Please help me understand this logic

[briton]

"Never bet a favorite at -200 or above"

I have read this advise over and over on these forums and other betting forums. It seems like "smart betters" know that this rule of thumb is correct.

If this advise that I see so often is in fact good advise, then does that mean that I should start betting on most of the dogs at +200 and above?

 

[BIGSHOTMAXXX]

Here is my opinion. As a rule, the reason for not betting heavy juice is that there is usually other value on the board. Betting 2-1 odds or heavier is stupid in most cases, cause if you lose you hve to win two games just to get even.

 

[seanm0520]

It's just about value. Anybody can lose at any time and if you were to put a big chunk of coin on a heavy fav, you could wind up losing your ass very fast.

 

[averageg]

Adding to what Bigshotmaxxx has said, sometimes no bet is the best bet. You don't want to cripple yourself if the favorite loses, and at the same time the dog already has slim chances of winning.

 

[briton]

It's just about value. Anybody can lose at any time and if you were to put a big chunk of coin on a heavy fav, you could wind up losing your ass very fast.

So if there is negative value on a -200 wouldn't that mean there is positive value on the +200?

Using simple math and logic says that if the guy betting the -200 is getting negative EV than logically the guy getting the other end of that bet must be getting +EV.

 

[briton]

Adding to what Bigshotmaxxx has said, sometimes no bet is the best bet. You don't want to cripple yourself if the favorite loses, and at the same time the dog already has slim chances of winning.

I can understand this logic.

 

[BIGSHOTMAXXX]

Yeah, its hard enough to win one game let alone two just to get even.......if you are gonna bet heavy juice, which I personally dont recommend, then it better be an elite pitcher against a piss poor pitcher.

I can understand this logic.

 

[seanm0520]

But it always seems like when you pass on the heavy chalk, they win by 10

 

[crazy]

Here is the truth of this matter. I'll only say it once and then leave it alone. When you are looking at 190 and up fav's you have to weigh that it will come through appx. 72 percent of the time. Not really profitable there? But it is.... with a good money manage system, and using a few techniques such as avoiding big favs that are slumping or on a losing streak (check for key injuries) plus typically (not always) playing them at home vs a team that is slumping and also vs a pitcher that does not have sucess aginst them makes this a very profitable situation. I don't post these plays anywhere but I do make goos money off them. I see more problems in these so called chase systems than betting a even amount on high Favs

Just remember its not the price that matters it's the research you use to justify the price.

 

[woodypaige]

Play 2 team parlays with 170 and above and you will never get killed, but you will have a great chance at winning 1- 1.5 x your money.

 

[crazy]

Play 2 team parlays with 170 and above and you will never get killed, but you will have a great chance at winning 1- 1.5 x your money.

that too is not really good for long term sucess. Although there are usually a few -200 games on board there is only 1 or maybe 2 worth betting. Mean while on some nights none of them are worth the risk not even in a parlay that pays back 1-1 at best

The best way is to be selective and bet them straight up with money management! no chasing ride them out with even wagers

 

[Juuso]

provided the selections are +EV and have about equal edge, -200 bets are clearly better than +200 bets.

Lower variance and risk of ruin + your bankroll should grow faster. That's if you can consistently find +EV bets in that odds range.

 

[Twistedheat]

So if there is negative value on a -200 wouldn't that mean there is positive value on the +200?

Using simple math and logic says that if the guy betting the -200 is getting negative EV than logically the guy getting the other end of that bet must be getting +EV.

No.

You are completely forgetting about the juice. Put it this way, if you bet every single underdog on the board, everyday, in the long term you would lose money. If you decided to fade this method, and bet every single favourite on the board, everyday, in the long term you would lose money. Both sides of the coin are -EV. It's all because of the juice.

 

[woodypaige]

that too is not really good for long term sucess. Although there are usually a few -200 games on board there is only 1 or maybe 2 worth betting. Mean while on some nights none of them are worth the risk not even in a parlay that pays back 1-1 at best

The best way is to be selective and bet them straight up with money management! no chasing ride them out with even wagers

I've been doing that for over 30 years and only had 2 losing years.:drink::drink:

 

[crazy]

I've been doing that for over 30 years and only had 2 losing years.:drink::drink:

OH ok! now I understand what you meant in my other thread


here here!!

greater than (-190 lines)

93W 38L year 2008
90W 53L year 2007
95W 36L year 2006
116W 44L year 2005
130W 55L year 2004

the lines avg out to -215 and the only filter used was that they did not come into the game on a loss

start filtering in the other perameters and the numbers become Really Nice!!

This year so far there have been only 4 games with all filters thus far, and it's at 3-1.

 

[crazy]

And here it is when you expand it and their opponent has 2 losses, still not factoring in the other perameters (AVG line is now 210)

54W 18L 2008
45W 28L 2007
56W 24L 2006
61W 19L 2005
74W 27L 2004

See I too have had winning years...

 

[Coaster]

And here it is when you expand it and their opponent has 2 losses, still not factoring in the other perameters (AVG line is now 210)

54W 18L 2008
45W 28L 2007
56W 24L 2006
61W 19L 2005
74W 27L 2004

See I too have had winning years...

Using your filters you have 71%.....as stated previously "When you are looking at 190 and up fav's you have to weigh that it will come through appx. 72 percent of the time. Not really profitable there? But it is.... with a good money manage system, and using a few techniques "

The techniques seem to lower your odds???

 

[crazy]

Using your filters you have 71%.....as stated previously "When you are looking at 190 and up fav's you have to weigh that it will come through appx. 72 percent of the time. Not really profitable there? But it is.... with a good money manage system, and using a few techniques "

The techniques seem to lower your odds???

Yes Coaster it does slightly lower the odds in some years while increasing them in others. The scope of the second filter is to reduce thenumber of games available to play. That is just the streak filters, then you need to continue on and add the pitching filters and so on.....reducing the games even more. (example Bluejays today ere eliminated because of Doc's 5era vs texas and a 8-11 life time)

I never said you will make a lot of money, just that it's not to be dissmissed without some investigation. Annually at a flat 1 unit play per game breaks the year at about 11-17 units of profit

 

[gynecologist]

Any line could present value..

Its not smart to constantly wager on -200 or above odds, but its also not smart to avoid them like the plague..

A lot of people want to feel like they are contrarians, different than the average bettor so they stay away from big favorites to make themselves feel smarter..

Sort of like the dumb NFL bet against the public rule thats complete bullshit..

Just bet what you like, utilize sound money management(MORE IMPORTANT THAN ANYHTING), and if you're a decent capper you will come out ahead, or close to it..

 

[crazy]

Any line could present value..

Its not smart to constantly wager on -200 or above odds, but its also not smart to avoid them like the plague..

A lot of people want to feel like they are contrarians, different than the average bettor so they stay away from big favorites to make themselves feel smarter..

Sort of like the dumb NFL bet against the public rule thats complete bullshit..

Just bet what you like, utilize sound money management(MORE IMPORTANT THAN ANYHTING), and if you're a decent capper you will come out ahead, or close to it..

Thats exactly my point.
I myself do not use chase systems ( I got burnt bad long ago) but there are others who can use it to turn a profit (like Gyno)
I don't post these plays because M.Management is very important and you have to stay on top of it all the time.