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Tigers need win tonight
At-large bid to Big Dance at stake
By Gary Parrish
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December 23, 2004
There is no such thing as a must-win game in December.
John Calipari has explained this theory many times. He believes in it as strongly as a child does Santa.
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But perhaps, just for tonight, the University of Memphis coach should reconsider. Because here's the hard reality surrounding the Tigers' 8 p.m. game against Providence at FedExForum:
Memphis enters with a 6-5 record. So a loss would obviously give the Tigers their sixth nonconference loss.
Now guess how many schools earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament last season with six nonconference losses?
One.
Michigan State.
That's it.
Thus if Memphis wants to make the Big Dance for the third straight season, the margin of error is slim. So to borrow and adjust a line from "The Shawshank Redemption," the Tigers had better get busy winning or get busy printing another NIT banner.
"We've just got to ride this thing out," Calipari said. "We've got to get this thing going."
And the sooner, the better, especially considering the Tigers will be heavy underdogs when they close their nonconference schedule at 15th-ranked Texas on Jan. 6. That means another home loss to either Providence (5-4) tonight or East Tennessee State (4-6) on Dec. 30 would be devastating to the UofM's postseason hopes.
Why?
Because though Michigan State did earn a seven-seed in the NCAA Tournament last March with six nonleague defeats, it took a 12-4 mark in the Big Ten to make that possible. It's also worth noting that the Spartans' six nonleague losses all came away from home and to the likes of Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, Syracuse, Oklahoma and UCLA.
Notice the lack of a Louisiana Tech or Ole Miss, two bottom-tier programs within their respective leagues that already beat Memphis inside FedExForum this month.
"We've just got to get five guys who want to play," said UofM senior Duane Erwin, who has averaged 8.5 points, nine rebounds and four blocks in his past two outings. "We've just got to get everybody going at one time. We've got to get guys striving on defense, and we've got to grind it out on offense because we're going to be a grind-it-out team."
At this point, it certainly appears that way.
Though some love to talk about defense and Memphis's problems there, the real issue of late has been on the offensive end. The Tigers have scored less than 30 points in the first half of the past six games and are averaging just 57.5 points in their past four contests while shooting only 34.9 percent.
Last season, Memphis averaged 72.4 points per game and shot 42.0 percent from the field. The one noticeable difference from then to now is the lack of Antonio Burks, the Tigers' old point guard and Conference USA Player of the Year.
"I told all you guys we were going to miss him," Calipari said. "You watched him. You know how good he was."
But now Burks is gone, off to the NBA's Grizzlies. So the Tigers must make the offense work without him, and any grace period to learn how is quickly expiring.
"We've just got to figure out how to play better offensively," Calipari acknowledged. "We've got to figure out how to be more specific in what we do. We're still not making shots we need to make. We've got to figure out how to get guys to make shots they should make, avoid simple turnovers, execute better and set screens where they're supposed to be set.
"We've just got to figure it out."
-- Gary Parrish: 529-2365
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