Possible expansion scenario....

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[FONT=Roboto !important]Saw this on a Clemson board

Big 12 East
Clemson
FSU
Miami
Georgia Tech
Louisville
Notre Dame
West Virginia
Iowa State

Big 12 West
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas Tech
TCU
Baylor
Kansas State
Kansas

Play 8 conference games, 1 cross divisional game. Alternate championship game between Dallas and Charlotte. Does Big 12 have a network? If not these teams with these fanbases will bring in some money. We are going to have to do something. We can't lose 12 million a year for an extended period of time or we are going to get left in the dust.


Thoughts???


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I think something will happen after these sec numbers came out.....sec numbers will go higher next year with the big12/sec bowl, and sec getting more carriage and those numbers were not for a full year...I just think the above is very interesting scenario....of course the others unc, duke uv a etc go to sec, big...
 

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Since I enjoy this topic, I'll play. Notre Dame not going to happen. They have the NBC contract plus independence allows them to keep USC, Navy and Stanford. Those are untouchable rivalries, especially for west coast exposure. Theyve already dimished ties with the Big Ten with a 5 game ACC schedule. 9 games makes it impossible. Texas has the ESPN contract. Given that ESPN would likely be a big part of tier 1 rights, this might be overcome. However, Texas has guaranteed money and they dont think like you and I, so its hard to tell. I tend to think the favor independence. I dont think they want to be in a league with other programs that wont give in to their supreme existance (miami, fsu)
 

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The 2 teams I see (and have heard/read about) joining the SEC at some point is Va Tech and NCST.

It gives the SEC the remaining southern states, give the SEC the North Carolina market....and adds Virginia and the DC Metro area, which is more than 8 million households.

I'd like to see the ACC break up, but the big issue is the Tobacco Road teams (UNC, Duke, Wake Forest). They all want to stay together....and NC State has always been the step child in that mix. It would be like Texas A&M telling Texas to F off (when they joined the SEC), but on a smaller scale.
 

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Does the SEC have any interest in FSU? I think Va Tech is obvious and NCST, but as mentioned they are linked to UNC, Duke, Wake who could very well stay bound by bball.

The Big Ten has coveted Ga Tech, UNC and Virginia. I think Virginia no longer does anything for the confetence, Maryland already taps them into the area. UNC out, same reason for SEC. That leaves Ga Tech and another team.
 

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Not sure how viable FSU to Big Ten is, but I like it more than BC or some northern team. I think FSU would jump at the numbers that are projected to the SEC and Big Ten. The Big Ten contract is up in two years. Is there a chance this ball gets rolling again next year? I wouldnt be surprised.
 

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FSU does nothing for the SEC. Unless they expand beyond 16 teams it's Va Tech and NC State.
 

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I think sec goes after unc first...if they say no, then it would be ncst...I don't think sec wants fsu or they would of took them last go around...nd will be forced to join some where down the road...
 

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I agree with RLR that more than likely Notre Dame won't happen. Texas would be borderline, but outside of their state, I don't think they even garner the ratings of OU. So independence could be a dicey situation for UT if their program continues to stay down. I've even heard ideas bantered around about forming a conference of Independent teams consisting of Texas, ND, BYU, Army and whoever else willing to come in. Maybe some of the AAC teams or Boise St? It's kind of a wild idea, but you never know.

If the Big 12 East/West ever was to happen, you know the conference that is going to be left out in the cold. It's the Pac-12. Their probably crossing their fingers it never happens. BigJunkDaddy keeps beating his chest about the big bad Pac-12, but in fact they are in the same boat as the ACC. If the PAC wasn't protected by it's geography, they would be targets in realignment. The Big 12 is in the ideal part of the country. They are centralized enough to where they could potentially join up with anybody.

