JOE DRAPE and MELISSA HOPPERT
The horses for Saturday’s 140th running of the Preakness Stakes are listed in order of post position with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Both have also selected their win-place-show horses. The morning-line odds were set by Keith Feustle of Pimlico Race Course.
Purse: $1.5 million guaranteed Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Track record: 1:52.2 (Farma Way, 1991) Weight: 126 pounds
Post time: 6:18 p.m. Eastern time Television: NBC
Joe Drape’s picks: Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharoah
Melissa Hoppert’s picks: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Firing Line
1. American Pharoah
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza Odds: 4-5
J.D.: This colt was all out to win the Derby over Firing Line and Dortmund. They are back, and Pharoah finishes behind them.
M.H.: He has won five straight and looks every bit like a true champion. But how will he rebound from a taxing effort in the Derby?
2. Dortmund
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia Odds: 7-2
J.D.: This big colt did all the work on the front end, and a tiring track did him in. He may go gate to wire.
M.H.: He wore himself out going to the lead out of the gate in the Derby. But this is a shorter race, and a horse of his size should be able to rebound quickly.
3. Mr. Z
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Corey Nakatani Odds: 20-1
J.D.: This wild card, who finished 13th in the Derby, is going to press the Baffert horses. Use him in your trifectas and superfectas.
M.H.: Owned by Ahmed Zayat until Wednesday, when he was sold to Calumet Farm, he is now a rival of Zayat’s American Pharoah. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, but this colt has won only once in 13 starts.
4. Danzig Moon
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Julien Leparoux Odds: 15-1
J.D.: He was roughed up in the Derby, where he finished fifth, but this promising colt is out of his pay grade.
M.H.: He generated a lot of buzz ahead of the Derby after some stellar training sessions, but he has still won only once in six starts.
5. Tale of Verve
Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Joel Rosario Odds: 30-1
J.D.: Really? Off a single victory in a maiden race?
M.H.: He has a top jockey in Rosario, but, otherwise, this horse has no shot.
6. Bodhisattva
Trainer: Jose Corrales Jockey: Trevor McCarthy Odds: 20-1
J.D.: He has a great name and local connections. Next.
M.H.: Won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, but the home-track advantage will not be enough to top the big three.
7. Divining Rod
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 12-1
J.D.: This is a nice colt, but mainly because of his owners, who raced Barbaro, he will be overbet.
M.H.: Of the fresh horses coming into this race, the Lexington Stakes winner probably has the best shot to hit the board.
8. Firing Line
Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens Odds: 4-1
J.D.: The Derby runner-up never runs a bad race, is battle-tested and will run big again.
M.H.: Stevens, at 52, has that fire in his eyes again and is looking to play spoiler to American Pharoah’s Triple Crown bid. He certainly has the horse to do it.
The horses for Saturday’s 140th running of the Preakness Stakes are listed in order of post position with comments provided by Joe Drape and Melissa Hoppert of The New York Times. Both have also selected their win-place-show horses. The morning-line odds were set by Keith Feustle of Pimlico Race Course.
Purse: $1.5 million guaranteed Distance: 1 3/16 miles
Track record: 1:52.2 (Farma Way, 1991) Weight: 126 pounds
Post time: 6:18 p.m. Eastern time Television: NBC
Joe Drape’s picks: Firing Line, Dortmund, American Pharoah
Melissa Hoppert’s picks: Dortmund, American Pharoah, Firing Line
1. American Pharoah
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Victor Espinoza Odds: 4-5
J.D.: This colt was all out to win the Derby over Firing Line and Dortmund. They are back, and Pharoah finishes behind them.
M.H.: He has won five straight and looks every bit like a true champion. But how will he rebound from a taxing effort in the Derby?
2. Dortmund
Trainer: Bob Baffert Jockey: Martin Garcia Odds: 7-2
J.D.: This big colt did all the work on the front end, and a tiring track did him in. He may go gate to wire.
M.H.: He wore himself out going to the lead out of the gate in the Derby. But this is a shorter race, and a horse of his size should be able to rebound quickly.
3. Mr. Z
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas Jockey: Corey Nakatani Odds: 20-1
J.D.: This wild card, who finished 13th in the Derby, is going to press the Baffert horses. Use him in your trifectas and superfectas.
M.H.: Owned by Ahmed Zayat until Wednesday, when he was sold to Calumet Farm, he is now a rival of Zayat’s American Pharoah. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, but this colt has won only once in 13 starts.
4. Danzig Moon
Trainer: Mark Casse Jockey: Julien Leparoux Odds: 15-1
J.D.: He was roughed up in the Derby, where he finished fifth, but this promising colt is out of his pay grade.
M.H.: He generated a lot of buzz ahead of the Derby after some stellar training sessions, but he has still won only once in six starts.
5. Tale of Verve
Trainer: Dallas Stewart Jockey: Joel Rosario Odds: 30-1
J.D.: Really? Off a single victory in a maiden race?
M.H.: He has a top jockey in Rosario, but, otherwise, this horse has no shot.
6. Bodhisattva
Trainer: Jose Corrales Jockey: Trevor McCarthy Odds: 20-1
J.D.: He has a great name and local connections. Next.
M.H.: Won the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico, but the home-track advantage will not be enough to top the big three.
