Vegas insider Todd Fuhrman says several pitchers are overpriced early in the season, and you can profit by fading them in the right spots. Here are his most overvalued hurlers.
For bettors the pageantry of MLB's first week is merely a blip on the radar when you identify overvalued or undervalued arms for the long summer months ahead.Professionals trust their numbers, working all offseason to isolate pitchers to bet on or against before the market catches up. In some instances, the market never adjusts for current form (think Corey Kluber last year, who lost bettors $1,747 if they bet him blindly in all 32 starts) and it works to the bettor's benefit.
The key is understanding how long to bet on or against these guys before prices begin to reflect reality instead of perception. Unfortunately, one of my primary go-against targets this year, Zack Greinke, is already off to a horrific start, yet I believe there will be more opportunities to oppose him in coming weeks. So we'll start there with this fade list.
Now I have to add this caveat: Blindly fading a certain pitcher no matter what isn't a recipe for long-term success. These are merely guys who, in my opinion, will be money burners for the first few months of the 2016 campaign.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
Next start: at Padres (James Shields) Friday, April 15
Greinke left the paradise and sunshine of SoCal for the sweltering summer temperatures of the Arizona desert this offseason. With that move came a massive change in surroundings from a pitcher-friendly ballpark at Chavez Ravine to the launching pad known as Chase Field.
Greinke dazzled last season, leading the NL in ERA at 1.66. But he was aided immensely by career lows in BABIP of .229 and a strand rate of just under 87 percent. Regardless of where he pitched in 2016, those numbers were bound to regress.
Add a hitter-friendly park into the equation and a snowball effect at the betting window could be expected. Chase Field's dimensions don't allow pitchers to be priced at the levels we've grown accustomed to seeing with Greinke recently. As long as his name commands pricing like a Top-10 arm, professionals will look to fade him whenever opportunity presents itself.
Note: Fading Greinke in a pitcher-friendly environment like San Diego this Friday may not offer nearly the same value as it does at Chase Field.
Yovani Gallardo, Baltimore Orioles
Next start: at Red Sox (David Price) Monday, April 10
While he won't command prices like elite starting pitchers, betting against the one-time Brewers ace will be profitable. Gallardo's strikeout rate has declined since 2009; he's become more of a finesse pitcher with declining stuff.
Pitching to contact, especially during the summer months, won't work in the humidity of Camden Yards.
I'm not high on the Orioles as a team this season and Gallardo, despite being a coveted offseason acquisition, will be good fade bait for bettors willing to remain patient with an inevitable regression.
Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
Next start: at Padres (TBA) Saturday, April 16
I know fans in Arizona will look at my list and think I'm unjustly coming after their two biggest offseason acquisitions.
There's good reason I'm anti-Diamondbacks; it harkens back to a ballpark that doesn't allow for high-priced mediocre starters.
Miller has the dubious distinction of producing an ERA that is lower than what sabremetrics suggest every season since his major league debut.
I know he's only 25, but until the luster of Arizona being a contending team wears off, a fade of Miller ranks right up there with fading his teammate.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Next start: vs. Reds (Brandon Finnegan) Saturday, April 16
At 34 years old, it's not a leap of faith to say the talented righty's best years are already in the rear view. Tack onto that a return from injury and we have the perfect recipe, at least early in the year, for going against a supposed ace.
This isn't all on Wainwright; the Cardinals are poised to take a step back from their impressive 2015 campaign.
We've seen the market move against Waino in both his starts this season -- that's not coincidence.
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
Next start: TBD, currently on 15-day DL
Ross is the most interesting case on this list, given he's in the prime of his career and possesses an elite wipeout slider.
However, he plays for a bad team.
When he's listed as a favorite, he's a sure-fire guy to avoid because the Padres offense and bullpen won't do him any favors.
Ross will make you money as a dog, especially for five-inning wagers, but avoiding him as a favorite will prevent bankroll erosion once he returns from his right shoulder inflammation.
