Pre-season college football thread

[NYReb]

Last year we had an interesting and informative thread in the last couple of weeks leading up to the opening of college football season, and I don't see why we can't do it again this year.

Anything you would like to discuss, ask, edify, or contribute in any way -- like which winners we should be on early in the year -- will fit very nicely in this thread. Anything involving the upcoming college football season is appropriate.

One topic I'd like to bring up immediately is that of the first games being offered on TV this year. What can we say about USC and VT? Olympic has USC as a 16.5 point favorite. Will they cover that? Or are they overvalued simply because they are USC? I'm kinda leaning towards VT in this one. USC has to travel across the country. VT will feel right at home, and they are no slouches. Look what they did to Miami last year.

Other games of interest: should Utah be favored by 9 over A&M? That seems like a lot for a mid-major over a BSC conference team.

LSU is listed as 17 over Oregon St. Can this line be exploited? Again, I'm taking a long look at the underdog. What do you think?

Any thoughts on ND and BYU?

Miss St and Tulane? No spreads for these two yet.

Miss St might be a team of value this season. I closely follow recruiting in the SEC, and MSU has some amazingly good talent. Several of their starters were seriously wanted by other SEC schools. They have 5 Parade All-Americans (6 before RB Nick Turner got himself kicked off the team.) He's replaced by another Parade AA, Jerious Norwood. State's QB is a true sophomore who played his freshman season as a WR, which might seem like a real challege for him. Yet he was the Mississippi POY coming out of high school and is a terrific athlete. There is talent on both lines -- the OL has lost some weight over the summer, going from 340 to 360 to 310-315. They are meaner, leaner, and much quicker. LBs and the secondary are better than anyone might think. Not only that, Croom has them fired up and believing in themselves. So keep an eye on this team this season -- they could surprise.

An interesting early game for me is Ole Miss and Memphis. Memphis is currently about a 4 point underdog I believe. They've gotten a lot of hype this summer, which often leads to disappointment -- see Auburn last year. Ole Miss will not fall apart because Eli Manning is gone. New QB Michael Spurlock is an amazing athlete and one of the two fastest guys on the team. He can take off and run like few QBs can. Both lines will be improved this season, and the RBs will surprise. The Rebels are intently focused on Memphis. They will not overlook them this year. What do you think?

Please feel free to join in however you like. I hope to hear from many. I will moderate the thread, as I do all my threads, and I think we can cover a lot of interesting stuff in the days ahead.

Also, I'd like to hear from anyone who especially follows my plays. I've heard that some people do this, but I'd like to know who you are.

Okay, enough for now to start this off. I'm looking forward to comments from other posters.

Best of luck to everyone this upcoming season. I'm planning, of course, on making it my best ever. Last season I hit about 56% overall in college, and about 70% of my 10* specials. I'm looking forward to the challenge of topping those numbers. Only disappointment was a poor showing during the bowl season, but that was an aberration, as I've long been good with the bowls, and I predict a comeback there.

OK, guys, looking to hear from you.

 

[LSUpete]

Reb,

I like this thread, and will follow it's maturation as well.

I will be on Virginia Tech for one big reason....the media. The predominant opinion from the national media is that USC is king of the world and that Virginia Tech has internal problems. I believe they are wrong on BOTH points, and that Va. tech will cover and could possibly be a worthy money line wager.

LSU is going to have the best defense in college football history this season. For all of you objective posters that watched that defense last year, just wait until you see them this year. I seriously doubt that ANYONE in the country will be able to put more than 10 points on the Tigers' starters this year. As an alum, that makes me very happy, but as a degenerate gambler my money will be on Oregon State....if I can get 17 points or more. I think the bulk of points scored against LSU this year will be in garbage time, and with Oregon state's starting QB still playing late in the game, you can expect them to score late. Also, I think that with the development of a new QB, LSU will be running the piss out of the ball and playing it safe.