7. Divining Rod
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour Jockey: Javier Castellano Odds: 12-1
J.D.: This is a nice colt, but mainly because of his owners, who raced Barbaro, he will be overbet.
M.H.: Of the fresh horses coming into this race, the Lexington Stakes winner probably has the best shot to hit the board.
8. Firing Line
Trainer: Simon Callaghan Jockey: Gary Stevens Odds: 4-1
J.D.: The Derby runner-up never runs a bad race, is battle-tested and will run big again.
M.H.: Stevens, at 52, has that fire in his eyes again and is looking to play spoiler to American Pharoah’s Triple Crown bid. He certainly has the horse to do it.
Preakness Stakes betting horse-by-horse preview and picks
Twenty years ago, trainer D. Wayne Lukas sent out two horses in the Preakness Stakes and Timber Country, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby two weeks prior, beat the Derby winner, Thunder Gulch.
Thunder Gulch then came back to win the Belmont Stakes, thus, Lukas blew his own chance at a Triple Crown champion.
Here we go again.
On Saturday, trainer Bob Baffert will saddle the top two choices in the Preakness and will Dortmund, who was third in the Kentucky Derby, upset American Pharoah and end the colt's chances of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978?
Here is a look at the entire field:
1. American Pharoah (Jockey-Victor Espinoza, odds 4-5): Has won five-straight races including the Kentucky Derby by a clear length. Pharoah's owner, Ahmed Zayat, feels his horse is better than Dortmund and since he beat him once, he can do it again. Even Baffert, who is at the whim of Dortmund's owner to enter the colt, intimated the same. It really feels like we'll be headed for a Triple Crown run in three weeks at Belmont. The only question is whether American Pharoah will bounce off a pretty difficult trip in the Derby but this is a small field and I feel that Materiality (who will skip this race) had the best chance of beating him.
2. Dortmund (Martin Garcia, 7-2): Baffert has won the Preakness five times and if American Pharoah doesn't fire, this one surely has the best chance at securing the victory. But, he was in a great spot in the Derby and looked like the winner but didn't get it done so I'd pass on him this time.
3. Mr. Z (Corey Nakatani, 20-1): Wasn't going to run this week but the colt was sold to the Calumet Farm during the week and its connections decided to enter him. It wouldn't surprise me if he tried to steal this race from the gate but he's lost 12 straight races and doesn't appear to be at this level. He was previously owned by the Zayat Stables and the Ahmed Zayat wasn't go to run him against American Pharoah – just in case.
4. Danzig Moon (Julien Leparoux, 12-1): Actually had excuses in the Derby finishing fifth after a troubled trip. He's getting better and I'd keep him in mind later in the season, perhaps around Breeder's Cup time.
5. Tale of Verve (Joel Rosario, 30-1): Can you win the Preakness in your first start after breaking your maiden? He's well-bred but with a top Beyer figure of just 72 it's far from likely. First of three new shooters in the eight-horse field.
6. Bodhisattva (Trevor McCarthy, 20-1): Hoping to parlay the home-track advantage into a win. The local star won the Tesio Stakes at Pimlico and is the only horse in the field with a race over this surface but he's a former maiden claimer who’s never faced horses this good.
7. Divining Rod (Javier Castellano, 12-1): Won the Lexington Stakes changing tactics and coming from off the pace. That's usually a sign that the horse is in great form but he's also never ran against a field this good, hasn't worked well and loses Leparoux to Danzig Moon. That's just too many negatives (but I might have a ticket with No. 7 on it in my pocket just to be safe).
8. Firing Line (Gary Stevens, 4-1): A big threat who finished second to Pharoah in the Derby by just a length at 9-1. Has never been worse than second in six career starts and actually led the Run for the Roses at the top of the stretch. It's been a grueling stretch of races for Firing Line who is always in a war but with a small field and a clear trip from the outside he should hit the board.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Firing Line. 3. Dortmund. 4. Mr. Z.
Twenty years ago, trainer D. Wayne Lukas sent out two horses in the Preakness Stakes and Timber Country, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby two weeks prior, beat the Derby winner, Thunder Gulch.
Thunder Gulch then came back to win the Belmont Stakes, thus, Lukas blew his own chance at a Triple Crown champion.
Here we go again.
On Saturday, trainer Bob Baffert will saddle the top two choices in the Preakness and will Dortmund, who was third in the Kentucky Derby, upset American Pharoah and end the colt's chances of becoming the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978?
Here is a look at the entire field:
1. American Pharoah (Jockey-Victor Espinoza, odds 4-5): Has won five-straight races including the Kentucky Derby by a clear length. Pharoah's owner, Ahmed Zayat, feels his horse is better than Dortmund and since he beat him once, he can do it again. Even Baffert, who is at the whim of Dortmund's owner to enter the colt, intimated the same. It really feels like we'll be headed for a Triple Crown run in three weeks at Belmont. The only question is whether American Pharoah will bounce off a pretty difficult trip in the Derby but this is a small field and I feel that Materiality (who will skip this race) had the best chance of beating him.
2. Dortmund (Martin Garcia, 7-2): Baffert has won the Preakness five times and if American Pharoah doesn't fire, this one surely has the best chance at securing the victory. But, he was in a great spot in the Derby and looked like the winner but didn't get it done so I'd pass on him this time.