For bettors the pageantry of MLB's first week is merely a blip on the radar when you identify overvalued or undervalued arms for the long summer months ahead.Professionals trust their numbers, working all offseason to isolate pitchers to bet on or against before the market catches up. In some instances, the market never adjusts for current form (think Corey Kluber last year, who lost bettors $1,747 if they bet him blindly in all 32 starts) and it works to the bettor's benefit.
The key is understanding how long to bet on or against these guys before prices begin to reflect reality instead of perception. Unfortunately, one of my primary go-against targets this year, Zack Greinke, is already off to a horrific start, yet I believe there will be more opportunities to oppose him in coming weeks. So we'll start there with this fade list.
Now I have to add this caveat: Blindly fading a certain pitcher no matter what isn't a recipe for long-term success. These are merely guys who, in my opinion, will be money burners for the first few months of the 2016 campaign.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
Next start: at Padres (James Shields) Friday, April 15
Greinke left the paradise and sunshine of SoCal for the sweltering summer temperatures of the Arizona desert this offseason. With that move came a massive change in surroundings from a pitcher-friendly ballpark at Chavez Ravine to the launching pad known as Chase Field.
Greinke dazzled last season, leading the NL in ERA at 1.66. But he was aided immensely by career lows in BABIP of .229 and a strand rate of just under 87 percent. Regardless of where he pitched in 2016, those numbers were bound to regress.
Add a hitter-friendly park into the equation and a snowball effect at the betting window could be expected. Chase Field's dimensions don't allow pitchers to be priced at the levels we've grown accustomed to seeing with Greinke recently. As long as his name commands pricing like a Top-10 arm, professionals will look to fade him whenever opportunity presents itself.
Note: Fading Greinke in a pitcher-friendly environment like San Diego this Friday may not offer nearly the same value as it does at Chase Field.
Yovani Gallardo, Baltimore Orioles
Next start: at Red Sox (David Price) Monday, April 10
While he won't command prices like elite starting pitchers, betting against the one-time Brewers ace will be profitable. Gallardo's strikeout rate has declined since 2009; he's become more of a finesse pitcher with declining stuff.
Pitching to contact, especially during the summer months, won't work in the humidity of Camden Yards.
I'm not high on the Orioles as a team this season and Gallardo, despite being a coveted offseason acquisition, will be good fade bait for bettors willing to remain patient with an inevitable regression.
Shelby Miller, Arizona Diamondbacks
Next start: at Padres (TBA) Saturday, April 16
I know fans in Arizona will look at my list and think I'm unjustly coming after their two biggest offseason acquisitions.
There's good reason I'm anti-Diamondbacks; it harkens back to a ballpark that doesn't allow for high-priced mediocre starters.
Miller has the dubious distinction of producing an ERA that is lower than what sabremetrics suggest every season since his major league debut.
I know he's only 25, but until the luster of Arizona being a contending team wears off, a fade of Miller ranks right up there with fading his teammate.
Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
Next start: vs. Reds (Brandon Finnegan) Saturday, April 16
At 34 years old, it's not a leap of faith to say the talented righty's best years are already in the rear view. Tack onto that a return from injury and we have the perfect recipe, at least early in the year, for going against a supposed ace.
This isn't all on Wainwright; the Cardinals are poised to take a step back from their impressive 2015 campaign.
We've seen the market move against Waino in both his starts this season -- that's not coincidence.
Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
Next start: TBD, currently on 15-day DL
Ross is the most interesting case on this list, given he's in the prime of his career and possesses an elite wipeout slider.
However, he plays for a bad team.
When he's listed as a favorite, he's a sure-fire guy to avoid because the Padres offense and bullpen won't do him any favors.
Ross will make you money as a dog, especially for five-inning wagers, but avoiding him as a favorite will prevent bankroll erosion once he returns from his right shoulder inflammation.
