Poinsetta Bowl Things you should know

[RedElephants]

Boise St played 3 Top 50 Offenses all season: Oregon scored 32, Nevada scored 34, Southern Miss scored 7. TCU is ranked 29th.

Boise St played only 1 Top 50 Defense all season. Boise scored 33 points against San Jose St., ranked 21st. TCU is ranked 2nd.

TCU played 4 Top 50 Offenses: Oklahoma scored 35, Colorado St scored 7, BYU scored 7, and Utah scored 13. Boise St is 13th.

TCU played 4 Top 50 Defenses: TCU scored 26 on New Mexico, 54 on Wyoming, 10 on Utah, and 44 on Air Force. Boise St is 16th.

My thoughts? I like to to look at season end stats, especially against Top 50 Offense and Defense to see if you find a strength trend. And to me this bleeds true here.

If you look above, Boise against Top 50 Offenses was not the great Defense. By far their two top point totals put up against Boise were Top 30 Offenses. TCU is 29th. They should be able to move the ball on the Boise St Defense, and the Stats show an opportunity to get to 30 points.

Boise's Offense on the other hand played only 1 Top 50 Defense and scored 33 points. They have not faced a Defense close to TCU's all season. The trend here would be for Boise to score 20+ points max.

TCU on the other hand faced 4 Top 50 Offenses and Defenses. On average, other than having one bad game in each category, they showed strength to score at will on good Defenses, while they proved they could shut down virtually any Offense they faced.

The play here is TCU in my opinion. And because I see an opportunity for TCU to get to the 30's on points, I would stay away from the Under.

Feel free to add your thoughts.

 

[kingking]

Very nice. Thanks for the info, great post!! ope:

 

[coitus_maximus]

Now that is a definite rhyme and reason for TCU.

Bravo

 

[LookingForHotPick]

I like TCU here. Don't want to mess with the over/under. If so, probably leaning towards the under but who knows.

 

[EVincent]

Sharp post elephants. I concur.

 

[boyzfan]

great post.
i'm thinking vegas sets this total and everyone thinks of 2 good defenses and is all over the under. i see 2 good defenses and i'm hammering the over.

 

[Conan]

Well all those points about TCU demonstrate that they are proven to a point. But lack of strong enough scheduling for the Borncos only means that nothing has been proven to the degree that TCU's schedule proves more clearly about them. The problem with your conclusion is that there is a lack of information about them vs strong opponents compared to TCU.

However for starters, Boise has lost only 3 games in the last 5 years. They've played plenty of "TCU's" and better over that period. This will definitely be a better test for the Broncos than usual, -- however it must be understood that with the wins they've accumulated in the long run, and considering that they've been dogs numerous times in similar situations, it would be logical to assume that they have been habitually underrated. 3 losses to better teams during the last 5 years is the only counter argument to that. That hardly dents the surface.

That's why I can't bet against the Broncos, however I can't be sure enougjh that TCU isn't ready to put another rare dent in Boise's record. 3 losses in 5 years is argument enough NOT to fade Boise.