3. Mr. Z (Corey Nakatani, 20-1): Wasn't going to run this week but the colt was sold to the Calumet Farm during the week and its connections decided to enter him. It wouldn't surprise me if he tried to steal this race from the gate but he's lost 12 straight races and doesn't appear to be at this level. He was previously owned by the Zayat Stables and the Ahmed Zayat wasn't go to run him against American Pharoah – just in case.
4. Danzig Moon (Julien Leparoux, 12-1): Actually had excuses in the Derby finishing fifth after a troubled trip. He's getting better and I'd keep him in mind later in the season, perhaps around Breeder's Cup time.
5. Tale of Verve (Joel Rosario, 30-1): Can you win the Preakness in your first start after breaking your maiden? He's well-bred but with a top Beyer figure of just 72 it's far from likely. First of three new shooters in the eight-horse field.
6. Bodhisattva (Trevor McCarthy, 20-1): Hoping to parlay the home-track advantage into a win. The local star won the Tesio Stakes at Pimlico and is the only horse in the field with a race over this surface but he's a former maiden claimer who’s never faced horses this good.
7. Divining Rod (Javier Castellano, 12-1): Won the Lexington Stakes changing tactics and coming from off the pace. That's usually a sign that the horse is in great form but he's also never ran against a field this good, hasn't worked well and loses Leparoux to Danzig Moon. That's just too many negatives (but I might have a ticket with No. 7 on it in my pocket just to be safe).
8. Firing Line (Gary Stevens, 4-1): A big threat who finished second to Pharoah in the Derby by just a length at 9-1. Has never been worse than second in six career starts and actually led the Run for the Roses at the top of the stretch. It's been a grueling stretch of races for Firing Line who is always in a war but with a small field and a clear trip from the outside he should hit the board.
Picks: 1. American Pharoah. 2. Firing Line. 3. Dortmund. 4. Mr. Z.
Preakness Stakes Breakdown
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
1 – American Pharoah 4/5 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: He couldn’t have worked out a better trip in the Kentucky Derby if he scripted it and directed it. With that said he found himself in a tussle for the first time in his career through the lane and came out on top of not one, but two battle tested colts in Firing Line and his stablemate Dortmund. Things are a little different now as he goes from his cushy outside post to the dreaded rail but it shouldn’t be a problem for him and his abundant speed like it was for a horse like Orb in 2013 who got stuck down along the inside. In fact, a horse like American Pharoah should, in theory, benefit from this inside draw. I hope Espinoza just goes to the top and makes every pole a winning one. Singling him in all of my multi-race exotics and putting him on top of all my Preakness plays.
2 - Dortmund 7/2 Martin Garcia (1-3) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: In 1995, a horse named Oliver’s Twist saved D. Wayne Lukas from the embarrassment of costing himself a Triple Crown winner when he beat Derby/eventual Belmont winner Thunder Gulch by a neck for place as the Lukas trained Timber Country got the money. Its 20 years later and Bob Baffert could quite possibly be in the same situation. Many feel he’s the only thing standing in American Pharoah’s way for a chance at immortality. I think he has the ability to beat him but don’t think he will. I soured on him a tad after the Derby because if you’d have told me an hour before the race that he’d be a length in front through six furlongs in 1:11 1/5 in Louisville I’d have bet every dollar to my name on him and he just couldn’t finish the job. The way things are set up right now, if he was going to beat American Pharoah, it was last time out. Using him underneath in all of my exotic plays.
3 – Mr. Z 20/1 Corey Nakatani (0-4) D. Wayne Lukas (6-40)
Notes: Lukas put him in a van and started driving him to Baltimore even though Ahmed Zayat, his owner at the time said he wasn’t running in here. Lukas said he was running here and not in the Sir Barton on the undercard like Zayat wanted. So, Zayat sold him to another Lukas client, Calumet Farm and he’s running here. The question now is does he gun to the top and make things difficult on American Pharoah or does he try to come from off the pace and grab a small piece of the pie. I say the game plan is to run and gun and because of that I want no part of him.
4 – Danzig Moon 15/1 Julien Leparoux (0-6) Mark Casse (0-1)
Notes: Like many coming out of the Derby, if you watch the replay, it looks like he ran on a treadmill the entire way around. He didn’t move. The comment “evenly” is what I would have said about him and a dozen others in Louisville. He’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race and yet he’s getting all sorts of buzz. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan or understood why people like him so much. He’ll likely take some money as well, as people will be trying to get him in the number to split the chalks. You can if you want to but he’s not really for me.
5 – Tale of Verve 30/1 Joel Rosario (0-3) Dallas Stewart (0-3)
Notes: Eleventh hour Derby entrant got stuck on the AE list and was excluded from the field because El Kabeir and International Star scratched well after scratch time on Friday. It may have been a blessing in disguise sine he would have had to break from the outside post and the fast pace he would have needed never developed. Like Danzig Moon, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race but he did break his maiden at this very distance. He may be the biggest price on the morning line but I doubt he’ll be when the wagering closes. I don’t think he can win but I will use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas.
