Predicted line moves for Weds 11/17

[Doug]

I'm just starting, but notice 9 teams going back to back here, seems quite a lot ?

An early thought is on Lakers drawing some bets, depending on how Clips finish their game. It's a late game, so may attract chasers on 5 point favorite.

I'm not betting it just yet, just a quick thought.

Anybody else got ideas brewing to catch the games that may move.

I'll probably have 1 or 2 in a few hours.

 

[Doug]

That one already moved a half-point and I'm far from pulling the trigger on it. I want to bet early, but not too early. It's a big card. I won't reccomend a move before betting it myself.

 

[Doug]

No personal bets for me overnight.

My initial thought was right LAL moved from -5 -106 to -4.5 -117, but I'm not chasing a missed move.


I have a couple of leans, but not the confidence to bet them, so I pass


Atl +14 -112 is likely to drop, after beating Houston as 8.5 dog, that's a lot of points

Phnx -5.5 -105 is likely to become worse line after nice win over Dallas as dog.

I don't like any of these to move enough for a middle, just guessing movement

on these, just thoughts, I'm trying to keep the overnight thing going, and welcome input !

Predicting a move doesn't mean I like that side, I may come back stronger on other side, if I pick. Goal is a middle.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

I think totals are easier to middle for the game and Sides are easier to middle at halftime...IMO

 

[Doug]

Pete: I'm not trying to be difficult, respect your posts.

You say totals easier to middle for game, I agree but say you need at least 2 points difference. I say you can't achieve this without prediction of line move. A middle must span enough of a gap, say 2 points, to think about it.

For half-time ... you state " it is easier to middle at half-time"... Ok , but you won't find much of a middle. I doubt you find lines giving you a number, unless laying big juice. Very tough to middle this, maybe side it, but lines move real quick. Even if you get the middle. it's expensive

Dude: you got big pelotas if you try to middle NBA halves, personally I'll settle for what I think is close to the peak line.

I don't think it's often even a middle, more like a side.

If you can do this, I salute you !

 

[PeteRoseJR]

DougJ

Sorry I wasnt very specific...What I will do and what I consider to be a productive middle is this:

I strictly bet underdogs and small home favs.....When halftime rolls around if the team I bet on is up at half I m in the driver seat and can hedge and middle out accordingly...and usually do...to minimize losses and those bad nights..It takes away from some wins but I middle often too:

Example: Team DOUGJ vs PETEY JR === the line is Petey JR -6.0

If they meet the right criteria I would take DougJ +6.0

Halftime DOUGJ leads by 11...halftime line is Petey JR-8,,,Now in actuallity I have Petey JR + 3 for the game..A "discount" of 9 points on the HOME team
So now I would take Petey JR -8 so I can try and hit the DOUGJ wins by 1-2-3 I middle with no risk of money just their money as of half..If the home team comes back in the 2nd half the I am covered and if not oh well..no loss..try again tomorrow.....I can go into further if interested as there are further stipulation that qualify for a no bet as well...Bets are rated accordingly to always guarantee a small profit on bets...Bad situations are when you are blown out at the half and usually have to sit back and take it or hope for a comeback......

 

[Doug]

I skimmed real quik, Pete, need to sleep, will re-read later. I'm not against you. Will respond better, later.

 

[PeteRoseJR]

Sounds Good man..Have a good sleep talk to you tommorow....PRJ

 

[supersharp]

It doesn't make any sense to bet on both sides at the same line such as one at +6 and one at -6. Only one side will win and you'll be out the juice. If your -8(which is not risk free) loses, you've gone 1-2. It would make more sense to only take one side in your original bet.

 

[OldManRock]

It doesn't make any sense to bet on both sides at the same line such as one at +6 and one at -6. Only one side will win and you'll be out the juice. If your -8(which is not risk free) loses, you've gone 1-2. It would make more sense to only take one side in your original bet.

Actually what Pete is saying does make sense. And worked for me last night.

I had 1 unit on Charlotte +11 over Utah last night. And by the half the Bobcats were winning 54-40 (unbelievable). I've watched this Utah team and I know their legit. They just were out of sync the first half. I still believed Utah could win the game and so I took Utah -9.5 for the second half for half a unit. If utah didn't cover for the second half I still walk away with half aunit minus vig. But if Utah loses by 4 or less or wins by less than 11 I win both bets. The only way I can lose on this game is if Charlotte totally collapses and Utah wins by more than 11 and then I only lose half a unit as opposed to 1 whole unit. So if you know the team playing just had a bad half and are likely toimprove the second half. This kind ofmiddling can work. As last night shows. utah did beat Charlotte by less than 11 and I won both bets.

 

[Fishhead]

The SUNS are giving an indication they may be moving up from -5.5

 

[PeteRoseJR]

OLDMANROCK,

thats exactly what I am talking about..I dont explain things well ....thank-you....