We had quite a debate about "key" numbers and how pushes on these numbers were significant in trying to figure out betting strategies.
I stated back then that a -3 number was no where near as significant as people made it out to be. And that worrying about it, and/or buying of it was simply not a good play to make.
Of course the usual arguments and bantering went on and on. And of course last year was used as the weapon of choice since 12 games did in fact land right on that number of 3.
Well I said this preseason that I expected that to drop off severely this year. And that pushes on that spread would be very minimal. I believe I said 5 or 6 would hit.
Well we just passed week 10 and there have been two games that landed on 3 that closed at 3. In all games this year there have only been 3 pushes in total. So basically a banner year in avoiding ties.
There are a lot of factors that have gone into this. First and foremost the way dogs have been winning Su is a major reason. Another is simply because the line doesn't mean anything. It is just a way to get people to either lay off the game, or for books to rationalize gouging a little more money out of you. Since you never see -3 -110 anywhere, it is always -3 -115;-120; even -140 in some cases. So a way for the books to tweek the odds to get both more vig, and keep people from betting a dog with the pyschological half point. It is so fuuny, how a guy will play a dog +3.5 -115, but won't play the same dog +3 +110. Bascially that is a 25 cent half point, that 9 out of 10 games (on a 20 year ave) doesn't mean dick.
I haven't bothered to see how many games have closed at -3 this year. But I would say there have been 40 at least. SO 2 of 40 is not a very big percentage. That is why when we we debating this way back when, using past data as fact was tainted, because in the real world the results fluctuate.
But when seeing that the previuos year an inordinate amount of pushes happened, it is actually more correct to assume that the following year the reverse would be true.
For the most part all things try to reach a 50/50 split. But due to parity and free agency and injury, the sides are a lot more difficult to determine. So that ine of thinking doesn't always work when trying to make the conclusion that dogs have been covering steadily, the lines will be adjusted, so that the faves will "catch up".
This USED to be true. But not anymore. That is why I went into a skid the past few weeks. Simply put, the "dogs" are actually better teams and win SU these days. Even when the "better" team is favored, it hasn't always been that way this year.
Case in point...
Dogs this year in 142 game are 81-54-3 ATS, with 4 Pk em games intermixed.
So a very huge avantage for the dogs.
But when looking for a "pattern" of "bad linemaking" We see it isn't the case as there is an exact 71-71 split for over and unders. That is as good as it gets. So the lines are not wrong, just the teams have not cooperated.
Now looking at SU winners in regards to ATS covers. I have long said, if you can pickthe SU winner, you will get the cover. Historically 17% of the time the line does not even factor into a game. Well this year thus far of the 142 games played, the SU winner was 113-26-3 ATS. So that is right in line with the expected 83% rate we generaly see.
So this year has held true to a lot of things that could have been expected. But it has also broken the mold in regards to a lot of other traditonal thinking.
When you can blindly bet dogs and collect at exactly a 60% rate there is something wrong. But the books have done everything they can to get the "better" teams to win. They have posted ridiculously low numbers for the most part, but the dogs continue to win SU. And flip flopping sides would not be smart, as for example how many people would have bet Oak last night had they been a fave? As it was I thought the 6 points was very low considering all the factors going into that game. So the books cannot put up numbers that are completely off. Besides, they actullay do better when dogs cover anyways. So they are getting the best of both worlds. They are posting short numbers to keep people betting the faves, and they are still getting the dogs to win SU.
I stated back then that a -3 number was no where near as significant as people made it out to be. And that worrying about it, and/or buying of it was simply not a good play to make.
Of course the usual arguments and bantering went on and on. And of course last year was used as the weapon of choice since 12 games did in fact land right on that number of 3.
Well I said this preseason that I expected that to drop off severely this year. And that pushes on that spread would be very minimal. I believe I said 5 or 6 would hit.
Well we just passed week 10 and there have been two games that landed on 3 that closed at 3. In all games this year there have only been 3 pushes in total. So basically a banner year in avoiding ties.
There are a lot of factors that have gone into this. First and foremost the way dogs have been winning Su is a major reason. Another is simply because the line doesn't mean anything. It is just a way to get people to either lay off the game, or for books to rationalize gouging a little more money out of you. Since you never see -3 -110 anywhere, it is always -3 -115;-120; even -140 in some cases. So a way for the books to tweek the odds to get both more vig, and keep people from betting a dog with the pyschological half point. It is so fuuny, how a guy will play a dog +3.5 -115, but won't play the same dog +3 +110. Bascially that is a 25 cent half point, that 9 out of 10 games (on a 20 year ave) doesn't mean dick.
I haven't bothered to see how many games have closed at -3 this year. But I would say there have been 40 at least. SO 2 of 40 is not a very big percentage. That is why when we we debating this way back when, using past data as fact was tainted, because in the real world the results fluctuate.
But when seeing that the previuos year an inordinate amount of pushes happened, it is actually more correct to assume that the following year the reverse would be true.
For the most part all things try to reach a 50/50 split. But due to parity and free agency and injury, the sides are a lot more difficult to determine. So that ine of thinking doesn't always work when trying to make the conclusion that dogs have been covering steadily, the lines will be adjusted, so that the faves will "catch up".
This USED to be true. But not anymore. That is why I went into a skid the past few weeks. Simply put, the "dogs" are actually better teams and win SU these days. Even when the "better" team is favored, it hasn't always been that way this year.
Case in point...
Dogs this year in 142 game are 81-54-3 ATS, with 4 Pk em games intermixed.
So a very huge avantage for the dogs.
But when looking for a "pattern" of "bad linemaking" We see it isn't the case as there is an exact 71-71 split for over and unders. That is as good as it gets. So the lines are not wrong, just the teams have not cooperated.
Now looking at SU winners in regards to ATS covers. I have long said, if you can pickthe SU winner, you will get the cover. Historically 17% of the time the line does not even factor into a game. Well this year thus far of the 142 games played, the SU winner was 113-26-3 ATS. So that is right in line with the expected 83% rate we generaly see.
So this year has held true to a lot of things that could have been expected. But it has also broken the mold in regards to a lot of other traditonal thinking.
When you can blindly bet dogs and collect at exactly a 60% rate there is something wrong. But the books have done everything they can to get the "better" teams to win. They have posted ridiculously low numbers for the most part, but the dogs continue to win SU. And flip flopping sides would not be smart, as for example how many people would have bet Oak last night had they been a fave? As it was I thought the 6 points was very low considering all the factors going into that game. So the books cannot put up numbers that are completely off. Besides, they actullay do better when dogs cover anyways. So they are getting the best of both worlds. They are posting short numbers to keep people betting the faves, and they are still getting the dogs to win SU.