6 – Bodhisattva 20/1 Trevor McCarthy (Debut) Jose Corrales (Debut)
Notes: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the obligatory, yearly local hope for the Preakness. All but three of his 11 starts have come in the state of Maryland, all three of his victories have, including the Federico Tesio last out over this course and he’s trained and will be ridden by local connections. Though he went gate-to-wire last out I think he’s better from off of the pace which shouldn’t be an issue since the speed horses in here are simply faster than he is. I don’t think the trip will be the problem I just don’t think he’s this good. But with that said a small share isn’t out of the question so I will use him on the bottom end of my trifectas and superfectas.
7 – Divining Rod 12/1 Javier Castellano (1-3) Arnaud Delacour (Debut)
Notes: Here’s a price horse I can sink my teeth into. Worked out a wonderful trip in his easy Lexington tally last out when he beat Donworth, a horse I LOVE in the Sir Barton and think the world of. Like Bodhisattva, I think he’ll be right behind the first bunch and should work out another great trip under a guy who always seems to be in the right place at the right time in Castellano who’s riding him for the first time. He’s owned by Lael Stables, the owners of the ill-fated 2006 Derby winner Barbaro who broke down in the Preakness that year. This would be an emotional, bittersweet score to say the least, but one they would surely accept. If there is a complete pace collapse he can win but I don’t foresee that happening. Using him underneath American Pharoah in all of my exotic wagers.
8 – Firing Line 4/1 Gary Stevens (3-17) Simon Callaghan (Debut)
Notes: So, you’ve probably hear a lot of people talking about how you need to get one of the favorites from the Derby out of this number to make any money. He is my candidate. Don’t get me wrong….I’m not tossing him because that’s the only way to make money. Dealing in absolutes like that gets you in trouble in this game. I simply don’t like him in this spot. His trainer has tried selling us on the fact that he needed six weeks between his preps because he thrives on the time off and now wants me to bet him back in two weeks off of the best effort of his career? That doesn’t make any sense to me. Combine that with the fact that he did all of the dirty work in the Derby chasing Dortmund, he didn’t change leads through the stretch and he’s likely going to be the second choice in the wagering and he’s an easy toss for me.
By Anthony Stabile
VegasInsider
1 – American Pharoah 4/5 Victor Espinoza (2-6) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: He couldn’t have worked out a better trip in the Kentucky Derby if he scripted it and directed it. With that said he found himself in a tussle for the first time in his career through the lane and came out on top of not one, but two battle tested colts in Firing Line and his stablemate Dortmund. Things are a little different now as he goes from his cushy outside post to the dreaded rail but it shouldn’t be a problem for him and his abundant speed like it was for a horse like Orb in 2013 who got stuck down along the inside. In fact, a horse like American Pharoah should, in theory, benefit from this inside draw. I hope Espinoza just goes to the top and makes every pole a winning one. Singling him in all of my multi-race exotics and putting him on top of all my Preakness plays.
2 - Dortmund 7/2 Martin Garcia (1-3) Bob Baffert (5-15)
Notes: In 1995, a horse named Oliver’s Twist saved D. Wayne Lukas from the embarrassment of costing himself a Triple Crown winner when he beat Derby/eventual Belmont winner Thunder Gulch by a neck for place as the Lukas trained Timber Country got the money. Its 20 years later and Bob Baffert could quite possibly be in the same situation. Many feel he’s the only thing standing in American Pharoah’s way for a chance at immortality. I think he has the ability to beat him but don’t think he will. I soured on him a tad after the Derby because if you’d have told me an hour before the race that he’d be a length in front through six furlongs in 1:11 1/5 in Louisville I’d have bet every dollar to my name on him and he just couldn’t finish the job. The way things are set up right now, if he was going to beat American Pharoah, it was last time out. Using him underneath in all of my exotic plays.
3 – Mr. Z 20/1 Corey Nakatani (0-4) D. Wayne Lukas (6-40)
Notes: Lukas put him in a van and started driving him to Baltimore even though Ahmed Zayat, his owner at the time said he wasn’t running in here. Lukas said he was running here and not in the Sir Barton on the undercard like Zayat wanted. So, Zayat sold him to another Lukas client, Calumet Farm and he’s running here. The question now is does he gun to the top and make things difficult on American Pharoah or does he try to come from off the pace and grab a small piece of the pie. I say the game plan is to run and gun and because of that I want no part of him.
4 – Danzig Moon 15/1 Julien Leparoux (0-6) Mark Casse (0-1)
Notes: Like many coming out of the Derby, if you watch the replay, it looks like he ran on a treadmill the entire way around. He didn’t move. The comment “evenly” is what I would have said about him and a dozen others in Louisville. He’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race and yet he’s getting all sorts of buzz. Frankly, I’ve never been a fan or understood why people like him so much. He’ll likely take some money as well, as people will be trying to get him in the number to split the chalks. You can if you want to but he’s not really for me.
5 – Tale of Verve 30/1 Joel Rosario (0-3) Dallas Stewart (0-3)
Notes: Eleventh hour Derby entrant got stuck on the AE list and was excluded from the field because El Kabeir and International Star scratched well after scratch time on Friday. It may have been a blessing in disguise sine he would have had to break from the outside post and the fast pace he would have needed never developed. Like Danzig Moon, he’s still eligible for an entry level allowance race but he did break his maiden at this very distance. He may be the biggest price on the morning line but I doubt he’ll be when the wagering closes. I don’t think he can win but I will use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas.
