Pulse System - MLB '09

[NumberFreak]

Some of you have said this is easier to keep track of in one thread because you can subscribe or whatever to get email notifications, so I'll try to keep it all here from now on. I hate when threads get too long but we'll see how it goes.

From the last post, we currently sit at 18-1 (95%) on the year. I started this in July of last season and went 59-27 (69%) in Game 1's. Game 2's (following a loss only) went 19-8 (70%) but, as mentioned last post, those will only be tracked for future reference. Colorado was one of those plays tonight and lost so 19-9 now overall. I'll need to see a lot more than 28 games to decide if those are worthy to risk money on. I still believe this system is in its purest form at the start of a new series before the teams have settled in. Strike quick while the iron is hot, so to speak (or, in this case, strike before our opponent gets adjusted to the surroundings).

For those who do not know, this system looks to fade teams that are slumping more than usual for them. Our team must also be playing decently and already expected to win (favored by -125 or more). I discover these situations by using performance-based game stats to compare a team's recent stretch of games to their seasonal average. It's all crunched down to a number which I call that team's "pulse". With the odds for a game usually based on public perception of each team, the harder you work than the public to uncover the truth about each game, the more success you will have. You get out what you put in. That's what this "pulse system" is all about.

I have a short history using this. Like I said, I started late last baseball season and then did hockey last winter. I'm still tweeking things as I go. Here are the early returns:

2008 Baseball: 59-27 (69%) +18.12
08/09 Hockey: 38-19 (67%) +8.94
2009 Baseball: 18-1 (95%) +16.73 (currently)

Total: 115-47 (71%) +43.79

All unit totals are based on single-unit wagers using straight chalk lines. There is no limit to the maximum odds. The average line so far in this year's baseball is -150.


MAJOR CHANGE

I believe this baseball season will be better than last year's baseball AND hockey (although it won't continue to hit 95%). The reason for this is because I used year-to-date stats in those two seasons. This year I am using a rolling month; 31 days to be exact. There's little point to handicap based on how a team was performing two months ago. You want a happy medium between RELEVANT data and ENOUGH data.

Case in point, hockey started out 14-0 nearly two months into the season and proceeded to go 24-19 the rest of the way. By the end of the season it was losing more than it was winning. It got progressively worse and I think the reason for that was stale data. It just makes logical sense to keep the data as current as possible.

I just tested the new 31-day format this week and the results would have been the same last weekend (5-1) but it would have added a loss on Friday and eliminated the 16-6 Rockies loss on Monday. I'm ready to go forward with it this weekend. Ironically, that 16-6 loss (our only loss so far) was very uncharacteristic in that with our 18-0 start we were only allowing a stellar 2.06 runs per game compared to scoring 6.67! That bad loss jumped our allowed runs to 2.79 but it wouldn't have been if I had implemented this new format sooner. Here's our first 19 games of the 2009 season:

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 257pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=342 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" span=2 width=64><COL style="WIDTH: 25pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1206" span=2 width=33><COL style="WIDTH: 41pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1974" width=54><COL style="WIDTH: 35pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 1718" span=2 width=47><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64 height=17>date</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=64>team</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=33>w/l</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=33>h/a</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 41pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=54>us</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=47>them</TD><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; WIDTH: 35pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=47>line</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'4/27">4/27</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">nym</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>7</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.45</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/1">5/1</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">tor</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>8</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2.24</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/4">5/4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">kc</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.75</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/6">5/6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">atl</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">a</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>8</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.43</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/6">5/6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">kc</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>9</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.27</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/11">5/11</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">cle</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>9</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.35</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/12">5/12</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">tor</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.28</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/12">5/12</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">tex</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>7</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.39</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/12">5/12</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">chc</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.28</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/15">5/15</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">atl</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.86</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/18">5/18</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">tb</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>13</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.28</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/19">5/19</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">nyy</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>9</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2.71</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/19">5/19</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">phi</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">a</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.36</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/22">5/22</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">sd</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.38</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/22">5/22</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">det</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>4</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>3</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.35</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/22">5/22</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">stl</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>5</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>0</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.26</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/22">5/22</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">sea</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>2</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.31</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/25">5/25</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">det</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">w</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">a</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>13</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.23</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl26 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" height=17 x:str="'5/25">5/25</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">col</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">l</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent">h</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>6</TD><TD class=xl25 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>16</TD><TD class=xl27 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-TOP: #e0dfe3; BORDER-LEFT: #e0dfe3; BORDER-BOTTOM: #e0dfe3; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" x:num>1.27</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


I guess that's enough blabbering for now. There are 3 new series on Thursday and the remaining 12 on Friday. I'll have the new plays by then. Feel free to fire away with questions, comments or suggestions.

Onward, upward and good fortune to all.

 

[MackDonald]

Very nicely presented (Mr. Numbers man); I for one, will follow your "system" based on that alone (one of the perks that goes with the Rx Forum).

Good luck.

 

[cruisin]

Maybe you could start a new thread at the beginning of each month so they don't get too long. Just a thought. Thx for the update and dilligence.:toast:

 

[SSI]

nice work

continued success

The Falcon
(SSI)

 

[Noodles]

Thanx Man, Looking forward to your posts !~~~!

 

[serif]

Good stuff yo...

Yeah I remember that slide in the NHL

My opinion is that seems like your system works well with MLB because of the streaks. You can pound on a slumping team if your other parameters add up too.