The Pac-12 does have the biggest potential to beat everyone in their TV deals (except for the Big 10 because of their Tier 1 & 2 deal). But they also have the biggest bust potential. They own all of their TV rights, which is why they didn't take UT in the big Pac-12/Big 12 deal they proposed a few years ago. And from what I understand they just buy back from ESPN and Fox. If their Tier 3 was picked up, and they expanded properly, they would have a huge amount of cash flow. Unfortunately they aren't doing well in negotiations. And unfortunately for the PAC, there isn't that much interest in collegiate sports like there is in SEC country. The reason the PAC network hasn't taken off is because no one wants it. It's even hard for them to sell it in PAC country. Otherwise, it would be flourishing like the SEC and Big 10 networks. Like I said, the only thing that has kept the PAC from being picked apart in realignment is geography. It's really surprising to me (so far) that they haven't capitalized on the LA market at all, which is pretty sad considering the number of TV sets we are talking about.

Something tells me things will get better for the Pac-12. It's way too early to kick dirt on them. When they add DirecTV the revenue should shoot up quite a bit for each school. It took the Big 10 a few years for their national carriage to take off. So it could be that way for the PAC. The SEC and the BIG are going to end up blowing the doors off the PAC and Big 12 going forward. The PAC is set up to compete with them if things turn up. It would help if they could somehow produce a national title team. But at any rate, they will get more and more money as playoff revenues continue to grow. The trouble with the Big 12 is they are fairly locked in. I don't think things will get that much better for them. But the geography is perfect for any kind of realignment or conference musical chairs.

By the way, I'm not hatin' just statin' with the PAC situation. I personally love the conference and would have liked OU and a few other Big 12 teams go in for a joint venture with the Pac-12. But there was two mistakes made in that Pac-12/Big 12 realignment offer the first time around. Texas wouldn't give up their network, and The Pac-12 wouldn't take OU if they had to take other Big 12 schools with them minus Texas. They really wanted Texas and OU specifically or no deal. The PAC could rue the day they refused to take OU and Okie Lite together. Just think how different things could have been today. If OU and all of the other power teams in the conference move eastward (like I think they could) the Pac-12 will be stuck with 12 teams because there really isn't anybody else left out there that is on the Power 5 level except BYU and Boise. And in the past the PAC has expressed zero interest in these two schools.
 

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GS, good points. Expansion from this point on is about tv sets. And I too think the Pac 12 has a good chance of not expanding. They have 11 million subscriptions and with college sports apathy in the region, adding just any tv market (vegas or santa fe/albaq) isnt a given success. It was OU and Tx or at least the OK schools. The DirecTv addition projection I saw was 3 million more per school. Decent but not enough to keep up.
 

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I think sec goes after unc first...if they say no, then it would be ncst...I don't think sec wants fsu or they would of took them last go around...nd will be forced to join some where down the road...

Like I said before, that won't happen due to the "Tobacco Road" trio wanting to stick together (i.e. they have too many strong ties/rivalries that they don't want to end due to switching conference affiliation).
 

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GS, good points. Expansion from this point on is about tv sets. And I too think the Pac 12 has a good chance of not expanding. They have 11 million subscriptions and with college sports apathy in the region, adding just any tv market (vegas or santa fe/albaq) isnt a given success. It was OU and Tx or at least the OK schools. The DirecTv addition projection I saw was 3 million more per school. Decent but not enough to keep up.
This current Pac-12 deal is only about 2 years old, so it's too early to tell where it's going to go. I'm sure their current expenses will go down, which should bring their profits up. But the best way for the Pac-12 to make a splash and increase their TV viewership is to win a Natty. And if it's somebody besides USC it would really be a shot in the arm for the conference. Right now I don't see any realistic candidates other than Oregon. With most every Power 5 school making a pretty good chunk of money right now, do you think there is enough of a revenue gap to facilitate another game of musical chairs, or will they stick with what's safe for the time being? I really don't know. I feel like the PAC is probably the safest because of their geography, and total revenue, which probably matters more than anything else...
 

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I agree with RLR that more than likely Notre Dame won't happen. Texas would be borderline, but outside of their state, I don't think they even garner the ratings of OU. So independence could be a dicey situation for UT if their program continues to stay down. I've even heard ideas bantered around about forming a conference of Independent teams consisting of Texas, ND, BYU, Army and whoever else willing to come in. Maybe some of the AAC teams or Boise St? It's kind of a wild idea, but you never know.

