Premier League Stats: Newcastle United v Liverpool (By Betfair.com)

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Premier League Stats: Newcastle United v Liverpool

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Betfair.com

Bettorlogic take a close look at the two sides involved in today's lunchtime kick-off...

Match Odds

Liverpool rediscovered their home form on Boxing Day with their first league win at Anfield in nearly two months. Their away record (W6-D2-L1) has kept them top while they have struggled at home and now they face a trip to a Newcastle side who sit only two points clear of the relegation zone after their loss at the JJB.

Still, Newcastle's loss at Wigan was only their third in the last three months (13 games) -- the fifth-fewest in the league in that time -- thanks mostly to a six-game unbeaten run (W3-D3-L0) at St James's. From 03/04 to 06/07, the Magpies had one of the better home records against the Big Four (W5-D6-L5) but last season they struggled mightily, being outscored 11-2 and picking up just one point from their four games (albeit against the surprise Big Four leaders at the time, Arsenal).

Also of concern for home fans is the recent interdependency of Newcastle's last result and their performance at home. Since the start of the 06/07 season, Newcastle are W5-D9-L10 at home after a defeat in their previous league match (W1-D1-L2 this season) -- compared to W13-D6-L3 after taking points from their previous game (W3-D2-L0 this term).
Liverpool's recent away form against sides outside the top six is very strong as well, going W14-D4-L3 at such teams since the start of last season (W5-D1-L1 this season) which, along with concerns over Newcastle's home form in these games suggests [1.87] for the away win is a good price to back..

Correct score

The 2-0 win and goalless draw (both 5/28) have been Liverpool's most common away score lines since the start of the last season. Three of the 0-0s came at top-six teams however, with the 2-1 win (3/21) second to the 2-0 (5/21) in that reduced sample.

The 2-2 draw has been the most common score at St. James's in that time, with nothing particularly standing out amongst their games against top-half sides (0-2 the most common defeat at 2/13). It is worth noting that five of their seven defeats this season have been by a 2-1 score, including the last four in a row and both of their losses at home.

There is some agreement between the sides' figures for the 2-0 ([11.0]) and the 2-1 ([9.4]) away win scores but nothing especially firm.

HT/FT

Both of these sides have been much better in the second half than the first this season, with Newcastle going W2-D9-L8 in the first half and Liverpool W5-D12-L2. The D/W (6/19 overall and 3/9 on the road) has been the standout double result for the Reds this season and to a lesser extent for Newcastle (4/19 overall and 3/9 at home).

The L/L (6/19, 2/9 at home) has been the most common overall for Newcastle, with only one of their defeats (and that on the road) coming after a half-time draw or win. Five of their seven home losses to the Big Four over the past four seasons have also been L/L, so that probably has to be the selection in this market at [3.15], despite Liverpool's first-half problems so far in this campaign.

Newcastle clean sheet

In 05/06 and 06/07, Newcastle kept clean sheets in four of their eight games at home to the Big Four but shipped 11 goals in these four games last season (no clean sheets), managing three in 13 games at home to top-half sides since the start of the last campaign.

Liverpool have failed to score in only one of their last 13 on the road -- and three of 21 at teams from outside the top six since the start of last season -- making the home clean sheet unbackable, although unappealing, at [1.21].

Liverpool clean sheet

The Reds have kept 10 clean sheets in those 21 games against teams from outside the top six though and in half of their away games (14/28) since the start of last season overall.

Newcastle have failed to score in just one of their last 13 at home, although that was in the one visit of a Big Four team (Chelsea) in that time. That was one of four clean sheets in their last six at home to the Big Four, so the away clean sheet has some appeal at [2.64].
 

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