Playing Only Big Dogs

[dxn0401]

I have followed the stats on this for a little while and the results are good enough to play on a regular basis until it changes at least. Feel free to follow or watch or comment. There is NO research in these picks at all. I am just blindly taking the teams who are 18 points or more dogs. If I can get lines on the games I will add them on here. Wish me luck.


YTD 0-0

Florida Intl @ Georgetown +29.5 ( 1 Unit )
Wyoming @ UCLA +19.5 (1 Unit )
Idaho St @ Arizona St +21.5 (1 Unit )
Portland St @ Gonzaga +20 (1 Unit)

 

[thefriedone]

Hey, be careful with these. I think I did a little more research on this topic than you because my numbers (as of about a week ago maybe) for the season have teams with a +18 spread or higher covering only about 54% of the time (out of 100 games).

However, if you want a system like this, consider the following. Teams with a +24 or greater spread have covered 63% of the time (out of 30 games). Teams with a +27 or greater spread have covered almost 69% of the time (out of just 16 games). And, the kicker, teams with a +30 or greater spread have covered 100% of the time (in 8 games)!

Note that all these numbers are counting the closing line, which almost always moves in favor of the underdog since Joe Public likes to bet on the big name team, even laying 30 points. I usually wait until the last second to bet so I'll get the best line. Case in point: I bet Loyola-Marymount +30.5 against UCLA last week and lost the bet by a half point. The closing line was something like +32 or +33, so I would have been a winner had I been more patient.

Anyway, do whatever you want, but I will be betting a few units with you on FLA INTL tonight (hopefully with a spread of +31 or so). Gl tonight.

 

[GimmeDattt]

I wouldn't play any of these systems like this. In the long run its going to balance out 50-50 and your going to lose the juice. There will be profitable streaks and some bad streaks but I think it will always end 50-50.

 

[dxn0401]

No doubt I am probably jumping on this at the wrong time as it has been on a real hot streak lately. I would assume that lines on games like this are a little inflated due to everyone wanting to bet on the big name school.

It really makes games frustrating when you are betting on teams shooting 5% from 3 point land for the game or 18% from the field.

Worth a shot if for fun than for nothing else.

Thanks for the input and for looking out for my bottom line.

 

[thefriedone]

I think you're right about the lines being inflated against big name schools. That's why it's important to wait till the last minute to bet to get the biggest spread you can.

GimmeDattt, I really don't think the +30 spread games so far this season are a fluke, or will even out to 50-50. Assuming a 50% chance of winning each of those games, winning 8 in a row would happen with a probability of: (0.5)^8 = 0.00390625 or about 0.3% of the time. Sounds unlikely...

 

[dxn0401]

0-1 Today -1 Unit

Idaho St lost by 35

 

[dxn0401]

YTD 1-3 -3.1 Units

Florida Intl @ Georgetown +29.5 ( 1 Unit ) Lose
Wyoming @ UCLA +19.5 (1 Unit ) Lose
Idaho St @ Arizona St +21.5 (1 Unit ) Lose
Portland St @ Gonzaga +20 (1 Unit) WOW won outright!

 

[dxn0401]

YTD 1-3 -3.1 Units

Friday 12-27

Fairfield @ Connecticut +23.5 (1 Unit)

 

[HesAHighFlyer]

Fairfield aint bad, looking to see a cover here but perhaps you should factor home court into the equation.. it will also be tricky to track as many books push games off the board that are this one sided. I would expect going into conference play it will be hard to find 20+ pt dogs, but i definately will try to follow