Reb, I think you're listening to the Mississippi media profess about Crooms too much, because Miss. State will SUCK out loud this year. EVERYONE will beat them by 21 points this year. Now if the line is higher than that, they may be worth a look.

I agree with you that Ole Miss will be the play against Memphis. Get on this game now, while the line is below 6, because the Rebs have some talent on offense.

GOOD LUCK to everyone this year.

 

[ElIguana]

Hey Reb & Pete. Good to see you both actively posting again. I don't have anything of value to add, no insights or inside information yet. But I do follow both of your picks in the SEC, did quite well with your information last fall.

Reb, your 10* picks were gold until bowl season last year, sure it won't happen again. And your insight on Mississippi State cashing in the season helped me clean house on their opponents their last 4 games. I think the last one of the year they were getting 27 points from Ole Miss and STILL didn't cover.

Pete, you called the Florida upset of LSU last season. This LSU defense is frighteningly talented and FAST....I just hope they keep their heads on straight and don't buy into the hype that they are invincible (see K-State vs. Oklahoma 2003).

I agree about VT looking like a good value at this point, but I won't go large on the game. USC scored a BUNCH of points last season after losing their Heisman trophy winner....it wouldn't surprise me to see a close game on Aug. 28, but it wouldn't surprise me to see USC put up 40-50 points, either. Maybe the over is the play, depending on where the total ends up.

I agree about Memphis--they are this year's Auburn, probably won't live up to the hype.

GL fellas.

 

[BigDaddyNole]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> LSU is going to have the best defense in college football history this season <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

come on Pete .... that's a MIGHTY lofty goal --- not saying that LSU won't have a great defense, but "best defense in college football history" ????

I will go on record as saying that they've probably got the best CB tandem in the country ....

 

[NYReb]

Pete, I look for vast improvement from Miss St. It's not only Croom, they have talent. They simply cashed it in last year when Sherril retired mid-season. As El Iguana mentioned, I advised everyone last year to throw as much money as possible on State's opponents during the last half of the year, including my 15* GOY on Bama against them, and we won and won and won. This year won't be different. They won't quit on Croom. And they have talent most people aren't aware of.

El Iguana, it's true, I had a collapse during bowl season, but that was very strange for me, as usually I am at my best during bowl season. Hope you have a great year this year.

Hey BigDaddy, how do you see the Noles this year? Personally, I think they have a chance to win the ACC and the National Championship. Any comments on the titantic matchup between them and Miami?

Anyway else have any ideas about FSU vs Miami? This is a game I am really looking forward to.

 

[DanTanna]

I believe Memphis has 4 or 5 starters out for disciplinary reasons. The Ole Miss/Memphis game will be a tough one. I think Ole Miss has talent, but anytime you lose a player like Eli, the rest of the team sometimes struggles to find the step-up guy. Memphis has one of the, if not THE best back in the country in Williams. I'd dare to say Winprine is a better QB right now than Spurlock at Ole Miss.

LSU's defense is going to be scary. Saban is the best defensive coach in college history

Too bad your boys have to come to Little Rock again this year.

 

[Scott4USC]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> One topic I'd like to bring up immediately is that of the first games being offered on TV this year. What can we say about USC and VT? Olympic has USC as a 16.5 point favorite. Will they cover that? Or are they overvalued simply because they are USC? I'm kinda leaning towards VT in this one. USC has to travel across the country. VT will feel right at home, and they are no slouches. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


I think USC might be overvalued. USC success this season is placed soley on the OL. If the OL gels then USC wins the NC. Otherwise USC could lose 1-2 games early and maybe 1 game late in season. USC lost players to graduation and then lost players throughout the off season. These are the players USC lost in the off-season who were counted on returning! USC lost Mike Williams (#1 WR), Winston Justice (#1 OL), Hancock (#1 FB), Byrd (#1 TE), Guenther (#3 TE). Why is USC unanimous favorites to win the title after losing all these players who were expected to star at their positions?

