I think it is a great question....
I've been thinking about this question and it has been ruminating in my mind.... I posted this in another thread tonight but it always and ever will be first an answer to your question and it is one of the BIG questions we face as wagerers:
Weird shit does not hurt the dog team EVER. NEVER. OK...almost never. Weird shit from bad calls to shitty weird weather to whatever you can dream...NEVER hurts the dog team. They are the dog team. Weird hops bounces weather refs umps and all that can only hurt the favorite team. They were to win anyway, right? The DOG makes it on weirdness and if weirdness hurts their cause, they were going to lose anyway:
Accounting?
Weird shit happens to dog team negative: zero meaning
Weird shit happens to dog team positive: give it unitary meaning of +1
Weird shit happens to Favorite team positive: zero meaning
Weird shit happens to Fav team negative: give it unitary meaning of -1
Who gets the benefit of weird shit happening in the above? Well, say each of the above four events happen in a game...comon and just say: underdog is +2 on our meter!!! DO YOU SEE? Yes....I know you do.
Now, weird shit is random, isn't it? Yes, generally so. The weird shit we are just floored by is generally random. YET over the course of your and my wagering life this random shit means that the dog is helped much more than the favorite by random shit. You KNOW it is true and I didn't prove anything but I just gave such a great demonstration. I am going to copy this and save it for future use and review.
So random shit hurts the favorite and helps the dog, nearly invariably.
TULSA<!-- / message -->