6 – Bodhisattva 20/1 Trevor McCarthy (Debut) Jose Corrales (Debut)
Notes: Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the obligatory, yearly local hope for the Preakness. All but three of his 11 starts have come in the state of Maryland, all three of his victories have, including the Federico Tesio last out over this course and he’s trained and will be ridden by local connections. Though he went gate-to-wire last out I think he’s better from off of the pace which shouldn’t be an issue since the speed horses in here are simply faster than he is. I don’t think the trip will be the problem I just don’t think he’s this good. But with that said a small share isn’t out of the question so I will use him on the bottom end of my trifectas and superfectas.
7 – Divining Rod 12/1 Javier Castellano (1-3) Arnaud Delacour (Debut)
Notes: Here’s a price horse I can sink my teeth into. Worked out a wonderful trip in his easy Lexington tally last out when he beat Donworth, a horse I LOVE in the Sir Barton and think the world of. Like Bodhisattva, I think he’ll be right behind the first bunch and should work out another great trip under a guy who always seems to be in the right place at the right time in Castellano who’s riding him for the first time. He’s owned by Lael Stables, the owners of the ill-fated 2006 Derby winner Barbaro who broke down in the Preakness that year. This would be an emotional, bittersweet score to say the least, but one they would surely accept. If there is a complete pace collapse he can win but I don’t foresee that happening. Using him underneath American Pharoah in all of my exotic wagers.
8 – Firing Line 4/1 Gary Stevens (3-17) Simon Callaghan (Debut)
Notes: So, you’ve probably hear a lot of people talking about how you need to get one of the favorites from the Derby out of this number to make any money. He is my candidate. Don’t get me wrong….I’m not tossing him because that’s the only way to make money. Dealing in absolutes like that gets you in trouble in this game. I simply don’t like him in this spot. His trainer has tried selling us on the fact that he needed six weeks between his preps because he thrives on the time off and now wants me to bet him back in two weeks off of the best effort of his career? That doesn’t make any sense to me. Combine that with the fact that he did all of the dirty work in the Derby chasing Dortmund, he didn’t change leads through the stretch and he’s likely going to be the second choice in the wagering and he’s an easy toss for me.
2015 Preakness Preview
bY Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews
Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah could very well be less than even-money when he leaves the gate in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Baltimore’s Pimlico Race Course (6:18 p.m. ET, NBC).
Some will say this makes the 140th Preakness an unappealing betting race. Others, though, will step right up to disagree with their wallets.
Let’s suppose American Pharoah wins at 4-to-5 and pays $3.60. That’s an 80 percent return on a $2 bet.
Hey, your Saturday could be worse.
Other handicappers figure to see American Pharoah as an ideal single in multi-race wagers such as the Pick Four, which ends in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and has a guaranteed $1.5 million pool. Still others will use him as a key in exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta.
However, there will be bettors who will try to beat the favorite, perhaps through a simple win wager. Why, just two years ago, Orb lost at 70 cents on the dollar, with the winner, Oxbow, playing 15-to-1.
No matter how you approach the Preakness, here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field:
No. 1: American Pharoah
Morning-line odds: 4-to-5
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s the clear class of the field. He showed grit in the Derby, chasing down Firing Line and Dortmund under a strong drive. According to Baffert, American Pharoah has come out of the Derby in good order.
Things not to like: The No. 1 post position is not ideal. Since 1960, only two horses have won the Preakness breaking from Gate One. The bigger concern, however, might be American Pharoah racing for the third time in five weeks.
Best-case scenario: He breaks well, uses his tactical speed to get a good stalking position and proves best, just as he did in the Derby.
No. 2: Dortmund
Morning-line odds: 7-to-2
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Things to like entering the Preakness: Was a competitive third in the Kentucky Derby, losing by only three lengths in his first career defeat. The performance looks better after Baffert disclosed the colt had a brief colic scare one week before the Derby.
Things not to like: Set a moderate pace on the lead in the Derby and was still outrun by Firing Line and American Pharoah.
Best-case scenario: This time, he goes to the front — and never looks back.
No. 3: Mr. Z
Morning-line odds: 20-to-1
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Things to like entering the Preakness: He has some decent back form, losing by just a head to Dortmund and a nose to Firing Line in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, including with Oxbow two years ago.
Things not to like: Mr. Z has lost 13 consecutive races. In the Derby, he finished 13th, beaten 15 1/2 lengths, albeit with a tough early trip. He has appeared to lose a little of his early speed and his late stamina this year, a tough combination to overcome.
Best-case scenario: He ends up on the lead and gets brave.
No. 4: Danzig Moon
Morning-line odds: 15-to-1
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Things to like entering the Preakness: Performed credibly in the Derby, finishing fifth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths while recording a career-best Beyer Speed Figure.
Things not to like: Did not seriously challenge American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund in the stretch in the Derby. Also, Divining Rod was five lengths better than him in the Tampa Bay Derby in March.
Best-case scenario: Sits off a too-fast pace upfront and pounces.
No. 5: Tale of Verve
Morning-line odds: 30-to-1
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Things to like entering the Preakness: Stewart trained the Kentucky Derby runner-up in 2013 and 2014, with both hitting the board at big prices. Also, Tale of Verve has a win at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles.
Things not to like: No matter the speed figure, Tale of Verve simply does not look fast enough to seriously contend.
Best-case scenario: Fourth or fifth place.
