Wish I had posted last week. Very profitable, but since I didn't post I'm 0-0.
This week I have:
Seattle/ SF- Under 39.5. This one is still dropping. I'm having a hard time seeing how these two teams score. I have seen them play many times over the past 3-4 years, and the only time it goes over 40 is when there are TO scores. Seattle won a game last year that way and the game went over. I believe that in the last 3 years these two are 1-5 or 2-4 on under 40- some games way under 40. Seattle in my mind has the best defense in the NFL, and they play like crazed killers when at home. But their offense has struggled over the past many weeks. Their WRs are having trouble getting any separation from DBs. Lynch had a monster game vs. NO, but has not been himself late in the year. SF will stop him as they do most running backs. SF's D is probably the second best D in the league although they are less likely to take risks. They are amazingly consistent for 4 quarters though. In the Carolina game, they shook off the Panther drives of the 1st half, and just continued to play their game. Never get rattled. SF's offense has trouble getting Gore running room, and Kapernick has been somewhat inconsistent. Against Seattle's D, this will be more true. Believe me, FGs will be huge in this game. Neither coach will hesitate to take the FG, knowing their defense can protect a 3 or 6 point lead.
Denver-3.5 (-125). Bet this earlier in the week too. I have less on this game only because of the Denver defensive injuries. However, the Broncos dominated the SD game, no matter what the score was. Their defense looked very good for most of the game and it's obvious they have some depth. SD has played as well as any team in the NFL in the past 5-6 games, but looked completely overmatched for 3 quarters. I really like that Denver is at home here, and will face another injury riddled defense. The Patriots are an excellent bad weather team, and Brady is an excellent bad weather QB. This is one of the reasons they knocked off the Colts last week. They were also at home, where they are always tough; and the Colts finally had their good fortune run out. By the 4th quarter, they looked gassed and ready to call it a day. They rely on Luck and Hilton way too much. The Patriots just don't have enough receiving options. Even though they have looked great in their last 2 games running the ball, I think Denver DC will focus his defense all week on limiting it. The running game wasn't really that successful prior to the Buffalo game, and the Colts are dreadful on run defense. Meanwhile Manning has many offensive options, and a great OL too(although the Pats OL is also very good). I really like this game at 3, but just can't give up that much juice.
This week I have:
Seattle/ SF- Under 39.5. This one is still dropping. I'm having a hard time seeing how these two teams score. I have seen them play many times over the past 3-4 years, and the only time it goes over 40 is when there are TO scores. Seattle won a game last year that way and the game went over. I believe that in the last 3 years these two are 1-5 or 2-4 on under 40- some games way under 40. Seattle in my mind has the best defense in the NFL, and they play like crazed killers when at home. But their offense has struggled over the past many weeks. Their WRs are having trouble getting any separation from DBs. Lynch had a monster game vs. NO, but has not been himself late in the year. SF will stop him as they do most running backs. SF's D is probably the second best D in the league although they are less likely to take risks. They are amazingly consistent for 4 quarters though. In the Carolina game, they shook off the Panther drives of the 1st half, and just continued to play their game. Never get rattled. SF's offense has trouble getting Gore running room, and Kapernick has been somewhat inconsistent. Against Seattle's D, this will be more true. Believe me, FGs will be huge in this game. Neither coach will hesitate to take the FG, knowing their defense can protect a 3 or 6 point lead.
Denver-3.5 (-125). Bet this earlier in the week too. I have less on this game only because of the Denver defensive injuries. However, the Broncos dominated the SD game, no matter what the score was. Their defense looked very good for most of the game and it's obvious they have some depth. SD has played as well as any team in the NFL in the past 5-6 games, but looked completely overmatched for 3 quarters. I really like that Denver is at home here, and will face another injury riddled defense. The Patriots are an excellent bad weather team, and Brady is an excellent bad weather QB. This is one of the reasons they knocked off the Colts last week. They were also at home, where they are always tough; and the Colts finally had their good fortune run out. By the 4th quarter, they looked gassed and ready to call it a day. They rely on Luck and Hilton way too much. The Patriots just don't have enough receiving options. Even though they have looked great in their last 2 games running the ball, I think Denver DC will focus his defense all week on limiting it. The running game wasn't really that successful prior to the Buffalo game, and the Colts are dreadful on run defense. Meanwhile Manning has many offensive options, and a great OL too(although the Pats OL is also very good). I really like this game at 3, but just can't give up that much juice.
