Poly Forum Daily Picks Thread FRIDAY 7/10/2015

[ScottL]

List your Play(s) with the Line, and a brief reason for your prediction.

If you would like, keep a running record of your units +or- and update each thread with yesterday's results and your season to date total.

ALL posters are welcome and encouraged to participate.

 

[ScottL]

So I'm sure you can all tell from my posts I do not feel like working today. Hit my Play yesterday but I definitely need the break about now.

What no one here can see is, to my right there's a folder stacked with NFL Preseason garbage that has to be sifted through. Grrr....

 

[ScottL]

The CWS are 12-39 on the Road coming off a Home Game.... But this Road Game is across the street?

 

[ScottL]

Is everyone burnt out? Or broke?
Rockies decided to go with:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gonzalez_Germen

 

[ScottL]

I'll go with 6 tonight:


STL +130

MIL +147

HOU +100

OAK +154

TOR -115

DET +108


Notes:

Harrison Out and Marte doubtful for Bucos. TOMORROW (and Sunday) an incredible Stat kicks in for PIT. The Pirates are a mind-boggling 20-2 in the last 2 Games of a Homestand before heading out on the Road.

MIL has won 7 straight Away and has Hot vs Cold starter tonight.

Both HOU + TAM are off multiple Losses. HOU is 8-4 vs new opponent off Loss while TAM is 3-9 vs new opponent off Loss.

CLE-OAK is worst Line on the Board. CLE as mentioned before is now 2-17 in Game #1 of a Home Series. Their starter has failed to reach the 5th Inning in 3 of his last 4 while OAK starter Graveman has allowed 6 Earned Runs in his last 43 Innings (not a typo). OAK won the last 3 meetings in CLE by a combined 30-6 Score. WTF is up with this Line???

 

[vitterd]

Reds - 122

bjays -117

angels -120

 

[The Guesser]

1-1 (+15)
SF- Phil OVER 5.5(-110) Heritage. Both Baumgarner and Hamels have over 3 ERA's. I'll take a shot they perform to their numbers or worse. This line is just too low. This isn't Grienke-Sherzer, pitchers that may warrant such a low total.

 

[ScottL]

Reds - 122

bjays -117

angels -120

GL Vit.

Vit, what factors determine who you bet? I noticed something about your Plays I didn't see before because I think you've changed up when you started going cold. Most teams you've posted recently are coming off a Loss in their previous game.
Also I sent you a message on 7/8. Did you see it?

 

[vitterd]

GL Vit.

Vit, what factors determine who you bet? I noticed something about your Plays I didn't see before because I think you've changed up when you started going cold. Most teams you've posted recently are coming off a Loss in their previous game.
Also I sent you a message on 7/8. Did you see it?

I saw your message. Thought I responded but just noticed it isn't in my sent items. Hmmmmm

A few factors.....I do use situations but I mostly like to use lineups when they come out and how they match up with pitchers, also rested and unrested bullpens. The way the game is so specialized now with bullpens.....it's a factor that has to be used for me. I'm overthinking now that I've gone cold though. I'm hoping to scratch out a weekend profit and get to the break with some momentum.

I honestly don't use too much of trending numbers like you ...although it looks like it works for you and I'm starting to see the value in it. I do use more of that in football....

 

[vitterd]

1-1 (+15)
SF- Phil OVER 5.5(-110) Heritage. Both Baumgarner and Hamels have over 3 ERA's. I'll take a shot they perform to their numbers or worse. This line is just too low. This isn't Grienke-Sherzer, pitchers that may warrant such a low total.

5.5 almost seems silly. Neither pitcher has been lights out this year....and Madison and Cole can both handle the bat.....Madison better obviously.

Good luck Guesser....I may jump on this with you.

 

[The Guesser]

5.5 almost seems silly. Neither pitcher has been lights out this year....and Madison and Cole can both handle the bat.....Madison better obviously.

