Preakness 2016: Horses, Favorites and Picks for This Year's Field
Jessica Paquette - Bleacher Report
Favorite
Nyquist
There is no question that Nyquist will be the heavy favorite. The past two years, the Kentucky Derby winner has been the favorite in the Run for the Roses, delivered in that race and then parlayed that into a win in the Preakness Stakes, also as the favorite.
Unlike California Chrome or even the great American Pharoah, Nyquist has never lost a race. He has yet to show any weakness, and there is little reason to think he will throw in a clunker on Saturday.
Trainer Doug O'Neill saddled I'll Have Another to win both the Derby and the Preakness in 2004 and was confident in Nyquist in a recent interview with Jonathan Lintner of the Courier-Journal.
"Him being 8-for-8, he shows in the afternoon it doesn’t matter what state, what track, if he gets a semi-clean track and if he gets any chance to get to the wire first, he’s going to give everything he has to get it done."
Contenders
Exaggerator
Exaggerator showed he was the real deal with a furious late charge in the Run for the Roses. He has faced Nyquist several times and has never been able to get the edge over his rival. While the Preakness is run at 1 3/16 miles, a slightly shorter distance than the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby, Exaggerator could benefit from a hotly contested pace with several fresh horses with front-running styles in the race. It is worth noting that his sire, Curlin, won this race in 2007.
Gun Runner
No concrete decision has been made whether or not Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Gun Runner will move on to the Preakness Stakes. If he does, he seems like a legitimate contender. He has won four of his six starts and has done very little wrong in his limited career. He tracked a swift pace in the Derby and showed a lot of class to grudgingly hold on for third. He is a colt who could benefit from the shorter distance of the Preakness Stakes.
Stradivari
Stradivari is unproven and untested at this point. After a fourth-place finish in his career debut, he won his next two starts impressively. Sound familiar? In 2006, Bernardini came into the Preakness Stakes off of a similar path and launched himself into the national spotlight with a victory. Stradivari will be getting a major class test.
Pretenders
Laoban
Laoban, like Trojan Nation in the Kentucky Derby, is a maiden taking on the best horses of his crop. From five starts, Laoban has yet to prove he can win a race, and it is a very ambitious task asking him to notch his first victory against the likes of Nyquist. Can David defeat Goliah here? It seems unlikely. I'm sure there are several maiden races on the card that would be more appropriate.
He will get an equipment change for the Preakness and will compete without blinkers. Trainer Eric Guillot told the Bloodhorse that the hope is to "try to get him to relax instead of pulling the jock around there."
Lani
Lani is a fascinating horse. With unconventional training methods and an international resume, he was an intriguing addition to the Kentucky Derby. With the way he was training leading up to the Kentucky Derby, anything beyond a last-place finish was going to be a pleasant surprise. He finished ninth and, all things considered, did not run a terrible race.
Long Shots
Collected
Trainer Bob Baffert has won the Preakness Stakes six times, most recently with American Pharoah in 2015. He may not have the favorite this year, but he will send out long shot Collected. The speedy colt is in sharp form currently and has won four of his six career starts. He will have some pressure for the lead, but he will be a part of the pace early. The question is whether he is truly a two-turn sort of runner.
Fellowship
Trainer Mark Casse is having a banner year. He recently notched the 2,000th victory of his career and has one of the best horses in the world in his barn in champion Tepin. Now, he will try to add the Preakness to his list of accomplishments and will saddle long shot Fellowship. Fellowship has yet to win a graded stakes race but has been relatively consistent. He will be a big price, and if the Casse magic continues, he could be a surprise.
Early Predictions
Win: Nyquist
Place: Stradivari
Show: Exaggerator
Post-Draw Effect
With the field being practically half the size of the Kentucky Derby, the post-position draw is not nearly as tense or crucial as it is for the Run for the Roses. Nyquist has proven that he can run his race on any racing surface and from any post position, so there is not really a draw that would impact him.
Some of the speed horses such as Laoban and Collected will benefit from an inside draw where they could, in theory, break well and secure an advantageous ground-saving trip on the rail. While the post draw itself is largely inconsequential, the pace scenario of the race is the real story.
Exaggerator, a horse that does his best running from off the pace, could benefit and capitalize on fast early fractions. Nyquist's greatest strength is how tactical he is—he is quick enough to keep up with quick fractions but can launch his winning move from anywhere.