No. 6: Bodhisattva
Morning-line odds: 20-to-1
Trainer: Jose Corrales
Jockey: Trevor McCarthy
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s the only horse in the field with a victory at Pimlico, capturing the 1 1/16-mile Federico Tesio Stakes in April.
Things not to like: In his lone try against graded-stakes competition in November, Bodhisattva was beaten 11 lengths by Frosted, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Also, Bodhisattva could be up against it from a pace standpoint — he’s been near the lead in recent races, but he’s going to have run a lot harder early to pull that off on Saturday.
Best-case scenario: He churns past tired horses to fill out the bottom of the trifecta or superfecta.
No. 7: Divining Rod
Morning-line odds: 12-to-1
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s well-rested, with five weeks off between his last race (a career-best effort in Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes) and the Preakness. In the Lexington, he bested the well-regarded Donworth by three lengths.
Things not to like: He could be compromised by the pace, as he’s likely to have to come from farther off the lead than he ever has in his career.
Best-case scenario: He launches a big run from mid-pack and passes the better-known (but perhaps weary) contenders in the stretch.
No. 8: Firing Line
Morning-line odds: 4-to-1
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Things to like entering the Preakness: Ran wonderfully in the Derby, stalking Dortmund, putting him away by two lengths but falling to American Pharoah in a one-length defeat. From this outside post, Stevens can give Firing Line a nice trip in the clear just off the pace.
Things not to like: He could not outrun American Pharoah in Louisville.
Best-case scenario: American Pharoah gets a less-than-ideal trip and Firing Line capitalizes
bY Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews
Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah could very well be less than even-money when he leaves the gate in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Baltimore’s Pimlico Race Course (6:18 p.m. ET, NBC).
Some will say this makes the 140th Preakness an unappealing betting race. Others, though, will step right up to disagree with their wallets.
Let’s suppose American Pharoah wins at 4-to-5 and pays $3.60. That’s an 80 percent return on a $2 bet.
Hey, your Saturday could be worse.
Other handicappers figure to see American Pharoah as an ideal single in multi-race wagers such as the Pick Four, which ends in the 1 3/16-mile Preakness and has a guaranteed $1.5 million pool. Still others will use him as a key in exotic wagers like the exacta and trifecta.
However, there will be bettors who will try to beat the favorite, perhaps through a simple win wager. Why, just two years ago, Orb lost at 70 cents on the dollar, with the winner, Oxbow, playing 15-to-1.
No matter how you approach the Preakness, here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field:
No. 1: American Pharoah
Morning-line odds: 4-to-5
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s the clear class of the field. He showed grit in the Derby, chasing down Firing Line and Dortmund under a strong drive. According to Baffert, American Pharoah has come out of the Derby in good order.
Things not to like: The No. 1 post position is not ideal. Since 1960, only two horses have won the Preakness breaking from Gate One. The bigger concern, however, might be American Pharoah racing for the third time in five weeks.
Best-case scenario: He breaks well, uses his tactical speed to get a good stalking position and proves best, just as he did in the Derby.
No. 2: Dortmund
Morning-line odds: 7-to-2
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Things to like entering the Preakness: Was a competitive third in the Kentucky Derby, losing by only three lengths in his first career defeat. The performance looks better after Baffert disclosed the colt had a brief colic scare one week before the Derby.
Things not to like: Set a moderate pace on the lead in the Derby and was still outrun by Firing Line and American Pharoah.
Best-case scenario: This time, he goes to the front — and never looks back.
No. 3: Mr. Z
Morning-line odds: 20-to-1
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Corey Nakatani
Things to like entering the Preakness: He has some decent back form, losing by just a head to Dortmund and a nose to Firing Line in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, including with Oxbow two years ago.
Things not to like: Mr. Z has lost 13 consecutive races. In the Derby, he finished 13th, beaten 15 1/2 lengths, albeit with a tough early trip. He has appeared to lose a little of his early speed and his late stamina this year, a tough combination to overcome.
Best-case scenario: He ends up on the lead and gets brave.
No. 4: Danzig Moon
Morning-line odds: 15-to-1
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Things to like entering the Preakness: Performed credibly in the Derby, finishing fifth, beaten 6 1/2 lengths while recording a career-best Beyer Speed Figure.
Things not to like: Did not seriously challenge American Pharoah, Firing Line and Dortmund in the stretch in the Derby. Also, Divining Rod was five lengths better than him in the Tampa Bay Derby in March.
Best-case scenario: Sits off a too-fast pace upfront and pounces.
No. 5: Tale of Verve
Morning-line odds: 30-to-1
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Things to like entering the Preakness: Stewart trained the Kentucky Derby runner-up in 2013 and 2014, with both hitting the board at big prices. Also, Tale of Verve has a win at the Preakness distance of 1 3/16 miles.
Things not to like: No matter the speed figure, Tale of Verve simply does not look fast enough to seriously contend.
Best-case scenario: Fourth or fifth place.
No. 6: Bodhisattva
Morning-line odds: 20-to-1
Trainer: Jose Corrales
Jockey: Trevor McCarthy
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s the only horse in the field with a victory at Pimlico, capturing the 1 1/16-mile Federico Tesio Stakes in April.