USC is very inexperienced on the OL. However, USC is extremely talented on the OL. So it is to be determined how coaches get this OL prepared for V-Tech. In practices so far, they have been doing a decent job run blocking but having some trouble pass blocking. I expect USC to POUND the ball especially with all the stud RB's on this team. The OL will average 330 pounds and all have mobility.

USC weakness on defense will be the DB's. I would consider the USC DB's to be experienced but average. NO LOCKDOWN CORNERS.

Nobody will be able to run against USC. That I can guarantee. The DL and LB's are awesome and have plenty of depth. 3-deep!

So you must ask yourself this. Will V-Tech be able to have a passing attack? If so, then take V-Tech + the points. I would look into their practice reports and see how Randall is doing. I do not think V-Tech has anybody electric on offense. I also recall Randall not being the best passing QB but he does have some mobility (not Vick type mobility).

As of right now, I think USC wins 31-10 (but plenty of more practices to be played). I have been extremely impressed with the practices and how intense the team is. I think USC may struggle on offense in the 1h, but USC will break away in the 2nd half. Taking V-Tech in the 1h and the UNDER in the 1h might be your best bet. USC also might go conservative and pound the ball early, especially since USC is going to have their best defense since Carroll took over. Expect a defensive type performance like you saw in the Rose Bowl but with better linebacking play.

A side note: V-Tech excels on special teams play, and USC has the #1 punter in the nation. The USC punter kicks the living crap out of the ball but he is a tad slow on getting the ball off. Plus USC uses the worst punting formation so I fear a punt block in this game. A punt block could determine if USC covers the spread or not. Maybe someone can find a prop play on punt blocks.

Another side note: This will be the first time Norm Chow will not be teaching his offense to a QB. Leinart knows the offense and expect USC not to be on an offensive learning curve like they have been the last 3 years.

Last side note: I would wait until the NCAA rules on Williams. If Williams returns I will expect the offense to be at full swing against V-Tech. If Williams is not allowed back or suspended, then it will take 2 quarters for the USC offense to click. With Williams USC scores over 30pts without Williams USC scores over 20pts. It does not necessarily mean Williams himself will score 2 TD's but he will create problems all over the field. He will allow other players to go one on one and some of these players cannot be guarded one on one. For example, Reggie Bush!

 

[NYReb]

Memphis at Ole Miss.

Dan, nice viewpoint. I understand that a good case can be made for going with Memphis. They have their strongest team in years, and have collected some real talent who are being well coached. However, they are not better than Ole Miss. The Rebels are at home and have a strong revenge motive. When team members have been asked this summer what game are they most looking forward to, without hesitation or exception they answered, "Memphis."

About Spurlock: Ole Miss had a QB before Eli by the name of Romaro Miller. He was an athletic sort, good arm, ran well, and was a 3-year starter, his senior year being Eli's freshman year. Well, Spurlock is a lot better than Miller, and would have been starting as a soph last year if Eli were not on campus.

Michael has been patient, understanding that it was Eli's team, but now as a junior he's ready to roll. He has a stronger arm than Manning! Eli would win in the consistency and accuracy categories, but he can't throw it as far as Spurlock can. Spurlock is also a dangerous runner, a 4.4 type who will shake up defenses once he turns up field. He can score on any play, one way or another. This will be an extremely dangerous offense who will get their points against anyone they play. Winprine might be a more polished QB in the season opener, but I'll bet Spurlock raises some eyebrows.

I follow SEC recruiting very closely, and I'd say the Rebels have the best OL in the SEC. Buckles and Johnson at guards are 4-year starters. Junior RT Tre Stallings was a high-school All American, like Buckles, and will be starting for the 3rd year. Junior center Chris Spencer, 6-4, 315, is the best of the bunch, incredibly strong, and will be picked high in the draft either this year or next. Junior LT Harris is the only 1st-year starter, yet, with the perfect tools to protect the QB, he is also a pro prospect.

