The aftermath of a ‘conventional’ war could include civil war, famine and epidemics, millions of refugees and displaced people, catastrophic effects on children’s health and development, economic collapse including failure of agriculture and manufacturing, and a requirement for long-term peacekeeping. Destabilisation and possible regime change in countries neighbouring Iraq is also possible, as well as more terrorist attacks. Global economic crisis may be triggered through trade reduction and soaring oil prices, with particularly devastating consequences for developing countries."
‘Preparations for a humanitarian crisis in Iraq are woefully inadequate despite official estimates that two million civilians would be left homeless by a military strike, aid officials say.
‘A confidential report drawn up by the United Nations estimates that an American-led invasion would, in addition to those left homeless, put up to 10 million civilians at risk of disease and hunger.
‘The impact of an invasion would probably be worse than that of the 1991 Gulf War, the report says, because oil production would be halted, electricity cut and the distribution of UN-supplied food severely disrupted.
“The bulk of the population is now totally dependent on the government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic needs,” says the report, published online yesterday by Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq, a pressure group based at Cambridge University.
“Unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping if they cannot access them: the sanctions regime, if anything, has served to increase dependence on the government as almost the sole provider.”
‘Christopher Klein Beekman, a programme co-ordinator for Unicef in Iraq, told the San Francisco Chronicle: “Iraq is already in crisis. The capacity for withstanding shortages is very light. Malnourished children, pregnant women have suffered the most and those are the ones who will suffer the most during war, that’s clear.”
“No one in the international community can spend money on preparations because that would give the message that war is inevitable,” said Majeed Waleed, the deputy manager for Care International, the largest non-government organisation in Iraq. “It’s a political statement. So we can’t do anything.”
Infrastructure
The human impact of the war will depend partly on whether the public health infrastructure is targeted.
‘The war may also see the use of the “blackout bomb”, a highly secret weapon designed to disable electrical power grids. These “soft bombs” which dispense large amounts of carbon fibre filaments, can be delivered by cruise missiles or tactical aircraft.’ (Sunday Telegraph, 29 Dec. 2002, p. 6)
Paul Sherlock, Oxfam’s leading sanitation expert, who has worked in the region for more than 20 years, says a war targeting the power stations needed for the water system, posed the possibility of ‘all sorts of epidemics’ and a ‘very high risk of water- related diseases.’ (Independent on Sunday, 29 Dec.2002, p. 2)
‘One debate still ongoing in the Pentagon is the extent to which the allies should bomb electric power grids. “I would shut down the electricity,” [retired US Air Force Col. John] Warden said. “I know I’m in a minority here [but] If you shut down the electricity it makes it that much harder for him to operate.” (Washington Times, 20 Dec.)
In 1991, Col. Warden pursued this strategy in the war on Iraq as Deputy Director of Strategy, Doctrine and Plans for the US Air Force, and he acknowledged that the wrecking of Iraq’s electricity system ‘gives us long-term leverage’: ‘If there are political objectives that the UN coalition has, it can say, “Saddam, when you agree to do these things, we will allow people to come in and fix your electricity”.’ (Middle East Watch, Needless Deaths in the Gulf War, p. 192)
In a report to the Security Council in Feb. 1998, Kofi Annan referred to the ‘threat of a complete breakdown’ in power generation, saying that the humanitarian consequences of such a breakdown ‘could potentially dwarf all other difficulties endured by the Iraqi people’. (1 Feb. 1998)
ACTION - Write to your MP demanding that he press the Defence Secretary: 1) not to participate in a war that can cause so much human suffering and 2) to give an undertaking not to target the electricity sector or other parts of the civilian infrastructure in Iraq. If we can protect the power generating system, we can save thousands of lives in Iraq—even if there is a war.
‘Preparations for a humanitarian crisis in Iraq are woefully inadequate despite official estimates that two million civilians would be left homeless by a military strike, aid officials say.
‘A confidential report drawn up by the United Nations estimates that an American-led invasion would, in addition to those left homeless, put up to 10 million civilians at risk of disease and hunger.
‘The impact of an invasion would probably be worse than that of the 1991 Gulf War, the report says, because oil production would be halted, electricity cut and the distribution of UN-supplied food severely disrupted.
“The bulk of the population is now totally dependent on the government of Iraq for a majority, if not all, of their basic needs,” says the report, published online yesterday by Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq, a pressure group based at Cambridge University.
“Unlike the situation in 1991, they have no way of coping if they cannot access them: the sanctions regime, if anything, has served to increase dependence on the government as almost the sole provider.”
‘Christopher Klein Beekman, a programme co-ordinator for Unicef in Iraq, told the San Francisco Chronicle: “Iraq is already in crisis. The capacity for withstanding shortages is very light. Malnourished children, pregnant women have suffered the most and those are the ones who will suffer the most during war, that’s clear.”
“No one in the international community can spend money on preparations because that would give the message that war is inevitable,” said Majeed Waleed, the deputy manager for Care International, the largest non-government organisation in Iraq. “It’s a political statement. So we can’t do anything.”
Infrastructure
The human impact of the war will depend partly on whether the public health infrastructure is targeted.
‘The war may also see the use of the “blackout bomb”, a highly secret weapon designed to disable electrical power grids. These “soft bombs” which dispense large amounts of carbon fibre filaments, can be delivered by cruise missiles or tactical aircraft.’ (Sunday Telegraph, 29 Dec. 2002, p. 6)
Paul Sherlock, Oxfam’s leading sanitation expert, who has worked in the region for more than 20 years, says a war targeting the power stations needed for the water system, posed the possibility of ‘all sorts of epidemics’ and a ‘very high risk of water- related diseases.’ (Independent on Sunday, 29 Dec.2002, p. 2)
‘One debate still ongoing in the Pentagon is the extent to which the allies should bomb electric power grids. “I would shut down the electricity,” [retired US Air Force Col. John] Warden said. “I know I’m in a minority here [but] If you shut down the electricity it makes it that much harder for him to operate.” (Washington Times, 20 Dec.)
In 1991, Col. Warden pursued this strategy in the war on Iraq as Deputy Director of Strategy, Doctrine and Plans for the US Air Force, and he acknowledged that the wrecking of Iraq’s electricity system ‘gives us long-term leverage’: ‘If there are political objectives that the UN coalition has, it can say, “Saddam, when you agree to do these things, we will allow people to come in and fix your electricity”.’ (Middle East Watch, Needless Deaths in the Gulf War, p. 192)
In a report to the Security Council in Feb. 1998, Kofi Annan referred to the ‘threat of a complete breakdown’ in power generation, saying that the humanitarian consequences of such a breakdown ‘could potentially dwarf all other difficulties endured by the Iraqi people’. (1 Feb. 1998)
ACTION - Write to your MP demanding that he press the Defence Secretary: 1) not to participate in a war that can cause so much human suffering and 2) to give an undertaking not to target the electricity sector or other parts of the civilian infrastructure in Iraq. If we can protect the power generating system, we can save thousands of lives in Iraq—even if there is a war.
