Prop Play For Thursday Night Game ..... With A Minnesota Connection

[NorthernStar]

Tampa Bay’s defense is strong versus the run and weak against the pass. The Rams through the ball at will and I don’t see the Chiefs doing anything different.

So, I looked at Hill over 5.5 to 6.5, Kelce over 6.5 and Edwards-Helaire over 2.5. Any of them would be good choices based on the last game. I am going to assume Tampa Bay makes some changes to try to improve their pass defense. Which leads me to taking Edwards-Helaire over 2.5 minus 150.

The reason is I like the lower number in case the game doesn’t play out exactly like I think and also if someone gets injured getting to the higher number becomes more difficult.
The other reason is what other running backs have done against the Tampa Bay defense. Last game Rams running backs did not do much, but their wide receivers torched them. Going back from there.

Carolina: Davis 5 targets 4 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 6 targets 5 receptions
Giants: Gallman 1 target 1 reception (3 receivers had 5 catches)
Raiders: Jacobs 4 targets 3 receptions
Green Bay: Adams 5 targets 3 receptions
Chicago: Montgomery 8 targets 7 receptions
Chargers: Kelley 3 targets 3 receptions
Denver: Gordon 6 targets 4 receptions
Carolina: Davis 8 targets 8 receptions
New Orleans: Kamara 8 targets 5 receptions

There are some pretty good backs in this group, but I think Clyde can hold his own and get 3 receptions.

As Always Good Luck

Northern Star

 

[varkeyboy]

Clyde OVER it is!

 

[Cheddar]

WTF, I’ll play

 

[NorthernStar]

Over and Under on completions for Mahomes was 27.5. First half he has 25 and not one to Clyde :think2:

The game is playing like I thought. Hill over in first half and Kelce is one catch away. Maybe with the lead we will see some dump offs in the second half.

 

[IMISREMEMBER]

Unfortunately I followed, Patrick doesn’t even look at 25, he’s down field all the time.

 

[olDirtyChinyRestaurant]

Anything on the late game?

 

[NorthernStar]

I hate losing and the Kansas City game went just like I thought in terms of Kansas City passing against Tampa Bay. Mahomes completed way over the posted total for completions. Only one problem he was throwing bombs to Hill and no check downs to Clyde.

I won last night but didn’t want someone to follow and count on the Trubinsky and the Bears offense to take you to the window.


Tonight, the choice is fairly easy. Seattle gives up the most completions in the NFL. I have to go to a Philadelphia player to go over the total. That part was easy. Then you see that Philadelphia doesn’t have a receiver in the top 50 in the NFL.


The top two receiver at the end of the game against Seattle had the following number of catches


Arizona Fitzgerald 8, Hopkins 5
Rams Reynolds 8, Woods 5
Buffalo Diggs 9, Davis 4
San Fran Aiyuk 8, Bourne 8
Arizona Hopkins 10, Fitzgerald 8
Minnesota Thielen ,9 Jefferson 3
Miami Parker 10, Ford 4


You get the idea. I don't even have to pick the top receiver in the game to win this. Greg Ward has caught at least 3 passes in 8 of 10 games. He seems extremely consistent and leads the team in receptions and averages 4 receptions a game. Based on his season numbers and Seattle giving up passes, he doesn’t even have to be the top receiver of the night to get to 3 catches.


I am going with Greg Ward over 2.5 minus 150.


As Always Good Luck


Northern Star

 

[jonchan312]

Good luck to you, Northern Star.