The Ole Miss defense is the best it's been in over a decade -- especially the DL and secondary. There will be new starters at linebackers, but there are 2 seasoned 5th-year seniors, as well as super-talent among the youth. (Keep super soph Patrick Willis and freshman (MS POY) Gary Pack in mind. DT McKinley Boykin is as talented and as strong as any in the SEC. He throws OLs around. Remember his name.

WRs are fast, talented, and deep. Cutcliff coached teams will always have talented QBs, WRs, and OLs. Junior RB Vashon Pearson, explosive and fast, will be the best Ole Miss has had since Deuce. In other words, this team is loaded, and severely under-valued.

Cutcliffe seems to be buying into Bobby Bowden's theory regarding QB recruiting: get a QB every year, but get that GREAT QB every OTHER year. This way, you have a well-prepared junior to take over every two years. FSU has done this for years, except for the notable exception of Chris Rix, after a few strange things regarding QBs happened in Tallahassee. But that's another story. Anyway, Spurlock is coming in as a 4-year junior, and when he leaves super-recruit Robert Lane will be in the same position. They've got a good thing going at Ole Miss.

Ole Miss will be undervalued in their first few games. Public perception is placing too much importance on the departure of Manning. Eli was one of college football's greatest QBs, and will be star for the Giants for years, but his departure did not leave the cupboard bare. Cutcliffe has built a real program in Oxford, and there won't be any weak Rebel teams in the next few years at least. Keep an eye on them this year, especially the first few games. At this point I like them big over Memphis.

 

[BigDaddyNole]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by NY Reb:
Hey BigDaddy, how do you see the Noles this year? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
I have three main "concerns" heading into this season:
<UL TYPE=SQUARE>Chris Rix
Lack of studs/experience at DT
Jeff Bowden running the offense
[/list]


<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> Personally, I think they have a chance to win the ACC and the National Championship. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
a chance ... but there are probably about 7-8 schools with a LEGIT chance to win it all

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Any comments on the titantic matchup between them and Miami? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
Yeah ... I just hope it doesn't come down to us having to make a kick at the end of the game

 

[NYReb]

I think Chris Rix will have a breakout year. Talent-wise, he is right up there with the best QBs in college, and he will probably be drafted highly because of his skills. I predict that this is his breakout year...that FSU will defeat Miami...win the ACC...and compete for the NC.

Speaking of Miami, the Noles didn't like Brock Berlin as a Gator, and they don't like him any more as a Hurricane. Don't think he will find the going easy against the Nole defense. You might worry about FSU's DTs, but Travis Johnson will be in the pros next year. He is a good one.

Will USC cover against VT -- or will it be a tight game?

 

[BigDaddyNole]

Travis came to Tally with MUCH billing and accolades .... it's up to him to step it up and start dominating the D-line ----- he won't have Dockett around to take on double teams and be a focal part of the opponent's plans

the 'Noles just need to see more guys step up on the D-line ...not only at DT, but across the board

the secondary will be fine ... but they need PRESSURE up front (like any other defense) --- also think that the group of LBers we've got coming in to fill vacated spots could/SHOULD be better than those who left (as a unit)

 

[NYReb]

Since I have long specialized in the SEC, ACC, C-USA, and Big East, the shakeups of the latter three conferences have been very fascinating for me. When teams shift conferences, a whole bunch of dynamics are shifted as well.

The ACC got stronger while the Big East got weaker and C-USA will fall a little next year. I like the idea of Central Florida and Marshall joining C-USA. That will bring on some interesting new matchups. Otherwise, we'd have no idea how either of them might match up against Southern Miss or Memphis, for example.

