saw a couple up on espn insider but neither offered at my books.... here are their writeups:
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]Cardale Jones rushing yards: 42.5 (O/U -110)
Jones opened eyes on New Year's Day on one particular play: a 27-yard rush that showcased both his athleticism and ability to finish a run, bowling over a defender inside the Alabama red zone to set up a touchdown two plays later. Jones' opponent was no slouch defensively, ranking 15th in the country in defensive efficiency. Compare that to Oregon's rank (46th), and it's tempting to assume Jones could be set up for rushing success against the Ducks defense, but dig a little deeper. Oregon's defensive efficiency rank jumps from 46th to 12th in the country on QB rush plays (which include sacks), while Alabama's efficiency drops to 46th on those plays. Oregon gets sacks on 6 percent of pass plays this season (same as Alabama), but Jones' Buckeyes led for the last 27 minutes of the semifinal, and he only threw 11 passes in the second half (but was still sacked twice). If Oregon performs the way Vegas thinks it will (O/U 41 points), expect Jones to throw more (and run less), all while putting him at risk for more sacks.
The play: Under
Royce Freeman rushing yards: 92.5 (O/U -110)
In his last nine games, Freeman has averaged 110.8 rush yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush. These games came against eight Pac-12 schools and Florida State (the only school to hold him below 92.5 rush yards). Those schools averaged a defensive rushing efficiency rank of 60th in the country on non-quarterback running plays, while Ohio State ranks 89th. On non-quarterback rushes, Ohio State is allowing an average of almost a half-yard more per rush (5.0) than those nine teams Freeman was successful against (4.6).
Freeman had this success against schools who (mostly) have seen the Oregon offense before. Consider also that the Buckeyes have allowed 53 rushes by non-quarterbacks to gain at least 10 yards, tied for 76th in the country. The high number of 10-plus yard rushes allowed leaves Ohio State reliant on second-level tackling, something that will be harder to do effectively if the Ducks offense spreads the Buckeyes defense too thin. The size and speed combination Freeman possesses will give Ohio State big problems if the Buckeyes' game plan focuses too much on slowing Mariota.
The play: OVER
[h=3]Prop bets[/h]Cardale Jones rushing yards: 42.5 (O/U -110)
Jones opened eyes on New Year's Day on one particular play: a 27-yard rush that showcased both his athleticism and ability to finish a run, bowling over a defender inside the Alabama red zone to set up a touchdown two plays later. Jones' opponent was no slouch defensively, ranking 15th in the country in defensive efficiency. Compare that to Oregon's rank (46th), and it's tempting to assume Jones could be set up for rushing success against the Ducks defense, but dig a little deeper. Oregon's defensive efficiency rank jumps from 46th to 12th in the country on QB rush plays (which include sacks), while Alabama's efficiency drops to 46th on those plays. Oregon gets sacks on 6 percent of pass plays this season (same as Alabama), but Jones' Buckeyes led for the last 27 minutes of the semifinal, and he only threw 11 passes in the second half (but was still sacked twice). If Oregon performs the way Vegas thinks it will (O/U 41 points), expect Jones to throw more (and run less), all while putting him at risk for more sacks.
The play: Under
Royce Freeman rushing yards: 92.5 (O/U -110)
In his last nine games, Freeman has averaged 110.8 rush yards per game on 5.7 yards per rush. These games came against eight Pac-12 schools and Florida State (the only school to hold him below 92.5 rush yards). Those schools averaged a defensive rushing efficiency rank of 60th in the country on non-quarterback running plays, while Ohio State ranks 89th. On non-quarterback rushes, Ohio State is allowing an average of almost a half-yard more per rush (5.0) than those nine teams Freeman was successful against (4.6).
Freeman had this success against schools who (mostly) have seen the Oregon offense before. Consider also that the Buckeyes have allowed 53 rushes by non-quarterbacks to gain at least 10 yards, tied for 76th in the country. The high number of 10-plus yard rushes allowed leaves Ohio State reliant on second-level tackling, something that will be harder to do effectively if the Ducks offense spreads the Buckeyes defense too thin. The size and speed combination Freeman possesses will give Ohio State big problems if the Buckeyes' game plan focuses too much on slowing Mariota.
The play: OVER
