Mike Dempsey
PIM Race 13 The Preakness G1 (6:45 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Nyquist 3-5 4-5
#7 Collected 10-1 8-1
#5 Exaggerator 3-1 3-1
#10 Fellowship 30-1 20-1
Analysis: Nyquist is perfect in eight career starts and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure in his Kentucky Derby (G1) win. He comes back in two weeks but let's not forget he has had a light campaign, just the seven furlong San Vicente (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before his Kentucky Derby victory. O'Neill has been down this path before with I'll Have Another. The colt should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace and Derby winners and favorites have been dominant in this race. The chance of a wet track should not pose a problem as he ran well over a wet track at Gulfstream Park and is bred to like a wet track. The lone knock on this guy is his price.
Collected is coming off a sharp win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland last out. After winning the Sham (G3) earlier this year he went into Oaklawn Park and was sent off as the betting favorite in the Southwest (G3) but came up short in a fourth place finish. He has bounced back with two wins for Baffert who has won the Preakness six times. He has not has success with starters that did not race in the Derby first, but this colt still looks as if he has some upside, has a strong off track pedigree, and will have the jump on Exaggerator heading for home.
Exaggerator made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Derby but has now finished behind Nyquist four times and hard to find a reason he will turn the tables here. He does like an off track as his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win in the slop was one of the most impressive Derby prep races. However, the Pimlico surface dries out fast and the forecast is not always right. He should get some pace to run at but he may end up with too much to do in the final furlong.
Fellowship ran third in the Holy Bull (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). His first start for trainer Mark Casse did not go well in a fourth place finish in the Pat Day Mile (G3). He has not run fast enough to win here but could rally for a small piece at a decent price.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,7,10,11
PIM Race 13 The Preakness G1 (6:45 ET) ML FAIR
#3 Nyquist 3-5 4-5
#7 Collected 10-1 8-1
#5 Exaggerator 3-1 3-1
#10 Fellowship 30-1 20-1
Analysis: Nyquist is perfect in eight career starts and earned a career top Beyer Speed Figure in his Kentucky Derby (G1) win. He comes back in two weeks but let's not forget he has had a light campaign, just the seven furlong San Vicente (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) before his Kentucky Derby victory. O'Neill has been down this path before with I'll Have Another. The colt should get a perfect trip sitting just off the pace and Derby winners and favorites have been dominant in this race. The chance of a wet track should not pose a problem as he ran well over a wet track at Gulfstream Park and is bred to like a wet track. The lone knock on this guy is his price.
Collected is coming off a sharp win in the Lexington (G3) at Keeneland last out. After winning the Sham (G3) earlier this year he went into Oaklawn Park and was sent off as the betting favorite in the Southwest (G3) but came up short in a fourth place finish. He has bounced back with two wins for Baffert who has won the Preakness six times. He has not has success with starters that did not race in the Derby first, but this colt still looks as if he has some upside, has a strong off track pedigree, and will have the jump on Exaggerator heading for home.
Exaggerator made a good late run to finish in the runner up spot in the Derby but has now finished behind Nyquist four times and hard to find a reason he will turn the tables here. He does like an off track as his Santa Anita Derby (G1) win in the slop was one of the most impressive Derby prep races. However, the Pimlico surface dries out fast and the forecast is not always right. He should get some pace to run at but he may end up with too much to do in the final furlong.
Fellowship ran third in the Holy Bull (G2), Fountain of Youth (G2) and the Florida Derby (G1). His first start for trainer Mark Casse did not go well in a fourth place finish in the Pat Day Mile (G3). He has not run fast enough to win here but could rally for a small piece at a decent price.
Race Rating: $$
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 4-5 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10
TRI: 3,7 / 3,5,7,10 / 3,5,7,10,11
Mike Dempsey
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Pimlico
R1: #9 Steve Came Thru 15-1
R2: #3 Cherub 8-1
R3: #7 Big House 8-1
R4: #1 Rachel Wall 12-1
R4: #8 Pramedya 12-1
R5: #1 All Star Red 12-1
R7: #9 Queequeg 8-1
R7: #5 Gin Makes Ya Sin 15-1
R8: #1 Miss Matzoball 12-1
R8: #10 Joya Real 10-1
R9: #5 Never Gone South 8-1
R11: #1 Lazarus Project 20-1
R12: #4 takeover Target 8-1
R13: #7 Collected 10-1
R13: #10 Fellowship 30-1
R14: #1a habits 8-1
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Pimlico
R1: #9 Steve Came Thru 15-1
R2: #3 Cherub 8-1
R3: #7 Big House 8-1
R4: #1 Rachel Wall 12-1
R4: #8 Pramedya 12-1
R5: #1 All Star Red 12-1
R7: #9 Queequeg 8-1
R7: #5 Gin Makes Ya Sin 15-1
R8: #1 Miss Matzoball 12-1
R8: #10 Joya Real 10-1
R9: #5 Never Gone South 8-1
R11: #1 Lazarus Project 20-1
R12: #4 takeover Target 8-1
R13: #7 Collected 10-1
R13: #10 Fellowship 30-1
R14: #1a habits 8-1
Steve Merril - Steve's Screenshot (Preakness) (Saturday 5/21)
Preakness Stakes 141 - Saturday, May 21
Post Time: 6:49 pm ET
Nyquist (3/5) and Exaggerator (3/1) are the top 2 betting choices and deservingly so. Heavy rain is expected and Exaggerator has proven to love a sloppy track. Pace should be fast with a lot of speed signed on. This is a very weak edition of the Preakness as the remaining field has accomplished very little while running slow races.
Not much value with either favorite at such short prices, although one will likely win this race. With the remaining field being weak, there is also not much value with any exacta or trifecta combinations. The payoff will be extremely low with Nyquist and/or Exaggerator at the top of the field.
Preakness Stakes 141 - Saturday, May 21
Post Time: 6:49 pm ET
Nyquist (3/5) and Exaggerator (3/1) are the top 2 betting choices and deservingly so. Heavy rain is expected and Exaggerator has proven to love a sloppy track. Pace should be fast with a lot of speed signed on. This is a very weak edition of the Preakness as the remaining field has accomplished very little while running slow races.
Not much value with either favorite at such short prices, although one will likely win this race. With the remaining field being weak, there is also not much value with any exacta or trifecta combinations. The payoff will be extremely low with Nyquist and/or Exaggerator at the top of the field.