In MLB losing streaks are a motherf*****
easy money

NHL is kinda tougher but like you said it still needs work

Its cool man - its good to see you back around and take your time - quality over quantity

Also good looking out on the humble game and not touting

 

[NumberFreak]

Good stuff yo...

Yeah I remember that slide in the NHL

My opinion is that seems like your system works well with MLB because of the streaks. You can pound on a slumping team if your other parameters add up too.

In MLB losing streaks are a motherf*****
easy money

NHL is kinda tougher but like you said it still needs work

Its cool man - its good to see you back around and take your time - quality over quantity

Also good looking out on the humble game and not touting

I think MLB is easier too. There's less emphasis put on each game of a 162-game schedule by the slumping team and not as much time between games to correct their problems. Either way, if one uses proper money management, 67-69% is plenty to profit with on an average line of -150 or so. I have a feeling this will easily top 70% though, because that 69% last baseball season was from July through September and missed the early dominance this thing has had in both sports. Plus, hopefully the fresher data will even further improvements. Time will tell. I'm going to track the old way and new way just in case the improvement is actually a detriment. I can only see it helping though.

 

[geeze]

It's great to see your original thinking.

Thank you for sharing with us. It is greatly appreciated.

My only problem is your cryptic avatar is mesmerizing.

 

[geeze]

8 1 6
3 5 7
4 9 2

 

[CharlieBX]

Very interested in this adjustment, makes sense definitely. Looking forward to see if you have anything for the new series on Thursday/Friday. Good luck!

 

[meaculpa]

My apologies if you have answered it already somewhere but: you seem only to play ML's, have you checked how the system would've done taking RL's instead?

Good luck with this

 

[NumberFreak]

My apologies if you have answered it already somewhere but: you seem only to play ML's, have you checked how the system would've done taking RL's instead?

Good luck with this

That's a good question and something to think about. At 14-5 vs the RL, I would say it has probably done real well. 14-1-4 @ -1, too.

 

[ShootMe]

Sounds intresting enough, GL

 

[Club]

Do you recommend entering into a system that is currently sitting at 18-1, 95%? Shouldn't we expect some reversion to the mean before jumping in?

 

[meaculpa]

Do you recommend entering into a system that is currently sitting at 18-1, 95%? Shouldn't we expect some reversion to the mean before jumping in?

No, we shouldn't. That is, unless you are expecting it to keep on hitting at 95%. Looking at previous data in the first post we expect to end up around 70%. On the way getting there though there is no saying what will happen with regards to cold or hot streaks, after all, all picks are completely seperate and do not influence each others outcome in the slightest.

Just think of flipping a coin, after 18 straight tails with a fair coin the 19th throw still has a 50% chance to land heads, the 18 tails previously don't matter for that chance in the slightest since all throws are completely independant. After loads and loads of more coin-throws the result will be approxamentally 50%. This is not due to the fact that it began with 18 tails and thus came up with slightly more heads afterwards, but simply because the sample is bigger and should after an infinity amount of throws be 50%.

If we suppose this system will hit 70%, then the next pick will have a chance of succes of 70%, no better and no worse, the previous results do not have any influence.

 

[BoutMyMoney]

will there be a play tonight?

 

[parlayallday]

ya whats on the ticket?

 

[NumberFreak]

The truth of the matter is the back history is too small and there have been some assumed improvements made from last year, to confidently say what the true win expectancy is. Based on the limited track record, I think it will be 70-75% by season's end, and possibly even high 70's. If that happens, this system will still be profitable going forward. If it ends 68-69%, there won't be much profit, and if it hits mid-60's or lower (highly doubtful), there would be some loss going forward.

This is all assuming around 80 plays total.


No plays for Thursday. Arizona would have been but not a strong-enough favorite. See you tomorrow.

 

[Club]

No, we shouldn't. That is, unless you are expecting it to keep on hitting at 95%. Looking at previous data in the first post we expect to end up around 70%. On the way getting there though there is no saying what will happen with regards to cold or hot streaks, after all, all picks are completely seperate and do not influence each others outcome in the slightest.

Just think of flipping a coin, after 18 straight tails with a fair coin the 19th throw still has a 50% chance to land heads, the 18 tails previously don't matter for that chance in the slightest since all throws are completely independant. After loads and loads of more coin-throws the result will be approxamentally 50%. This is not due to the fact that it began with 18 tails and thus came up with slightly more heads afterwards, but simply because the sample is bigger and should after an infinity amount of throws be 50%.

If we suppose this system will hit 70%, then the next pick will have a chance of succes of 70%, no better and no worse, the previous results do not have any influence.

I'm not sure I understand your answer. If you expect to hit at 70%, just to use as an example, and it's at 95% after 19 picks, then you should expect some reversion to the mean, the mean being 70%. The question, of course, which no one can predict, is when and how. I understand your second paragraph, which is fundamental probability and statistics. But my understanding is that if you are at 95% through x games and expect to be at 70% at the end, you can expect to have an approximate stretch of 45% for x games. But again, if we knew when and how that occurs, we'd all be rich.

I'm not trying to be critical. I believe in number's system. But I know you guys know probability and statistics better than I do so I ask the question. Maybe it's not worth discussing.

 

[geeze]

Numbers,

In your avatar, an interesting arrangement of your numbers 1 through 9 can be made with one common property of any lined up three numbers. (See post #9.)

Thank you for devoting your time and ability to helping us with your unique pulse analysis.

Best of good luck to you.