Playing the dog moneyline and the favorite run line

letsgohoosiers · Jun 10, 2009

I'm thinking this is profitable.

27.5% of games are decided by one run. Of those 27.5%, we can expect the favorite to win 57.3% of the time.

That means you'll have a losing bet (favorite winning by one run) 15.75% of the time.

On average, you're laying +136 for a dog, and getting +140 on a favorite. You'll profit $38.83 each game you play and don't lose. When you lose, you're ling $199.17. That's a lay of -512.9281 per game for something hitting 84.25%.

$38.83 X .8425 = $32.71
$199.17 X .1575 = -$31.37
Profit per game = $1.34
Games in a season = 4860
Profit per season = $6533.18

In the long run, you've got the edge, especially if you shop for lines.

Let's backtrack it for last year using Sportsdatabase.

There were 1326 games decided by one run in 2008. Favorites had a 369-294 record in the one run games (55.6%). That means you would have lost 369 games (favorite won by only one run), and won 294 games (dog won by one run) + 717 (dog won by 2+ runs) + 994 (favorite won by 2+ runs). That's a 2005-369 record at (NOTE: DATA IS UNRELIABLE - SPORTSDATABASE TAKES OUT GAMES AT RANDOM IN QUERIES, THIS NUMBER SHOULD BE HIGHER)

-512.9281*369 = -189270.46
100*2005 = 200500
Profit = $11,229.54

NickelsAndDimes · Jun 10, 2009

can u put this into English a little more?

also how much are we to bet doing this? just 100$ on the dog and 100$ on the RL for every game every night? and profit 11,000$ by seasons end?

a153 · Jun 10, 2009

It wont work. Many people have tried this theory.

Funnyb25 · Jun 10, 2009

a153 said:
It wont work. Many people have tried this theory.

anything to back that statement up? or are you going off seeing it first hand?

Funnyb25 · Jun 10, 2009

only way you lose money is when the fav wins by 1..... which isnt that often... what do you have to back up it not working? It is a lot on the line for each day of betting...

a153 · Jun 10, 2009

You think he's the first person who thought of this? I know people who have tired it, its just not worth it.

Funnyb25 · Jun 10, 2009

i didnt say it was worth it or successful. i was just asking what you knew about it since ur so sure... ur always so snappy...

fallow · Jun 10, 2009

sports betting king- alfred kelley

Hello everyone, i think these strategies wont last over the long haul. For those who want to make a luxurious living with sports betting. It is best to not utilize strategies such as this. It is better to simply pick which team will win on the money line. The best way to become successful in this arena is to network with already successful sports bettors. If you are interested in making extra money, playing the dog moneyline and the favorite money line will be helpful. But if you are looking to make not just a living, but A VERY VERY NICE LIVING WHICH 99 PERCENT OF THE WORLD DONT ENJOY. Follow my lead, and you wont go wrong.

a153 · Jun 10, 2009

lol my bad. Its not worth the risk/reward

Funnyb25 · Jun 10, 2009

fallow said:
Hello everyone, i think these strategies wont last over the long haul. For those who want to make a luxurious living with sports betting. It is best to not utilize strategies such as this. It is better to simply pick which team will win on the money line. The best way to become successful in this arena is to network with already successful sports bettors. If you are interested in making extra money, playing the dog moneyline and the favorite money line will be helpful. But if you are looking to make not just a living, but A VERY VERY NICE LIVING WHICH 99 PERCENT OF THE WORLD DONT ENJOY. Follow my lead, and you wont go wrong.

ur a tool

fallow · Jun 10, 2009

That's alright. Success is all about learning from your mistakes. I happen to have been through many failures with sports betting, and have made it to the top of the ladder. And for those who want to make a very good living with sports betting. Check back here at the rxforum daily for my sports picks, and you will be happy that you did!

hustlehard · Jun 10, 2009

Hey, i used this technique recently one night when i was desperate to make back 30 or 40 backs i had lost earlier in the night. To say the least, it was terrifying risking 200 bucks in order to win 30. I definitely would not recommend exposing so much of my bank roll on a constant basis. This is just a guess, but wouldn't it be safer to just bet the highest moneyline favorite every night?

jammanxc · Jun 10, 2009

just dont play the west-coast swing games in which most games are decided by 1 run......

fallow · Jun 10, 2009

First off- you want to implement sports money management in your betting strategies. Second off- i think betting the highest money line favorite is not good for the long haul. 1. Because it wont win consistently, and 2. When you do lose, you will lose a lot due to the lines. Successful sports bettors work hard from every possible angle to make a logical sports pick. They dont pick the highest money line favorites. Now if you have dreams of being financially independent, that strategy that you said wont work. But if you follow me, you will be financially independent. I have great networking and the saying is still true. "It is not what you know, but who you know."

jammanxc · Jun 10, 2009

fallow said:
First off- you want to implement sports money management in your betting strategies. Second off- i think betting the highest money line favorite is not good for the long haul. 1. Because it wont win consistently, and 2. When you do lose, you will lose a lot due to the lines. Successful sports bettors work hard from every possible angle to make a logical sports pick. They dont pick the highest money line favorites. Now if you have dreams of being financially independent, that strategy that you said wont work. But if you follow me, you will be financially independent. I have great networking and the saying is still true. "It is not what you know, but who you know."

you had the dodgers -220 ML today lol....

MinnesotaEconMajor · Jun 10, 2009

If anything, it would probably work best on higher totals since there is a greater chance for higher margins of victory. I still think it's a long term failure, though.

fallow · Jun 10, 2009

I did have the dodgers today. But i didn't pick them based on the fact that they were favorites. I picked them based on a lot of information i accumulated personally on them, that they were going to win. And responding to the other individual- yes it is long term failure.

threesixmafia · Jun 10, 2009

His math seems sound. And until anybody can disapprove it otherwise, you guys are just talking bullshit. Here's a guy who took the time to look into something, and did some calculations. Now if anybody here can prove him wrong, very welcome to, and probaly save him and other people some money.

But until then just calling this bullshit without pointing anything is just trolling. Come up with something substantial then talk.

fallow · Jun 10, 2009

I am not saying that his math is not sound, I am simply saying for those who want to get wealthy with sports betting, that illustration he gave wont get you close. In order to get wealthy you must surround yourself around successful people.

threesixmafia · Jun 10, 2009

fallow said:
I am not saying that his math is not sound, I am simply saying for those who want to get wealthy with sports betting, that illustration he gave wont get you close. In order to get wealthy you must surround yourself around successful people.

That's a lot of pomp for someone with 16 posts. I'm not saying you're not good. But you haven't proved to NOBODY, anything yet. Let your bets do the talking, not your mouth, any bettor knows that.