.
*cincy may score once or twice but i think va tech will control the ball and clock limiting the opportunities of cincy, look for an ugly game.


duke vs ASU El paso bowl:

duke didnt play an awful schedule but it was no where near as tough as ASU's. at one point ASu won five games in a row against USC, stanford, washington, utah, and notre dame....thats pretty damn impressive. they also lost to oregon state, ucla and arizona....3 tough losses and the OSu loss was awful. duke has been up and down all year and their only good win was georgia tech. this isnt the same duke team that we saw go toe to toe with johnny football in a shootout, but they do play decent football and have some weapons, especially jamison crowder.

the line currently sits at ASU -7.5 from what i see, and because of that i think there is more value in duke than ASU, but not enough to warrant a play of considerable size. the total is at 66 now too according to scores and odds and i really like the over here. lots of playmakers on the field for both teams. ASU blitzes a ton, and when a team does that its usually because they arent good at defending the pass. todd graham is notorius for bringing pressure from anywhere and everywhere but that leaves them exposed a lot and duke is famous for dinking and dunking with their TE's who should eat those blitzes up. on the other end, jalen strong is one of the best WR's in the nation that didnt get enough attention this year, primarily because taylor kelly doesnt have the arm to consistently drive the football down field to him. but kelly is very mobile and DJ foster is the best pass catching Rb in the nation in my opinion, and probably the best mismatch on their offense as they use him in screens, draws, simple handoffs, read options, and of course slot WR routes. hes simply to quick for most defensive players.

my picks: Over 66, ASU -7.5 (if you're betting online, buy the hook to be safe)


miami vs S. carolina independence bowl:

this game is in shreveport, LA which is a terrible field and stadium in a Rough neighborhood lol....perfect for MIAMI LOLOLOL...in all seriousness, this game is so unpredictable because both teams are all over the map with their play. Miami has the much better defense but if and when it decides to show up is a complete question mark....weather is calling for severe thunderstorms and rain all day. no sense in rambling on here.

My pick: Miami -3 not confident tho....and the Under of 62.


boston college vs penn state pinstripe bowl:

weather appears to be fine, which sucks because i wish it was raining or snowing for this boring game to be a little more interesting somehow. BC is the better team but penn state has the better D, by a long shot too, which is amazing to say considering BC has a quality defense. only problem is, penn state cant protect "hackensack'....and hes not good to begin with....i guess BC would be the side play but im so lost on who wins this game its not even funny. the best play is the under and everyone knows it, which means naturally it will be a 35-34 shooutout lol.

My pick: under 40.5 *gun to my head BC -3


nebraska vs USC holiday bowl:

USC is the better team, thats why the line has moved to -7, as it should... but nebraska can be dangerous when they want too. good weather for this game, and nebraska struggles defensively. USC struggles defensively against the option attack and mobile qbs. the play here simply put is the over. i think kessler torches the nebraska defense and likewise, abdullah, bell and armstrong all have their way against USC in what looks to me like a 45-41 game. points will be a preimuim here, defense should be optional. be careful taking USC at anything past -7 here......Sarkisian is famous for taking his foot off the accelerator way to early, and it always comes back to bite him usually resulting in blowing a 20+ point lead to win by 3-7....

my pick : over 63, USC -7 ( if it gets to 7.5, take nebraska)


Bol guys, remember, ive got no money on these games because im in the hole and paying off my debt, but i wish i did because these are some of the better games to bet on in my opinion. take care and happy holidays, hope you all win so much you can give me 500% lol!!!