My card:
Over 10' penalties
I got +110 (BM), I see it as high as -125 at some houses (Heritage.)
I love the penalty prop because you have action on every play. Andy's guys are usually well-disciplined so I don't like using Overs for this prop with the Chiefs. They had just 3 vs Phil last year (Phil had 6; combined for 1' < than this year's #) but a freakish 11 vs TB in 2020.
Vs SF in 2019 they only had 4 (SF had 5, again 1' < this year's #.)
Under seems to be the way to go in this one, but Overs are much more fun to root for while watching, and for me the SB is about fun, with a few props in play.
The # of players to throw a pass Over 1'
Looking for Andy to put in a trick play using someone other than Mahomes to toss a pass, or either QB to get TKO'd and have to sit out a few plays (nothing serious obviously, I'm not a sadist, it's just a bet after all.)
Shortest TD Under 1'
Looking for Pacheco or McCaffrey to bring that one home (a pass interference or holding penalty in the end zone wouldn't hurt, puts me at the one yard line with a chance to hit this prop and add to my Over 10' prop too.)
Gray Over 13' receiving yards
Looking for the SF D to focus on Kelsey and Rice obviously, and Andy to use Gray a couple times to take advantage of that.
Pacheco over 66' rushing yards
If KC is winning at halftime this prop is very solid, if they're not I still like the odds that he can break off at least one long one to make this easy to hit.
Total fourth down conversions over 1'
Q1 receiving yards by Aiyuk under 14'
I think San Fran will look to get some of their other options going early, Aiyuk is an afterthought. Hoping KC defense can shut San Fran down on the first possession and hopefully a long possession for the KC offense to get me through the first quarter.
The # of Chiefs to have a reception, Over 7'
Here are some stats on targets/receivers to catch a pass:
Vs Bal, 8/7; vs Buf 8/7; vs Mia 9/8
LY's SB 9/7; SB vs TB 8/8
Small snapshot of recent/similar games, and only 2 of the 5 hit >7' I need here, but all games had the # of targets I need, and what the hell, these prop bets aren't standard investment plays, small $, just having some fun with games within the game, keeping track of the #'s I need to get a W.
Good luck with your props today, enjoy the game.
Over 10' penalties
I got +110 (BM), I see it as high as -125 at some houses (Heritage.)
I love the penalty prop because you have action on every play. Andy's guys are usually well-disciplined so I don't like using Overs for this prop with the Chiefs. They had just 3 vs Phil last year (Phil had 6; combined for 1' < than this year's #) but a freakish 11 vs TB in 2020.
Vs SF in 2019 they only had 4 (SF had 5, again 1' < this year's #.)
Under seems to be the way to go in this one, but Overs are much more fun to root for while watching, and for me the SB is about fun, with a few props in play.
The # of players to throw a pass Over 1'
Looking for Andy to put in a trick play using someone other than Mahomes to toss a pass, or either QB to get TKO'd and have to sit out a few plays (nothing serious obviously, I'm not a sadist, it's just a bet after all.)
Shortest TD Under 1'
Looking for Pacheco or McCaffrey to bring that one home (a pass interference or holding penalty in the end zone wouldn't hurt, puts me at the one yard line with a chance to hit this prop and add to my Over 10' prop too.)
Gray Over 13' receiving yards
Looking for the SF D to focus on Kelsey and Rice obviously, and Andy to use Gray a couple times to take advantage of that.
Pacheco over 66' rushing yards
If KC is winning at halftime this prop is very solid, if they're not I still like the odds that he can break off at least one long one to make this easy to hit.
Total fourth down conversions over 1'
Q1 receiving yards by Aiyuk under 14'
I think San Fran will look to get some of their other options going early, Aiyuk is an afterthought. Hoping KC defense can shut San Fran down on the first possession and hopefully a long possession for the KC offense to get me through the first quarter.
The # of Chiefs to have a reception, Over 7'
Here are some stats on targets/receivers to catch a pass:
Vs Bal, 8/7; vs Buf 8/7; vs Mia 9/8
LY's SB 9/7; SB vs TB 8/8
Small snapshot of recent/similar games, and only 2 of the 5 hit >7' I need here, but all games had the # of targets I need, and what the hell, these prop bets aren't standard investment plays, small $, just having some fun with games within the game, keeping track of the #'s I need to get a W.
Good luck with your props today, enjoy the game.
Over on both QB's rushing yards. Purdy 13.5 and Mahommes 25.5. I figure that Warner or another SF LB will be chasing Kelce around allowing Mahommes some running lanes. Purdy's OL has been a little iffy at times, he ran more in the last 2 games, and he's more mobile than some think. Mostly, it's the last game, and designed QB run plays are more likely...the whole playbook, and more, will be on display.