Good luck Guesser....I may jump on this with you.

Be careful. I'm probably a better fade when it comes to non NFL stuff. Good luck with your plays.

 

[ScottL]

I saw your message. Thought I responded but just noticed it isn't in my sent items. Hmmmmm

A few factors.....I do use situations but I mostly like to use lineups when they come out and how they match up with pitchers, also rested and unrested bullpens. The way the game is so specialized now with bullpens.....it's a factor that has to be used for me. I'm overthinking now that I've gone cold though. I'm hoping to scratch out a weekend profit and get to the break with some momentum.

I honestly don't use too much of trending numbers like you ...although it looks like it works for you and I'm starting to see the value in it. I do use more of that in football....

We will have some fun with trends in Football. My biggest problem with Football is I literally do not finish capping until late on Sat&Sun mornings.
Regarding MLB it's unfortunate that there are probably 6 more teams than there should be and that leaves a lot of AAA quality throwing important pitches in the 6th-7th Inning. And many outcomes get decided by these bad arms.

 

[vitterd]

GL Vit.

Vit, what factors determine who you bet? I noticed something about your Plays I didn't see before because I think you've changed up when you started going cold. Most teams you've posted recently are coming off a Loss in their previous game.
Also I sent you a message on 7/8. Did you see it?

I also do a little line reading but that honestly sometimes fucks with what I'm trying to do.

the absolute limit for me to lay is -140.....rarely do I even go near those prices. I really go light after the break as I think some of these teams start to mail it in and favs seem to rule August and September.

 

[vitterd]

We will have some fun with trends in Football. My biggest problem with Football is I literally do not finish capping until late on Sat&Sun mornings.
Regarding MLB it's unfortunate that there are probably 6 more teams than there should be and that leaves a lot of AAA quality throwing important pitches in the 6th-7th Inning. And many outcomes get decided by these bad arms.

In college football, in recent years, I cut down on trying to handicap all the games. Just too much to get thru.

A big factor for me in football is previous week results and game on deck for the team that week. Works well for me in college football where i think emotional letdowns are easy to play on or against in a given week.

 

[Michelangelo]

yest 1-4 -227
YTD 46-64 -240

running late. only one game left that I have any interest in.

LAA -113 (@ Sea)
LAA -1' +144

GL guys

 

[Michelangelo]

Add:

Milw +145 (@ LAD)

 

[ScottL]

I quit until tomorrow afternoon! Mother Fucking Bullshit!


CLE Bottom 6th (entered tied 1-1)

Carlos Santana singles to right.

Brandon Moss flies out to left.

Yan Gomes strikes out.

Giovanny Urshela singles to center. Carlos Santana to third.

Michael Bourn walks. Giovanny Urshela to second.

Drew Pomeranz enters game as pitcher.

Jason Kipnis walks. Carlos Santana scores. Giovanny Urshela to third. Michael Bourn to second.

Francisco Lindor walks. Giovanny Urshela scores. Michael Bourn to third. Jason Kipnis to second.

Michael Brantley singles to center. Michael Bourn scores. Jason Kipnis scores. Francisco Lindor to third.

David Murphy strikes out.

MIN Bottom 9th (entered trailing 1-6)

oe Mauer singles to second.

Miguel Sano hits a ground-rule double to left. Joe Mauer to third.

Trevor Plouffe strikes out.

Eddie Rosario singles to left. Joe Mauer scores. Miguel Sano to third.

Joakim Soria enters game as pitcher.

Eddie Rosario steals second.

Aaron Hicks walks.

Kurt Suzuki hit by pitch. Miguel Sano scores. Eddie Rosario to third. Aaron Hicks to second.

Shane Robinson enters game as pinch runner.

Danny Santana singles to center. Eddie Rosario scores. Aaron Hicks scores. Shane Robinson to second.

Brian Dozier homers to center. Shane Robinson scores. Danny Santana scores.