Puck line question

[kentate]

My wife has noticed that recently there have been two 4.5 puck lines in the NHL. Does anyone have any stats about how many times these lines go over or under? Today the Stars games is 4.5 -112 Over at Canbet.

GLTA

Ken Tate
Professional Sports Analyst

 

L4Y: 58 overs, 56 unders.

bb

 

[GottaWinToday]

I have a question on this wager........

What is the better bet. My guru's pick was Dallas/New Jersey UNDER 4 1/2 (+108)....

I found this info:

Dallas/New Jersey UNDER 4 1/2 (+108) Pinnacle
and
Dallas/New Jersey UNDER 5 (-160) Olympic

What do you think is the better bet. I went with the guru because he knows more, what's your take?


GottaWinToday

 

under no circumstances would you lay even -40 cents on a total, never mind -60 !!

question would have been better if you had the option of under 5.0-30. THEN, since it would take 6 goals to beat you, and a case could be made to lay -30.

a wiseguy i know asked if betting the over 4.5-20 was better than the over 5.0+30 that he had the option on - i suggested he bet both. but the over 4.5-20 was pretty strong.

regardless, the under 4.5+$ would have been the better play. in fact ANYONE advising you to lay -60 you can pass on they should find another business.

bb

 

[kentate]

Bobby, Thanks a ton for your advice. You seem to know your shit.

Ken Tate
Professional Sports Analyst

 

Bobby, I don't really understand when you say to never lay -160. Let me get this straight. IF a line is 5 un -140, and you find a book that is hanging a 5.5 un -160. Are you telling me that you wouldn't play this game because you are laying -160?

Thanks

 

and do NOT know any wise-guy hockey bettors (and i know many) who do either. if a price is that far off and ive no other options - i just pass.

now if YOU want to lay -60 and try to justify it by the price being off, go for it. dont forget that just because a line is off is NO guarantee that it will get there.

bb

 

[basesAREloaded]

I have to scratch my head to lay -101/higher on anything.

Unless I'm gettin' p /infopop/emoticons/icon_razz.gifints.

 

im not certain because dont pretend to be expert on bases or baskets, but i think if you constantly look for even or better it is terrific in long run. a HUGE bettor i know is killing the nfl whenever he can find the line even or +$ this year. for instance +2.5+10, etc. and i still feel its okay to lay up to minus 20 occasionally in the pucks and beleive me i get blasted every time by guys who bet more and have been in business long time.

bb

 

The only time I lay anything more then a dime is a playoff total. I am willing to go 5 un -120 or 4.5 ov -120 and thats it. Laying anymore then 120 is never a option for me, Much rather keep my $$ in my pocket

 

[basesAREloaded]

/infopop/emoticons/icon_wink.gif

 

I swear, you guys are all nuts!!! Just because a game is laying -60 or more, you don't play it.

So let me get this straight.. If a line is 4.5 under -120, and you have a book offering you 5.5-160, you wouldn't bet it? So buying a full puck for only 40 cents would NOT be worth it for you boys just because you're laying 60 cents?. I can't believe I'm hearing this.

So if Dallas on the ML is DAL -270, and you found a book that has DAL -160, you guys won't bet it? Please don't say NO, or I am quitting the hockey forum for good. /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

In this business, it's all about value boys, not what you lay.

 

we wont lay the -60. curious how you can say "its about value - not what you lay". think they are related. if YOU think laying -60 represents value, go for it. funny how you forget that it isnt an automatic winner. two years ago i was getting great prices left and right, games that were 20 cents and more off of my numbers and i still got buried.

bb

 

[ScoobySnacks+]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> So if Dallas on the ML is DAL -270, and you found a book that has DAL -160, you guys won't bet it? Please don't say NO, or I am quitting the hockey forum for good. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I would take the -.5 from the book laying the -160 on the ML /infopop/emoticons/icon_biggrin.gif

-160 is way to steep, although I have sinned and layed -145 this year, luckily it never bit me in the ass /infopop/emoticons/icon_smile.gif

Funny thing, I feel more upset losing a -120 wager then a +100 wager, not for the 20 cents but I feel like an idiot, or I fell for something...thats just me though.

GL

 

[~Falco~]

Thank all of you that posted here for the education.