Things not to like: In his lone try against graded-stakes competition in November, Bodhisattva was beaten 11 lengths by Frosted, who finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby. Also, Bodhisattva could be up against it from a pace standpoint — he’s been near the lead in recent races, but he’s going to have run a lot harder early to pull that off on Saturday.
Best-case scenario: He churns past tired horses to fill out the bottom of the trifecta or superfecta.
No. 7: Divining Rod
Morning-line odds: 12-to-1
Trainer: Arnaud Delacour
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Things to like entering the Preakness: He’s well-rested, with five weeks off between his last race (a career-best effort in Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes) and the Preakness. In the Lexington, he bested the well-regarded Donworth by three lengths.
Things not to like: He could be compromised by the pace, as he’s likely to have to come from farther off the lead than he ever has in his career.
Best-case scenario: He launches a big run from mid-pack and passes the better-known (but perhaps weary) contenders in the stretch.
No. 8: Firing Line
Morning-line odds: 4-to-1
Trainer: Simon Callaghan
Jockey: Gary Stevens
Things to like entering the Preakness: Ran wonderfully in the Derby, stalking Dortmund, putting him away by two lengths but falling to American Pharoah in a one-length defeat. From this outside post, Stevens can give Firing Line a nice trip in the clear just off the pace.
Things not to like: He could not outrun American Pharoah in Louisville.
Best-case scenario: American Pharoah gets a less-than-ideal trip and Firing Line capitalizes
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Pimlico
RACE #13 - PIMLICO RACE COURSE - 6:18 PM EASTERN POST
The Preakness Stakes
9½ FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS GRADE I $1,500,000.00 PURSE
#1 AMERICAN PHAROAH
#8 FIRING LINE
#2 DORTMUND
#7 DIVINING ROD
Well folks ... examining the Kentucky Derby from 2 weekends ago, one finds #1 AMERICAN PHAROAH in 3rd place when the HUGE field of 20 entries passed today's distance of 9½ furlongs ... but the "qualifier" here is that HUGE field ... today we have just 7 entered, and this will once again be a battle of the top three finishers in "The Derby." #1 AMERICAN PHAROAH is indeed the class of the field .. he has won 5 straight in "POWER RUN FASHION" with this afternoon's rider Victor Espinoza in his irons. #8 FIRING LINE is 4-1 in the morning line, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in five straight, winning twice. #2 DORTMUND has also hit the board in five straight, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WIN" embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. He could EASILY win this race ... sooooooo ... perhaps a boxed, exotic wager is a possibility ... maybe including the 12-1 BOMB, #7 DIVINING ROD on your ticket ... if you are a "real gambler" ... if you place an ALL-WITH-ALL-WITH-ALL-WITH-ALL SUPERFECTA BOX ... it will cost you (I think) $1,680.00 ... just hope that my top 3 picks do not finish in "Kentucky Derby Order" ... if one of the "shots" hits the board in the top 3 ... you may have a chance ... or ... like me ... play it for $.10 !!!!
RACE #13 - PIMLICO RACE COURSE - 6:18 PM EASTERN POST
The Preakness Stakes
9½ FURLONGS DIRT THREE YEAR OLDS GRADE I $1,500,000.00 PURSE
#1 AMERICAN PHAROAH
#8 FIRING LINE
#2 DORTMUND
#7 DIVINING ROD
Well folks ... examining the Kentucky Derby from 2 weekends ago, one finds #1 AMERICAN PHAROAH in 3rd place when the HUGE field of 20 entries passed today's distance of 9½ furlongs ... but the "qualifier" here is that HUGE field ... today we have just 7 entered, and this will once again be a battle of the top three finishers in "The Derby." #1 AMERICAN PHAROAH is indeed the class of the field .. he has won 5 straight in "POWER RUN FASHION" with this afternoon's rider Victor Espinoza in his irons. #8 FIRING LINE is 4-1 in the morning line, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in five straight, winning twice. #2 DORTMUND has also hit the board in five straight, including a quartet of "POWER RUN WIN" embedded in this recent streak of racing consistency. He could EASILY win this race ... sooooooo ... perhaps a boxed, exotic wager is a possibility ... maybe including the 12-1 BOMB, #7 DIVINING ROD on your ticket ... if you are a "real gambler" ... if you place an ALL-WITH-ALL-WITH-ALL-WITH-ALL SUPERFECTA BOX ... it will cost you (I think) $1,680.00 ... just hope that my top 3 picks do not finish in "Kentucky Derby Order" ... if one of the "shots" hits the board in the top 3 ... you may have a chance ... or ... like me ... play it for $.10 !!!!
STEVE BYK
PIMLICO RACE COURSE
13th: Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #1 American Pharoah 4-5
Best Value: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1
Next Best: #2 Dortmund 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Firing Line 4-1
P5 Grid:
9: 1 (A), 7-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-13 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $68
P4 Grid:
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-13 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72
PIMLICO RACE COURSE
13th: Preakness (G1), 3yo, 9.5f (DD)
Most Likely: #1 American Pharoah 4-5
Best Value: #4 Danzig Moon 15-1
Next Best: #2 Dortmund 7-2
Exotics Use: #8 Firing Line 4-1
P5 Grid:
9: 1 (A), 7-10 (B), 3-6-8-9 (C)
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2 (A), 4-9 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-13 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), - (B), 2-4-7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 3x4x3x4x1 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $68
P4 Grid:
10: 7-9 (A), 4-5 (B), 1 (C)
11: 2-9 (A), 4 (B), 3-6-7 (C)
12: 10-12 (A), 4-13 (B), 1-9-11 (C)
13: 1 (A), 2-4 (B), 7-8 (C)
Simple (A+B): 4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72
Full (A/B/C): $72
GUS ALONSO
R13 - G1 Preakness Stakes
#1 American Pharoah (4-5) - Derby champ looks ready for 2nd Jewel and must bring his 'A' game to continue with Triple Crown aspirations. Victor should save some ground from the rail before angling out late.
