play along closing week wednesday

[mazeltrick]

ok, been a rather ho-hum del mar meet with few truly scintillating performances, save for perhaps roman ruler and kela.

no matter, let's wager away on a hazy wednesday.

r1: i'm backing comebacking carthage, who will either wire this field or run dead last from the rail. ellis has struggled, but he has only one pace foe to deal with in rapidough and i've never liked ditch digger.

 

[mazeltrick]

nice way to start off the week with carthage powerhousing home at nearly 6/1.

r2: a weak maiden claiming crew tries to negotiate 8.5 furlongs without collapsing. i generally prefer horses at this level who have some speed, but the favoritre is going to be chanel isalnds who has been bet every single time out and has run poorly each time w/ the exception of her debut. i'm going to back, aircobra, who clunked up second behind runaway winner redmeansgo, but this is such a listless field and right now she's 10/1!!

 

[mazeltrick]

well, aircobra ran her race but chanel islands finally found a group she could handle. 'islands is certain play against in her next race against winners.

r3: this is a very interesting group of grizzled turf sprinters and there isn't a ton of speed signed on in here. i think i'll back slew's prince who should fire his best shot third off the layoff for sise.

 

[mazeltrick]

hmn. we're going the wrong way here- winner in the first, 2nd in the second, and third place finisher in the third.

i like brief contact in here as this one should do very well around two turns in her second start for canani.

 

[mazeltrick]

ugh. our choice, brief contact, gave us only a brief thrill and did end up fourth. perhaps my selection here, little foxy baby is doomed to run fifth in here. 'baby is taking all the early money, so she appears well meant and draws to the outside of her pace rivals. the other one of interest is the rail horse, conceal the deal who goes first off the claim for sadler.

 

[mazeltrick]

race 6:

they're betting the canani import like she can't lose, so i'm going to play against her and back seeking the heart, who is bred up and down to run long and offers the best value in here.

 

[mazeltrick]

two straight odds on choices go down in flames and now we move to the finale, where i like a a first timer from the warren stute barn, singing memo. she's bet down a little from her 12/1 morning line right now, but we should still get a decent price on her in a race that came up surprisingly tough for the $25k level.

 

[miamiman]

some good stuff in this thread, very solid.

Mazel, in the breeders cup turf ,the vegas books have Doyen @ 8-1 was 10's 2 days ago, this horse will be 6/4 on the day, it will take a decent horse to beat him. just hope they don't run him in the French Arc instead which i doubt.

have you saw anything you like at stand out prices for the breeders cup weekend?

thanks

 

[mazeltrick]

miamiman, good to hear from you. unfortunately, i haven't really seen any big prices that i think could step up and win on BC day, but will be looking around a bit in the next few weeks. the euros should dominate the turfing.

 

[miamiman]

ok Cheers,Tapit is on interesting horse as well at a big price #33's.

 

[HerzvanRentle]

I'm not so sure Doyen will run in the Turf. He goes for the Irish Champion Stakes this weekend and then to the Arc. If he wins the Arc (currently 2/1) there is NO reason to go for the Turf. It would be on short rest and frankly its not a bigger race. They might go for the Classic with him as a shot to nothing just like they did with Sakhee, to attempt to gain some dirt stallion pedigree before retirement. If he loses the Arc then they might go for the Turf, but I wouldn't be buying any future ticket on him for the Turf just now.

 

[miamiman]

I doubt he will go to the Arc - the ground is all wrong for him, they would be stupid in running him in the Arc , no chance with the ground - no chance buddy.

Day Flight @ 33's each way for the Arc, only a 3 year old but this horse has a serious engine, massive price, already backed this horse to win about 15 grand - needs a prep pretty soon though

 

[HerzvanRentle]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by miamiman:
I doubt he will go to the Arc - the ground is all wrong for him, they would be stupid in running him in the Arc , no chance with the ground - no chance buddy.

Day Flight @ 33's each way for the Arc, only a 3 year old but this horse has a serious engine, massive price, already backed this horse to win about 15 grand - needs a prep pretty soon though <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You're essentially betting on the Paris weather here. I hope you have checked the racetimes over the past 15 years, it's 2/1 against being the soft/heavy ground that Day Flight likes. We'll no doubt see in due course about where Doyen goes.

 

[HerzvanRentle]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Herz van Rentle:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by miamiman:
I doubt he will go to the Arc - the ground is all wrong for him, they would be stupid in running him in the Arc , no chance with the ground - no chance buddy.

Day Flight @ 33's each way for the Arc, only a 3 year old but this horse has a serious engine, massive price, already backed this horse to win about 15 grand - needs a prep pretty soon though <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

You're essentially betting on the Paris weather here. I hope you have checked the racetimes over the past 15 years. It's about 2/1 soft, 2/1 good and 2/1 fast. We'll no doubt see in due course about where Doyen goes. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[miamiman]

the universe is in chaos at the moment, it will be pissing down in France for this Race

 

[miamiman]

Doyen take out of the ARC betting