Possible Money Maker....

[BigDon]

Correct me if i am wrong. Penn State is 4-0 ATS this year.

I do not recall a team going 12-0 ATS for a season.

I am thinking put 1 unit on Illinois this week and if it loses go against Penn State on thier next game and and go 2 units against them. so on and so on until you cash.....

odds are you will cash soon...... IT IS A CHASE BUT 4 GAMES ARE OUT OF THE WAY. Thoughts ????
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[Furmanski]

Kansas was 11-0 ATS last year until the Missouri game...

Finished 12-1 ATS.

 

[BigDon]

good point furmanski. i am thinking penn state is a higher profile team that a lot of backers bet on.....

 

[Aflacc]

Possible Money Maker....

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Correct me if i am wrong. Penn State is 4-0 ATS this year.

I do not recall a team going 12-0 ATS for a season.

I am thinking put 1 unit on Illinois this week and if it loses go against Penn State on thier next game and and go 2 units against them. so on and so on until you cash.....

odds are you will cash soon...... IT IS A CHASE BUT 4 GAMES ARE OUT OF THE WAY. Thoughts ????

 

[Aflacc]

Bet like that and you can lose your house. I Seen this. Seen ppl bet like this in the NFL and the Nba and lost 18 straight. Just a thought.

 

[Aflacc]

Myself is if they are on a winning streak bet on them. When they lose you only lose once but you win many times. Don't play catch up trying to double or triple your bet.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Myself is if they are on a winning streak bet on them. When they lose you only lose once but you win many times. Don't play catch up trying to double or triple your bet.

That's much smarter that a Martingale betting system (which is what it's called when you keep doubling your bet after a loss on the assumption sooner or later you'll win).

A Martingale system will eventually pay off in theory, but in reality you may soon run up against betting limits or break your own budget. As an example lets use last year's Kansas team. The oddsmakers were slow to catch up to the Jayhawks, but midway through the season the lines on KU were very large. Still they kept covering. Not until the team's 11th game against a D-I opponent were they an ATS loser.

Assuming a bettor had started putting $50 against the Jayhawks after their 4th D-I win, here's how the betting progression would have shaped up:

Game 5: $50 - L
Game 6: $100 - L
Game 7: $200 - L
Game 8: $400 - L
Game 9: $800 - L
Game 10: $1600 - L
Game 11: $3200 - WIN

In total $6350 would have been risked for a $50 profit. And that's assuming the bettor had 3 grand on hand to bet that last game and that his book would take a bet of that size.

The laws of probability say eventually you'll win, but it's a little bit like the old piece of advice regarding investing in the stock market: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

 

[krk1030]

If you want to do something like that, save it for basketball.

 

[LEYKIS101]

Ohio State was undefeated ATS in Eddie George's senior year, until their last regular season game vs Michigan. Likely PSU will fail sometime ATS, but I wouldnt think this would be a great time to start betting against them.

 

[smartmoneyfollower]

I cant remeber the team but I do remeber a team going ATS all but one game, and Tulane was cover machine in the day with Shawn King

 

[Preussen]

Assuming a bettor had started putting $50 against the Jayhawks after their 4th D-I win, here's how the betting progression would have shaped up:

Game 5: $50 - L
Game 6: $100 - L
Game 7: $200 - L
Game 8: $400 - L
Game 9: $800 - L
Game 10: $1600 - L
Game 11: $3200 - WIN

In total $6350 would have been risked for a $50 profit.

You forgot the juice. Assuming you lay the regular -110, the bet amounts are actually:

G5: $55
G6: $115
G7: $242
G8: $508
G9: $1067
G10: $2241
G11: $4705

That's a total of $8933 risked for a $50 profit, which is not even guaranteed.

 

[RDTrains]

Not exactly the same but you get the point, in '05 Texas went 12-0 Over for every reg season game and then went Over for the Rose Bowl against USC.

 

[billbeater]

i like the Illini play here, regardless of any ats numbers

 

[YourAllAmerican]

You forgot the juice. Assuming you lay the regular -110, the bet amounts are actually:

G5: $55
G6: $115
G7: $242
G8: $508
G9: $1067
G10: $2241
G11: $4705

That's a total of $8933 risked for a $50 profit, which is not even guaranteed.

Good point. It'd only take two or three losing games before doubling the bet won't be enough to generate a profit because of the juice.