Poly Forum Daily Picks Thread MONDAY 6/15/2015

[ScottL]

Rare for a Monday to see every MLB Team on the Schedule.

List your Play(s) with the Line, and a brief reason for your prediction.

If you would like, keep a running record of your units +or- and update each thread with yesterday's results and your season to date total.

ALL posters are welcome and encouraged to participate.

Please limit the daily pick threads to picks, game analysis and discussion. If you feel overwhelmed by the need to remind another poster that you are a Bulldozer and he is merely a Styrofoam Cup, or to make a bigoted remark please do so in a different thread. Thanks for keeping it clean guys!

Good Luck To Us!

(Note: If you sorta like something but it's just a 'Leaner' you don't want to count as a Rated Play please indicate it. There were a couple of posts yesterday leaving me wondering if they were actual wagers or not)

 

[Coldweather]

YTD 2-0

I like the baseball over in the SF baseball game at 7 baseball runs and - $115 baseball money


caz it seems like a reasonable baseball play to me! So, i play it to win baseball money! BOL.

 

[mountain]

2-0 +270 YTD

Taking the Nats over TB (+110 5D reduced juice), risking $50 to win $55

TB not a great home team, attendance is always low but with the Lightening fighting for their lives in Chi-town the attendance will be abysmal and TB players will take notice. Nats are about a 500 road team, the same as TB's home record. Small play but I will take the value.

Good luck to all

 

[vitterd]

Hey Scott....I usually slow down or basically stop betting baseball after the all star break....until the playoffs. It seems to me that July and August are mostly chalk months for baseball. Do you have any numbers that prove me right or wrong? It might be just perception on my part. Thanks.

 

[NFLTrends]

Monday, june 15, 2015 | 7:05 pm est
league: Mlb (full game)
philadelphia phillies vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: Philadelphia phillies (+152)

 

[Willie99]

YTD 5-5 +0.16 w/CSF pending

I have $ 400 pending a CSF + 210 to win $ 840 in a suspended game, they're winning 3-0 in the 6th

I just hedged with $ 200 on Vandy + 350, this game will not be part of my record since hedging can't be a recommended play for everyone

I've seen it so many times over the years at different levels, when they resume there's a new pitcher and the game pressure changes and Vandy comes out with nothing to lose and baddafuckingbing, CSF goes down

 

[ScottL]

Sorry Vit, can't help ya there. You need a database guy like your ole pal Rolltide to run those 3s.

 

[SheriffJoe]

Scott, what websites do you use for your trend analysis, i.e., x pitcher is 22-5 in afternoon games; Nuggets are 2-15 ATS off a road loss when playing b2b. Or just a matter of "doing your homework"?

 

[ScottL]

Joe I used to use Covers a lot but they altered formats and bloated the pages with ads. Most of my stuff is kept by hand with trends discarded after they break form. Usually I cap from here. It's like 'Covers Light.'
http://content.sportsdirectinc.com/sports-scores/Baseball-Scores-Matchups.aspx

 

[SheriffJoe]

Joe I used to use Covers a lot but they altered formats and bloated the pages with ads. Most of my stuff is kept by hand with trends discarded after they break form. Usually I cap from here. It's like 'Covers Light.'
http://content.sportsdirectinc.com/sports-scores/Baseball-Scores-Matchups.aspx

Thanks. I like your analysis and write-ups.

Ever heard of these guys?

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stats/

 

[ScottL]

Not until just now Joe.


Damn, I better get to work on this board.

 

[ScottL]

3-3, +.2 Units (as in, 20 bucks based on $100 per play)

My Plays Monday:

CWS +181 -- They ruined my Sunday but no choice but to back them again tonight. Pirates did not hit their way to sweep vs Phils; they've scored 11 Runs total in last 7 games. Tonight they go with Liriano, and they are 0-7 when he starts at night. Meanwhile CWS starter Rodon has allowed 2 ER his last 17 Innings. Line is whacked here.


CIN +182 -- Reds screwed their backers by failing to score with the sacks drunk and no Outs in the T-9th last night. DET won an important Div gm yesterday but is still 3-7 last 10 Home and 4-9 starting A. Sanchez. Nothing good to say about CIN; this is a Play against DET at a hefty return.


CLE +135 -- CLE lost with Ace yesterday and Cubs won a game they should have lost. Cubs not hitting (26 Runs last 10 Home games) and off consecutive walkoffs, while CLE starter Bauer stingy on the Road allowing only 5 Earned Runs in last 34 Innings.





Last 2 that I tossed out were NYY & TOR. Hondo took both in the NY Post. If Hondo agrees with you then you missed something, and you're likely to have a lighter wallet at day's end. He's the absolute pits!

 

[JDeuce]

Thanks. I like your analysis and write-ups.

Ever heard of these guys?

https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/stats/

Interesting stuff.

Fox Sports used to have a nice little section in their game previews which showed a pitcher's ERA (both home vs. road) and their form over their last five starts. Two very important numbers I like to use as part of my overall formula for determining plays. It was convenient to have them all in once place, but now they don't post them anymore and I have to dig for them. I wish an individual pitcher's stats were in the site you linked, but it looks like only team stats.

As for my posted plays, I think I'm barely above water. Probably makes sense since I only started posting here a week ago and broke even with Mr. Local last week.

Going with the TB Lightning +150 tonight...and even a small amount on them +330 to win the Cup since I think they will go on to win G7 if they win tonight. Nothing in baseball as of now. I like letting interleague settle down a bit before diving in.

 

[ScottL]

Yeah this is the second annual, "2 At Our Place, 2 At Your Place" Series in the Interleague. Not as much to go on as usual with Series history. I do remember last year the Red Sox faced ATL and entered this 4 Game Series on a 10 Game losing streak. They swept all 4. And this year Sox enter having lost 6 straight.

 

[Willie99]

YTD 5-5 +0.16 w/CSF pending

I have $ 400 pending a CSF + 210 to win $ 840 in a suspended game, they're winning 3-0 in the 6th

I just hedged with $ 200 on Vandy + 350, this game will not be part of my record since hedging can't be a recommended play for everyone

I've seen it so many times over the years at different levels, when they resume there's a new pitcher and the game pressure changes and Vandy comes out with nothing to lose and baddafuckingbing, CSF goes down

should have read 5-5 +0.15 (had -101 on the Cavs)

now 5-6 -0.85 (good thing I hedged on CSF this morning, or that would have sucked )

Twins +160
Rays -121
AZ +132
Tonto +110

college

VA +195
VA 1st 5 +.5 and + 155 (plus runs and plus money through 5, but only a $ 250 max)

 

[ScottL]

CLE-CUB ppd

 

[vitterd]

Mets -117

 

[Michelangelo]

yest 0-2 -200
YTD 2-3 -12

Monday:

Cin +177 (@ Det)
CWS +179 (@ Pit)
Mia +125 (vs NYY)
Col +167 (@ Hou)

Have fun

 

[Willie99]

Monday, june 15, 2015 | 7:05 pm est
league: Mlb (full game)
philadelphia phillies vs. Baltimore orioles
pick: Philadelphia phillies (+152)

this presently +225

 

[Willie99]

should have read 5-5 +0.15 (had -101 on the Cavs)

now 5-6 -0.85 (good thing I hedged on CSF this morning, or that would have sucked )

Twins +160
Rays -121
AZ +132
Tonto +110

college

VA +195
VA 1st 5 +.5 and + 155 (plus runs and plus money through 5, but only a $ 250 max)

Monday 4-2 + 3.82
YTD 9-8 + 2.97