9/11
Utah -1.5
This line might be -2 now, but I like it. Utah QB is out, but the backup is decent. Utah D-line is strong and I think they will win this game by at least a FG on their home turf on ESPN.
9/13
UNLV +20
Yeah, I like the Rebs in this spot. Wisky is obviously the better team in all facets, but just don't like the line, especially with UNLV getting rolled vs Kansas last week. If it were Wisc -21 or more, I would probably lay off this game. The UNLV offense is not stagnant and they can score...if they put up 21, can Wisky drop 40+? Don't think so. Vegas wants you to think if KU did, then Wisc surely can, but I'll take the dogs here.
Oklahoma -28
Been surprised to see lots of Fresno State support (gladly so) on the boards, but OU will bring the pain in this one. They are at home, potentially lost against Bama last week, and Fresno State has shown me nothing. Congrats on the SU win as a dog last week vs Oreg St, but the offense is too weak to compete in Norman. Fresno State will rely on one thing (not by choice), and that is the PASS. They rushed for 60 yards total in first 2 games (1.1 YPR!!!). Not a good stat against the nation's most feared defense. OU will have the freedom to play pass-happy coverage against the one dimensional offense, which should turn into some INT's and easy points off turnovers. And this support for OU coming from a UT graduate.
Penn State +10
The poster child for anti-public action this week, the Nittany Lions. Thank you for losing at home as a 10 pt fave to BC and barely getting by Temple in Week 1. TOO many people like the Blackshirts this week, and I love it. I still think PSU is a decent team, and I have no problem if Mills is not 100% and Robinson gets some snaps. Joe Pa will have these guys prepared to play and will make it a game for Nebraska. Lots of Nebraska action this week, however I see line down to 9.5 and 9 at some place. Red light should be flashing.
Louisiana Tech +11.5
Not a lot of analysis here, I just think La Tech will cover. Mich St failed to cover their first 2 games at home (-13.5 vs W. Mich and -20 vs Rutgers) and linesmaker's are trying to make this week a little easier for them at -11.5. I'm not buying it.
Auburn -11.5
Are you kidding me? Vandy should be 2-0 going into this game, and beat the heck out of Tenn-Chat last week, while Mr. Tuberville has yet to score a TD and has converted ONE FG in the red zone. Did I mention Auburn is laying chalk on the road to the tune of a TD+FG+SAFETY? I'll play Auburn this week hoping they can turn it around vs a sub-par Vandy team coming off of an offensive showcase. It helps that this is the first conference game for Auburn and they can "redeem" themselves in some form.
Oregon State -21
I had the opportunity to watch NM state play vs Texas and I give them credit. They have a lot of heart and came out with some fire. However, they lack the overall talent and depth to hang with a big conference squad. They shuttled a few QB's in here and there, and the majority of their offense against UT came from QB draws and option keepers. Oregon State disappointed on the road vs Fresno State last week, but look for them to bounce back at home here. It's interesting to see Texas favored by 29 at home vs the Aggies, and Oregon State getting enough respect to chalk up 3 TD's. Derek Anderson will shine.
Kentucky +14
Line has dropped to 13.5 at some places which is odd to me, but I'll take the 2 TD's and give it a try. Bama showed they can play with the big boys last week, in a game where many thought they could have pulled the upset. That being said, put the Murray State game aside for KY, and factor in a beating they got at home vs Louisville and you have to question why Bama is only laying 14 at home in the SEC opener. This game will be close, Kentucky is a solid team to play as spoiler and they should not be taken lightly. See Memphis vs Ole Miss last week.
Eastern Michigan +19.5
What is Akron doing laying 19.5 points? E Mich is bad, but not 19.5 points bad. Akron is getting too much credit for their game last week at Wisc, and the line is following. Value = Eastern Michigan.