If the Big 12 East/West ever was to happen, you know the conference that is going to be left out in the cold. It's the Pac-12. Their probably crossing their fingers it never happens. BigJunkDaddy keeps beating his chest about the big bad Pac-12, but in fact they are in the same boat as the ACC. If the PAC wasn't protected by it's geography, they would be targets in realignment. The Big 12 is in the ideal part of the country. They are centralized enough to where they could potentially join up with anybody.

The Pac-12 does have the biggest potential to beat everyone in their TV deals (except for the Big 10 because of their Tier 1 & 2 deal). But they also have the biggest bust potential. They own all of their TV rights, which is why they didn't take UT in the big Pac-12/Big 12 deal they proposed a few years ago. And from what I understand they just buy back from ESPN and Fox. If their Tier 3 was picked up, and they expanded properly, they would have a huge amount of cash flow. Unfortunately they aren't doing well in negotiations. And unfortunately for the PAC, there isn't that much interest in collegiate sports like there is in SEC country. The reason the PAC network hasn't taken off is because no one wants it. It's even hard for them to sell it in PAC country. Otherwise, it would be flourishing like the SEC and Big 10 networks. Like I said, the only thing that has kept the PAC from being picked apart in realignment is geography. It's really surprising to me (so far) that they haven't capitalized on the LA market at all, which is pretty sad considering the number of TV sets we are talking about.

Something tells me things will get better for the Pac-12. It's way too early to kick dirt on them. When they add DirecTV the revenue should shoot up quite a bit for each school. It took the Big 10 a few years for their national carriage to take off. So it could be that way for the PAC. The SEC and the BIG are going to end up blowing the doors off the PAC and Big 12 going forward. The PAC is set up to compete with them if things turn up. It would help if they could somehow produce a national title team. But at any rate, they will get more and more money as playoff revenues continue to grow. The trouble with the Big 12 is they are fairly locked in. I don't think things will get that much better for them. But the geography is perfect for any kind of realignment or conference musical chairs.

By the way, I'm not hatin' just statin' with the PAC situation. I personally love the conference and would have liked OU and a few other Big 12 teams go in for a joint venture with the Pac-12. But there was two mistakes made in that Pac-12/Big 12 realignment offer the first time around. Texas wouldn't give up their network, and The Pac-12 wouldn't take OU if they had to take other Big 12 schools with them minus Texas. They really wanted Texas and OU specifically or no deal. The PAC could rue the day they refused to take OU and Okie Lite together. Just think how different things could have been today. If OU and all of the other power teams in the conference move eastward (like I think they could) the Pac-12 will be stuck with 12 teams because there really isn't anybody else left out there that is on the Power 5 level except BYU and Boise. And in the past the PAC has expressed zero interest in these two schools.
I read an article recently that PAC12 revenues were up again year over year and after next year, they will have paid off their startup costs for starting up the new network, etc. Only thing missing is the DirecTv deal which ATT has said will happen once the ATT/DirecTv acquisition is completed (on hold pending court and FCC review). If that scenario comes up again, I think things would be different. I think with new leadership in Austin, it would go down differently. But the PAC12 is doing just fine right now without the Big12 teams.
I don't see the above scenario happening as many of those team granted their rights to the ACC. So theyd have to buy their way out. FSU would never get in the SEC because UF won't vote for it. Now Va Tech and NCST I could see that happening. UNC and Duke are like Texas and OU, they seem tied to one another so I doubt UNC would leave. And will all the scandal going on in Chapel hill, they are not as desirable right now
 

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With most every Power 5 school making a pretty good chunk of money right now, do you think there is enough of a revenue gap to facilitate another game of musical chairs, or will they stick with what's safe for the time being? I really don't know...

Right now the Big Ten and SEC are both above 30 mil (Big Ten based on proj.) Big12 is at 25-ish. The PAC and ACC are probably coming in less 22 mil-ish (projections). In two years, some projections have the Big Ten at 44mil and the SEC over 40 mil. I usually tend to think on the lower end, but even the big 12 beat their projections. So, the question is how well the others keep up and at what point is the gap too big? I feel like this has come more to a two conference arms race. Its the US vs USSR....with the SEC being the Soviets of course. The Soviets have to be eyeing getting their nukes into the DMV market. The Big US wants to march south.. So, yes I think it happens sooner than later.
 

