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[geor99]

I am a small time local here who got a lot of interest in whether the NO Saints will get into the playoffs. Here’s the scenario: NO Must beat Carolina & have either Atl or NY Giants lose. Let’s ignore ties for simplicity. I used the money lines and split the – and + to get the true money line. NO/CAR would be at 275, Atl/Clev is 140, and NY/Phi is 120.
There are the following 8 scenerios:
1) NO/Atl/Phi win
= (1+(1/2.75)) x (1+(1/1.4)) x (1+1/1.2))= odds of 4.29 to 1
2) NO/Clev/Phi win
= (1+(1/2.75)) x 2.4 x (1+1/1.2))= 6.00 to 1
3) NO/Clev/Giants win
= (1+(1/2.75)) x 2.4 x 2.2 = of +7.20
4) NO/aTL/Giants win
= (1+(1/2.75)) x (1+(1/1.4)) x 2.2 = of +5.14
5) car/Atl/Phi win
= 3.75 x (1+(1/1.4)) x (1+1/1.2))= +11.80

6) car/Clev/Phi win
= 3.75 x 2.4 x (1+1/1.2)) = of +16.50
7)Car/Clev/Giants win
= 3.75 x 2.4 x 2.2 –=f +19.80
8) car/aTL/Giants win
= 3.75 x (1+(1/1.4)) x 2.2 = of +14.15

The Saints go if the either of the first 3 happen.
There fore to go to playoffs is the inverse of 1/ 4.29 + 1/ 6 + 1/7.2 or a moneyline of +186 So I came up with the following lines

Will Make Playoffs –200
Will Not +175

If anyone out there is good with numbers, please show me what you would come up with and how.

Thanks.

 

[geor99]

I just realized it should be -130/+110. I t should have been 1- the inverse.

 

At first glance everything looks correct to me. You came up with true odds of -116. I came up with -118 for NO to make the playoffs. The only thing that's wrong is when you came up with true odds for NO, Atl and the Giants to win week 17 you can't just split the difference of the money lines. NO will win more times then Car so you have to take that into account.

 

I was just playing around with the numbers. If a ML is -300 , +250 what does the book think that the true odds are?

 

[Tortillera]

So who won?