Other leans that I decided to lay off of:
Troy State +11
Arizona +11.5
Texas -13.5
Georgia Tech +24
Utah -1.5
This line might be -2 now, but I like it. Utah QB is out, but the backup is decent. Utah D-line is strong and I think they will win this game by at least a FG on their home turf on ESPN.
9/13
UNLV +20
Yeah, I like the Rebs in this spot. Wisky is obviously the better team in all facets, but just don't like the line, especially with UNLV getting rolled vs Kansas last week. If it were Wisc -21 or more, I would probably lay off this game. The UNLV offense is not stagnant and they can score...if they put up 21, can Wisky drop 40+? Don't think so. Vegas wants you to think if KU did, then Wisc surely can, but I'll take the dogs here.
Oklahoma -28
Been surprised to see lots of Fresno State support (gladly so) on the boards, but OU will bring the pain in this one. They are at home, potentially lost against Bama last week, and Fresno State has shown me nothing. Congrats on the SU win as a dog last week vs Oreg St, but the offense is too weak to compete in Norman. Fresno State will rely on one thing (not by choice), and that is the PASS. They rushed for 60 yards total in first 2 games (1.1 YPR!!!). Not a good stat against the nation's most feared defense. OU will have the freedom to play pass-happy coverage against the one dimensional offense, which should turn into some INT's and easy points off turnovers. And this support for OU coming from a UT graduate.
Penn State +10
The poster child for anti-public action this week, the Nittany Lions. Thank you for losing at home as a 10 pt fave to BC and barely getting by Temple in Week 1. TOO many people like the Blackshirts this week, and I love it. I still think PSU is a decent team, and I have no problem if Mills is not 100% and Robinson gets some snaps. Joe Pa will have these guys prepared to play and will make it a game for Nebraska. Lots of Nebraska action this week, however I see line down to 9.5 and 9 at some place. Red light should be flashing.
Louisiana Tech +11.5
Not a lot of analysis here, I just think La Tech will cover. Mich St failed to cover their first 2 games at home (-13.5 vs W. Mich and -20 vs Rutgers) and linesmaker's are trying to make this week a little easier for them at -11.5. I'm not buying it.
Auburn -11.5
Are you kidding me? Vandy should be 2-0 going into this game, and beat the heck out of Tenn-Chat last week, while Mr. Tuberville has yet to score a TD and has converted ONE FG in the red zone. Did I mention Auburn is laying chalk on the road to the tune of a TD+FG+SAFETY? I'll play Auburn this week hoping they can turn it around vs a sub-par Vandy team coming off of an offensive showcase. It helps that this is the first conference game for Auburn and they can "redeem" themselves in some form.
Oregon State -21
I had the opportunity to watch NM state play vs Texas and I give them credit. They have a lot of heart and came out with some fire. However, they lack the overall talent and depth to hang with a big conference squad. They shuttled a few QB's in here and there, and the majority of their offense against UT came from QB draws and option keepers. Oregon State disappointed on the road vs Fresno State last week, but look for them to bounce back at home here. It's interesting to see Texas favored by 29 at home vs the Aggies, and Oregon State getting enough respect to chalk up 3 TD's. Derek Anderson will shine.
Kentucky +14
Line has dropped to 13.5 at some places which is odd to me, but I'll take the 2 TD's and give it a try. Bama showed they can play with the big boys last week, in a game where many thought they could have pulled the upset. That being said, put the Murray State game aside for KY, and factor in a beating they got at home vs Louisville and you have to question why Bama is only laying 14 at home in the SEC opener. This game will be close, Kentucky is a solid team to play as spoiler and they should not be taken lightly. See Memphis vs Ole Miss last week.
Eastern Michigan +19.5
What is Akron doing laying 19.5 points? E Mich is bad, but not 19.5 points bad. Akron is getting too much credit for their game last week at Wisc, and the line is following. Value = Eastern Michigan.
Other leans that I decided to lay off of:
Troy State +11
Arizona +11.5
Texas -13.5
Georgia Tech +24