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Right now the Big Ten and SEC are both above 30 mil (Big Ten based on proj.) Big12 is at 25-ish. The PAC and ACC are probably coming in less 22 mil-ish (projections). In two years, some projections have the Big Ten at 44mil and the SEC over 40 mil. I usually tend to think on the lower end, but even the big 12 beat their projections. So, the question is how well the others keep up and at what point is the gap too big? I feel like this has come more to a two conference arms race. Its the US vs USSR....with the SEC being the Soviets of course. The Soviets have to be eyeing getting their nukes into the DMV market. The Big US wants to march south.. So, yes I think it happens sooner than later.


I think the gap is only going to get bigger...I can't see fsu,Clem sitting back and doing nothing letting sc and rest of the sec pass them by.
 

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The DirecTv addition projection I saw was 3 million more per school. Decent but not enough to keep up.

This was a projection from just a few weeks ago.

Pac-12 media guru Jon Wilner projected that the conference is losing out on $6.4 million per year, per school by not being able to come to a deal with DirecTV.

Any school could use a extra 6 million but to schools like Oregon St & Washington St that extra money would be huge.

I have Comcast so I get the package but if I was a DirectTV subscriber I would be pissed that the parties can't get a deal in place.
 

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This was a projection from just a few weeks ago.



Any school could use a extra 6 million but to schools like Oregon St & Washington St that extra money would be huge.

I have Comcast so I get the package but if I was a DirectTV subscriber I would be pissed that the parties can't get a deal in place.

Jon Wilner didn't project 6.4 million, he uses the 3 million figure in his projections. He basically said if all the stars in the universe were to align right, If the Pac-12 Network was put onto the first tier DirecTv getting into 8 million homes nationwide, and IF the merged ATT/DTV didn't push for a lower footprint subscription rate, which could push that 3 million to 2 million. So he used the middle of the road figure. Even if you use the 6.4 million, that projects to 26.4 million two years from now. The Big 12 just pulled in 25.6 average. The Pac-12 is in just as dangerous spot as the Big 12 and ACC.
 

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Right now the Big Ten and SEC are both above 30 mil (Big Ten based on proj.) Big12 is at 25-ish. The PAC and ACC are probably coming in less 22 mil-ish (projections). In two years, some projections have the Big Ten at 44mil and the SEC over 40 mil. I usually tend to think on the lower end, but even the big 12 beat their projections. So, the question is how well the others keep up and at what point is the gap too big? I feel like this has come more to a two conference arms race. Its the US vs USSR....with the SEC being the Soviets of course. The Soviets have to be eyeing getting their nukes into the DMV market. The Big US wants to march south.. So, yes I think it happens sooner than later.
Did you read this S.I. article the Titanic Two? If they aren't careful, this is the kind of stuff that could send more fans of college sports to the exits than a lot of people think...

http://www.si.com/college-football/...big-ten-revenue-gap?page=3&devicetype=default
 

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Bottom line: The SEC will NOT allow another school into the conference from a State that is already represented in the SEC. That means no teams from Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, or any other State. The SEC really gains nothing my taking in teams from Virginia and North Carolina. Remember, the SEC already has 14 teams, as does the ACC and Big 10.

The Big 12 really does not want to go East, because teams like Texas and OU really are not very good now and would have little or no chance of winning the SEC title, much less anything else. Certainly no one wants Baylor or TCU. They bring nothing. The Big 12 has another major problem. Other than the Pac 12, there is no other Power 5 conference that has room for four teams, which means that either Texas and OU dump their little sisters, or one of the two states get left out if they do not go West. The Pac 12 is the only viable option for Texas, T-Tech, OU and Okie State at this time. If the Big 12 simply adds two more teams, they and the Pac 12 would be quite happy to settle for 12 teams and all of this madness comes to an abrupt halt.

The Pac 12 has a huge number of options that they can exercise. I don't know if they would, but the talk I hear is that they go from 12 to 16 teams if they expand. Again that is a large IF. Right now, it is not in the plans, but the Pac 12 always has something in the fire and can do things at a moments notice.
 

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