Prediction Market: Republicans now favored to win the White House in 2016

[Acebb]

[h=1]2016 Presidential Winning Party[/h]
Republicans 51%

6 months ago Dems were 2:1 favorites.

I would imagine this is going to bounce around a bit over the next year.

 

[GasMan]

Nice source probably some right wing neo nazi conservative mega religious gun zealot rag.

( just beating the libs to the punch)

 

[JudgeWapner]

Bookmaker down to Dems -155 Reps +125. Dropping.

 

[JudgeWapner]

Officially in scalp territory. Think I'll wait.

 

[CHOPTALK]

If the repubs don't win this election it just shows how out of tune they are with the Mainstream.

This should be a slum dunk year and the fact that it's not should be troubling to republicans .

 

[SheriffJoe]

If the repubs don't win this election it just shows how out of tune they are with the Mainstream.

This should be a slum dunk year and the fact that it's not should be troubling to republicans .

False.

 

[PatsFan1283]

A prediction market where $ can't be bet isn't very useful.

A legal intrade type platform would provide a much better idea of candidate/party odds.

 

[SmallDaddy]

Dems already have 252 electoral votes "locked up". And that is not counting Ohio and Florida.

Any Republican should be an underdog till late in the game till its clear that something unexpected is going on

 

[Willie99]

If the repubs don't win this election it just shows how out of tune they are with the Mainstream.

This should be a slum dunk year and the fact that it's not should be troubling to republicans .

mainstream? WTF is mainstream? if there's a mainstream, they win it

what they lose is the poor inner city vote my margins they can't overcome in suburbia

if the suburban vote moves to 60/40, they win. But 55/45 can't overcome 90/10

 

[Willie99]

NYC locks up NY
Phil carries PN
Chicago locks up IL
LA & SF lock up CA
Detroit = MI
while the northeast is more liberal than the rest of the country, it's the inner cities that carry CT, NJ, RI & MA to a lessor extent

that's the stuff that makes democrats relevant in Presidential elections

 

[vitterd]

NYC locks up NY
Phil carries PN
Chicago locks up IL
LA & SF lock up CA
Detroit = MI
while the northeast is more liberal than the rest of the country, it's the inner cities that carry CT, NJ, RI & MA to a lessor extent

that's the stuff that makes democrats relevant in Presidential elections

How many states do repubs win because of redneck, toothless, fuck their cousins, dummies?

 

[Willie99]

OH
PA
VA
FL
WI

Romney won the over 50k vote in all of those states, I'm sure a few more states would have swung

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-exit-polls/table.html

 

[Willie99]

New York City
1,900,000 to 400,000

The Bronx
335,000 to 27,000 (dafinch must have a big family)

Philadelphia
557,000 to 92,000

 

[Willie99]

How many states do repubs win because of redneck, toothless, fuck their cousins, dummies?

Republicans win the over 50k income demographics
Democrats win the under 50k income demographics by dominating margins

democrats control the living in poverty and high school drop out demographics

it just is what it is, it can't be spun

they are who put you in power, deal with it

 

[vitterd]

Republicans win the over 50k income demographics
Democrats win the under 50k income demographics by dominating margins

democrats control the living in poverty and high school drop out demographics

it just is what it is, it can't be spun

they are who put you in power, deal with it

Once again.....if high school dropouts and those considered poverty level did not vote.....Obama is still president for 8 years.


Those with high level education( masters degrees)....Obama wins that demo

 

[Acebb]

In 2012, Obama won the “some high school” vote with 64% (and the HS grad with 51%) and the <$50,000 income with 60% (note in 2008 Obama won the "$15,000 or less" income category with 73%). Those are the biggest margins in the respective categories. It is clear that low income, stupid people, gravitate toward Democrats in solid majorities.

 

[Seymour]

false.

ask not what you can do for your country but what your country can do for you

 

[Willie99]

Once again.....if high school dropouts and those considered poverty level did not vote.....Obama is still president for 8 years.


Those with high level education( masters degrees)....Obama wins that demo

once again, you hate simple math.

he wins in 2008, that election was the one demographic exception in a generation

an unpopular war with rewritten history, and a trumped up credit crisis contributed to that

plus people actually thought Obama was smart

he loses 2012, he loses OH, FL, PA, VA and WI. The link I provided shows he won the taxpaying vote in all those states, it's really 2nd grade math. Stuff like 55% > 45% material

the link only provided demographics for battle ground states, it's entirely plausible even more states swing



what's funny, even you knew your base and predicted high inner city turnout in 2012 would win for obama, now you run from your people

 

[vitterd]

once again, you hate simple math.

he wins in 2008, that election was the one demographic exception in a generation

an unpopular war with rewritten history, and a trumped up credit crisis contributed to that

plus people actually thought Obama was smart

he loses 2012, he loses OH, FL, PA, VA and WI. The link I provided shows he won the taxpaying vote in all those states, it's really 2nd grade math. Stuff like 55% > 45% material

the link only provided demographics for battle ground states, it's entirely plausible even more states swing



what's funny, even you knew your base and predicted high inner city turnout in 2012 would win for obama, now you run from your people

Yes more inner city vote democrat but why are they less of a human being than you? Because they make less money? You speak of inner city people as if their animals. Much of my family lives in south philly.....because they want to.....they like living in the city and would never move from there. Does that mean they are scum inner city? Just because a person chooses to live different than you doesn't make them less than you.

Clearly you don't know what poverty is. Do you even know what income is considered poverty? If you take the people living in actual poverty and make their votes not count.....Obama is still president. It's a pretty simple thing to figure out.

 

[ScottL]

You speak of inner city people as if their animals.

Not to quibble but it's "they're animals." But I digress.....

Are they animals?

Well let me say this:

I used to work for the Phila Rec Dept. It was my Summer job in 1977 and 1978. You had to know somebody high up in the 'D' Party to get those jobs. Likewise my PA Turnpike job Summers of 1979-1981 (and he wonders after inhaling all that Shit why 35 years later his nose bleeds). All connections to D Party or you don't work.

Oops I digress again.... Back to 'The Animals'.
When I worked at the Rec Dept I was in NE Philly. Back then it was a largely safe neighborhood. On the days I goofed though, which was everyday (I worked hard at night as I ran the Men's B-Ball League but I played hoops and went swimming on my day shifts) my supervisor would joke, "I'm going to transfer you to 5th and Diamond.... with The Animals! (LMAO)

The Animals (Part 2)
My Dad was a pharmacist for 45 years. From the late 60s to the late 70s the store he worked was in Kensington.....with 'The Animals.' I worried for him. He was not safe down there. He stood behind a cash register and in front of Quaaludes and Secanol, etc. IN A BAD NEIGHBORHOOD WITH A LOT OF ANIMALS.
When he left that job and moved to a store on County Line Road in Mont County I stopped worrying about him so much. I was away at college, and yes suburban pharmacies are robbed as well. But at least he was away from..... 'The Animals.'