#2 Dortmund (7-2) - Respectable Derby effort and he does not need the lead for his best. Expecting another strong perfomance.
#3 Mr. Z (20-1) - Lukas determined to get him in the starting gate. I'm leaning toward that the lemon has been squeezed too many times and he might need a break instead of going to Belmont.
#4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Solid Derby effort and could add some value underneath as others get tired late.
#5 Tale of Verve (20-1) - Connections adamant about getting him in here off a lonely maiden victory. A mid pack finish would be a success.
#6 Bodhisattva (20-1) - Local hope will find the waters very deep. Maybe will add some speed to this edition.
#7 Divining Rod (12-1) - Coming into this race in the right direction and looks versatile enough to crash the party.
#8 Firing Line (4-1) - Gutsy Derby effort that I'm thinking took some starch out of him coming back in two weeks.
Selections:
#7 Divining Rod (12-1)
#1 American Pharoah (4-5)
#2 Dortmund (7-2)
#4 Danzig Moon (15-1)
PK5 - 1 6 7 8 / 1 4 7 8 9 / 2 9 / 13 / 1 2 7 = $60 for $.50
PK4 - 1 4 5 7 8 9 / 2 9 / 2 9 11 13 / 1 2 7 = $72 for $.50
R13 - G1 Preakness Stakes
#1 American Pharoah (4-5) - Derby champ looks ready for 2nd Jewel and must bring his 'A' game to continue with Triple Crown aspirations. Victor should save some ground from the rail before angling out late.
#2 Dortmund (7-2) - Respectable Derby effort and he does not need the lead for his best. Expecting another strong perfomance.
#3 Mr. Z (20-1) - Lukas determined to get him in the starting gate. I'm leaning toward that the lemon has been squeezed too many times and he might need a break instead of going to Belmont.
#4 Danzig Moon (15-1) - Solid Derby effort and could add some value underneath as others get tired late.
#5 Tale of Verve (20-1) - Connections adamant about getting him in here off a lonely maiden victory. A mid pack finish would be a success.
#6 Bodhisattva (20-1) - Local hope will find the waters very deep. Maybe will add some speed to this edition.
#7 Divining Rod (12-1) - Coming into this race in the right direction and looks versatile enough to crash the party.
#8 Firing Line (4-1) - Gutsy Derby effort that I'm thinking took some starch out of him coming back in two weeks.
Selections:
#7 Divining Rod (12-1)
#1 American Pharoah (4-5)
#2 Dortmund (7-2)
#4 Danzig Moon (15-1)
PK5 - 1 6 7 8 / 1 4 7 8 9 / 2 9 / 13 / 1 2 7 = $60 for $.50
PK4 - 1 4 5 7 8 9 / 2 9 / 2 9 11 13 / 1 2 7 = $72 for $.50
Dave "The MeatMan" Scandaliato
Race #1: La Nina(#4) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 3 to 1. TURF ONLY!
Race #2: Regal Warrior(#2) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 10 to 1.
Race #3: Relentless Drive(#2) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #4: Force the Pass(#2) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 5 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #5: Happy My Way(#4) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 5 to 2.
Race #6: Lulu Island(#7) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #7: Bold Conquest(#5) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2.
Race #8: Loves Last Chance(#10) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 3 to 1.
Race #9: Emotional Kitten(#3) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 10 to 1. TURF ONLY!
Race #10: Gimme Da Lute(#7) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 3 to 1.
Race #11: Ageless(#2) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 5 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #12: Aripeka(#4) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 8 to 1. TURF ONLY!
The Preakness Stakes Race #13: American Pharoah(#1) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 4 to 5.
Race #14: Segovia(#9) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 5 to 1.
Race #1: La Nina(#4) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 3 to 1. TURF ONLY!
Race #2: Regal Warrior(#2) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 10 to 1.
Race #3: Relentless Drive(#2) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #4: Force the Pass(#2) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 5 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #5: Happy My Way(#4) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 5 to 2.
Race #6: Lulu Island(#7) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #7: Bold Conquest(#5) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 9 to 2.
Race #8: Loves Last Chance(#10) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 3 to 1.
Race #9: Emotional Kitten(#3) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 10 to 1. TURF ONLY!
Race #10: Gimme Da Lute(#7) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 3 to 1.
Race #11: Ageless(#2) BEST BET! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 5 to 2. TURF ONLY!
Race #12: Aripeka(#4) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 8 to 1. TURF ONLY!
The Preakness Stakes Race #13: American Pharoah(#1) BEST BET! Bet this horse WIN and PLACE. Morning line is 4 to 5.
Race #14: Segovia(#9) LONGSHOT ALERT! Bet this horse across the board WIN, PLACE and SHOW. Morning line is 5 to 1.