Memphis was scary last year and will have a real football team this year. Albert Means at 6-4 and 330 will be a DT worth watching. Most by now know of DeAngelo Williams at RB. I remember a heated recruiting battle between Memphis and Ole Miss for this exceptional talent, and Memphis won this one. Danny Wimprine will be a senior at QB, and should look very good in most of his games. The only problem with Memphis, from a handicapping POV, is that they aren't going to surprise anyone, including the oddsmakers. In fact, the preseason publicity might backfire on them. We'll get a really good idea how talented they actually are after they play Ole Miss. If they can hang with the Rebels in Oxford, then they'll probably have a really good year. Still, they could be overpriced more often than not, at least in the beginning.

Southern Miss might be down a little this season, at least in the beginning of the year. They don't have a lot of big-play offensive threats, and I don't see them as being as solid defensively either. I might be wrong -- wouldn't be the first time -- but they are a little light in both lines. Mississippi is not a logical state to host 3 D-1 football programs, and USM gets the worst of it when it comes to recruiting. They've maintained a masterful program under the circumstances.

It might take even longer to figure out Auburn and Alabama. Bama has a strange combination of highly recruited players and little depth. Injuries, or the lack of them, could determine how the season goes. And who knows what's happening with Auburn? If they don't have a dominating rushing game this season, then who can be depended on for anything? We'll see how dominant their defense can be -- and that will tell a large part of the story.

More later. Comments are more than welcome -- anything about college football.

 

[ElIguana]

FSU vs. Miami

Still a ways off, but I am leaning toward taking the dog (whichever team it ends up being). It seems like these 2 teams always go down to the wire with the game being decided by less than a field goal. Remember the Orange Bowl last year?

Both teams will be jacked, both quarterbacks can be awesome or can lay an egg....no one knows for sure what will happen. I predict a tight game, and I will take the points. It should be a GREAT Monday night game regardless of the outcome.

 

[NYReb]

Agree that it will be a great game. Spread right now on Games of the Year (Carib) is FSU -1.5. I am leaning towards FSU, who should win it this year.

 

The line right now is Miami Fl by -2. You can get official lines at betroyal.com

 

A couple of games I like right now but I will wait on potential injuries, etc.

Cincinnati +17
Northwestern +8.5 and whatever the over is.
Virginia -14
UAB -12.5
Cal -11
Oklahoma State +2.5
Bowling Green +35.5
Navy -7

 

[ElIguana]

Bowling Green +35.5!

I watched BG play the Buckeyes within 7 points last year, quite impressive. 5 TDs seems like a safe bet......but OU and Jason "I won the frigging Heisman and no one respects me" White will want to make a statement in come-out game. Stoops will not pile-on, however, will likely pull starters in 3rd quarter.

OU will likely put 50+ on the board, especially if they actually have a running game this year to keep defenses honest and open up some receivers. So the question is: Can BG score 3 TDs on the Sooners' #2s, #3s, #4s in 2nd half to cover?

Not sure what to do at this point, but you gotta love starting a game with a 5 TD lead if you take the dog!

 

[LSUpete]

Bob Stoops is a cunt.

He will pile it on this team, and you can bet on that. They'll have a 35 point lead midway throught he second quarter.

 

[NYReb]

Omaha, I'm not quite sure what you mean by an official line, and I haven't checked out Betroyal to see, but I do know that Carib has a line that you can actually bet on that is FSU -1.5. They also have LSU -17. I'm really wanting to grab those points and go with Oregon St. I just wonder if it will go higher. Anyone have any idea?

 

[NYReb]

Omaha, I just went to BetRoyal, and I didn't see any lines posted at all. Where are they? Or do you have to be a client to see them?

To get Carib's games of the year, you go to college football futures, and scroll down until you come to the games. You can bet on games throughout the year if you have future insight on any of them.

I bet two of these games before the season started last year. One was FSU over Notre Dame and the other was Ole Miss over Miss St. Not only did both games win easily, but the line I got before the season gave me about 7 extra points on both games than I would have gotten at the time.