I agree. But he is proposing a bit more of a think tank. More on a consensus that leads to the right side based on agreement of the group. That as opposed to basically fade the public which is what you are talking about. He is proposing "similar-level cappers" presumably what he considers to be relatively good ones. But who decide what that means and on what criteria?
I agree. But he is proposing a bit more of a think tank. More on a consensus that leads to the right side based on agreement of the group. That as opposed to basically fade the public which is what you are talking about. He is proposing "similar-level cappers" presumably what he considers to be relatively good ones. But who decide what that means and on what criteria?
ok, yeah that won't work.
You can get the "Best" 5 handicappers on the RX and they probably won't agree on the same plays
the problem is there are a lot of good cappers here that don't even post. Well maybe they aren't good cappers, I'm not 100% sure
But when we ( Wil, Myself and Hache ) would deal with Sportsbook disputes I was Shocked to find a couple of 6 figure disputes from guys that have been members here for a long but either don't post at all anymore, or post very little.
So the joke arounds forums is that most are $10-$25 bettors and there's nobody really Sharp. Untrue, they just don't post, but still hang out and read or view the forums.
I have been interested in this question for quite some time. I focus mainly on college football and basketball. I have spent many hours analyzing a prediction tracking website, newsletters, consensus polling questions here (thanks Betallsports!), and selected posters here and tried to see whether the knowledgeable of crowds and 'experts' provides any edge. My thought going in to this was that the taking the consensus from these three independent data streams would provide additional useful information to help me with handicapping. Taking the straight results from my limited studies, I have found that there is little advantage to any one of these streams in NCAAF (~51.8%). When combined, the success rate rose slightly, but not enough to make a difference (~53.2%). NCAABB is a bit better 52.7% and 55.4%.
If I was to venture a guess, I would say that most of the problems with prediction arise because the algorithms and opinions are largely mathematical/statistical models that rely upon past performances to predict future events. There are not enough football basketball games played to have a large enough sampling size to be effective. An additional problem is that everyone is using the same sets of data for analysis. I want to know who is tracking non-traditional data like weights of offensive vs. defense line, etc. Also, the mindset of these kids - who got laid last night, etc. The unknowns that likely make the biggest differences in performance.
Where I have found an edge is reading thoughtful analysis from someone who knows the conference and the teams. Weighting these experts, you can sometimes get upwards of 65% many weeks. These people are few and far between and sometimes need to watch people in the tracker forum to see which conferences they bet. That said, I would love to have another data stream, similar to the "one best bet of the week" that pops up every so often.
If I was to venture a guess, I would say that most of the problems with prediction arise because the algorithms and opinions are largely mathematical/statistical models that rely upon past performances to predict future events. There are not enough football basketball games played to have a large enough sampling size to be effective. An additional problem is that everyone is using the same sets of data for analysis. I want to know who is tracking non-traditional data like weights of offensive vs. defense line, etc. Also, the mindset of these kids - who got laid last night, etc. The unknowns that likely make the biggest differences in performance.
Where I have found an edge is reading thoughtful analysis from someone who knows the conference and the teams. Weighting these experts, you can sometimes get upwards of 65% many weeks. These people are few and far between and sometimes need to watch people in the tracker forum to see which conferences they bet. That said, I would love to have another data stream, similar to the "one best bet of the week" that pops up every so often.
I thought this was done a couple years back, maybe for college football? A lot of posters gave their best bet of the week, then someone added them up and put the top 2 or 3 picks at the end of the thread. Maybe I'm dreaming that up...
Would be interesting to do and see how well or possibly how bad this would work.
Would be interesting to do and see how well or possibly how bad this would work.
I would love to do a better Tracker section, a combined version of SBR and covers. I know thats in a perfect world,,, and SBR doesnt exactly want the RX to become the "greater" of the 2 in the way of a digital footprint. sooooooo kindof hard to give a recomendation when (like the last 10 years), we were asked by ownership, hey what good ideas do yall have? we want to hear them,, then nothing happens,,
any suggestion i make will become that same scenerio until I can know what basic direction SBR is pushing the RX.
The only thing I know in comparison is it seems that SBR is Significantly larger, in people as well as technology so were does that leave the rx? were a posting site that has "made it" in spite of ourselves. lol,,,
So betall, in the vagueist of explinations (as its obvious you/SBR want to keep things quiet) if you would be so kind as to kindof point me in the direction of where this site is going I would LOVE to have some input that gets implemented and not just have it be Lip servce like the other 30 times,
cheers
You bring up a great point. We used the closing line. It is interesting to note that with NCAAF, the closing line - or more properly line movement - made a much larger difference in ATS win/loss. I don’t have the numbers on me, but somewhere around only 30% of the line movement in ncaabb altered the ATS win/loss. It has been one of the more striking findings.
Yeah, definitely. That's the biggest indicator of if there is value or isn't.
The consensus has to be reached fast before the line moves. Because if the 7 best CFB bros on this forum see a mistake on the line, well they're probably not the only 7 people on the planet that see it. So most of this has to be done early in the week. Before the train leaves the station so to speak.
