Presidential parlay (parlaying individual states)

[JohnnyB]

If a book offers individual state betting, it seems like playing a parlay would be a good bet and provide better value than betting a candidate (particularly Obama, who at -600+ seems to have little value left).

Here's a 10 team parlay I'm looking at:

Maine: Dem -2500
Delaware: Dem -5000
New Jersey: Dem -2500
Texas: Rep -2000
Minnesota: Dem -1000
Iowa: Dem -1250
New Hampshire: Dem -625
Pennsylvania: Dem -1250
Wisconsin: Dem -1250
Washington: Dem -3333
TOTAL: -109

Can't see any of these losing and I think there's a lot more value here at -109 than Taking Obama straight up at -600 or worse.

Could also just go with the Northeast to go Dem (plus Texas to go Rep) with:

Maine: Dem -2500
Delaware: Dem -5000
New Jersey: Dem -2500
Texas: Rep -2000
New Hampshire: Dem-625
Pennsylvania: Dem -1250
New York: Dem -10000
Maryland: Dem -10000
TOTAL: -208


What do you guys think of these?

PS Don't turn this into a political pissing match, this is just to discuss the value of these kind of bets, nothing more, I really don't give a shit about your political opinions.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Some of those stats are tossups & I can't see Obama winning all of them. Can you do round robins? There are just some states he won't lose like NY, NJ to name a couple.

 

[Doug]

what book ?

 

[D2bets]

Yeah, what book is right. What book even has state odds aside from the exchanges where you obviously can't parlay.

 

[fhmesq44]

There is zero chance Obama loses California or Illinois, just add those in.

 

[trytrytry]

no book has that option...very few even have states offered but none for parlays or if wagers...

 

[TTinCO]

Some of those stats are tossups & I can't see Obama winning all of them. Can you do round robins? There are just some states he won't lose like NY, NJ to name a couple.

Considering that the lowest odds are 6.25-1, I'd call that a long ways from being a tossup.

 

[krk1030]

Obama is a lock at -600. This isnt sports, there are locks.

 

[Brock Landers]

Utah and Idaho are 100% guaranteed republican states too, not a single chance Obama can win those, not that they matter in the least, but they are give aways

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Considering that the lowest odds are 6.25-1, I'd call that a long ways from being a tossup.

Regardless of what the polls say, certain states are considered tossups especially on that list. I don't think Obama wins all of them.

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Quite frankly even at -600, Obama is a lock to win this. It would take fraud of massive proportions to screw him out of this win. If you could do 2 team parlays & keep one leg open, you could use Obama winning as the free peg & take some shots.

I looked at an electoral map the other day & even if McCain wins every state considered up for grabs, he still would not have enough & would need to turn a blue state red which I don't think he can do.

 

[HinesWard86]

Coming home effect and Barkley effect people.

Believe me McCain still has a legit shot

 

[JohnnyB]

Sorry, just saw this thread. With the forum screwing up I didn't realize that anyone replied as it says 0 replies and 1 view. Anyhow...

There is zero chance Obama loses California or Illinois, just add those in.

Unfortunately, neither of these are offered. Not every state is offered.

no book has that option...

Not true. I parlayed New York -10000 and Idaho -10000 together risking $1.00 to win $0.02 as a test parlay. If they allowed that I don't know how they couldn't allow other, larger parlays (they allow up to 10 teamers.)

Considering that the lowest odds are 6.25-1, I'd call that a long ways from being a tossup.

The thing is, there's an extremely high hold percentage. For New Hampshire it looks like this:

Dems -625
Reps +350

and some others are ridiculous as well. New York and anything else where one side is -10000 looks like this:

Dems -10000
Reps +1200

Utah and Idaho are 100% guaranteed republican states too, not a single chance Obama can win those, not that they matter in the least, but they are give aways

I'm looking at parlaying any state (that's offered) where one candidate has 60%+ or a strong state that's very close to 60%.

Here are the odds for every state:

Alaska
D -10000
R +1200

Arizona
D +800
R -5000

Colorado
D -625
R +350

Delaware
D -5000
R +1000

Florida
D -303
R +200

Georgia
D +300
R -500

Hawaii
D -10000
R +1200

Idaho
D +1200
R -10000

Indiana
D -120
R -120

Iowa
D -1250
R +550

Kansas
D +1200
R -10000

Kentucky
D +1200
R -10000

Louisiana
D +700
R -2500

Maine
D -2500
R +700

Maryland
D -10000
R +1200

Minnesota
D -1000
R +500

Mississippi
D +700
R -2500

Missouri
D -200
R +150

Montana
D +250
R -400

Nebraska
D +1200
R -10000

Nevada
D -400
R +250

New Hampshire
D -625
R +350

New Jersey
D -2500
R +700

New Mexico
D -714
R +400

New York
D -10000
R +1200

North Carolina
D +162
R -227

North Dakota
D +150
R -200

Ohio
D -278
R +187

Oklahoma
D +1200
R -10000

Oregon
D -5000
R +1000

Pennsylvania
D -1250
R +550

South Carolina
D +900
R -5000

South Dakota
D +500
R -1000

Tennessee
D +750
R -3333

Texas
D +650
R -2000

Virginia
D -455
R +275

Washington
D -3333
R +750

West Virginia
D +100
R -139

Wisconsin
D -1250
R +550

Wyoming
D +1200
R -10000


The following states have 60%+ for one candidate (or are close to 60%) and considered locks according to the latest polls on CNN:

ID: 68% R
WY: 66% R
NE: 60% R
KS: 63% R
OK: 61% R
TX: 57% R
AK: 55% R (Can't see Palin losing this state)
SC: 59% R
HI: 63% D
NY: 58% D (No way New York goes Republican)

 

[txkingpin]

which book are you seeing these available?

 

[BetIt]

Yeah where are they?

I'd like some Ohio at +187

 

[trytrytry]

betus has state by state odds but no parlay and has the wild high vig like those listed above...plus they have trouble paying anyway!

EVERYBODY!! please list any book you know of that has any state by state election odds....thanks!

MN at -1000 is a stealll should be -5000 or more...overlay! Id like to put $1000 on that one and make a free $100.

 

[Cusipz]

Johnny- What book is this?!

NJ -2500 is a gift.

There is absolutely no way it loses. None.

 

[Doug]

Why don't books offer a pointspread on the election ?

Obama - X number of electoral votes -110

 

[Santo]

The UK spread firms are betting on the electoral votes, at the moment the line would be about Obama -140

http://www.sportingindex.com/Sporti...tName=1&IDSBEventType=201&IDSBMeeting=3345274

 

[Doug]

140 votes, WOW !